[Micele]

Indrukwekkender zijn bedragen die mogelijk te winnen zijn, $ 17 biljoen per jaar tot 2100.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econom...climate_change

De economische gevolgen van klimaatverandering variëren geografisch en zijn moeilijk precies te voorspellen. Onderzoekers hebben gewaarschuwd dat de huidige economische prognoses de effecten van klimaatverandering ernstig kunnen onderschatten, en wijzen op de behoefte aan nieuwe modellen die een nauwkeuriger beeld geven van mogelijke schade. Desalniettemin bleek uit een studie uit 2018 dat de potentiële wereldwijde economische winst als landen mitigatiestrategieën implementeren om te voldoen aan de 2 ° C-doelstelling van de Overeenkomst van Parijs, in de buurt ligt van 17 biljoen dollar per jaar tot 2100, vergeleken met een scenario met zeer hoge emissies. [2]

The economic impacts of climate change vary geographically and are difficult to forecast exactly. Researchers have warned that current economic forecasts may seriously underestimate the effects of climate change, and point to the need for new models that give a more accurate picture of potential damages. Nevertheless, one 2018 study found that potential global economic gains if countries implement mitigation strategies to comply with the 2 °C target set at the Paris Agreement are in the vicinity of US$17 trillion per year up to 2100 compared to a very high emission scenario.[2]

[2]

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2018EF000922

The Effects of Climate Change on GDP by Country and the Global Economic Gains From Complying With the Paris Climate Accord

Tom Kompas, Van Ha Pham, Tuong Nhu Che

First published: 13 July 2018 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000922 Citations: 108

Abstract

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a standard tool for policy analysis and forecasts of economic growth. Unfortunately, due to computational constraints, many CGE models are dimensionally small, aggregating countries into an often limited set of regions or using assumptions such as static price-level expectations, where next period's price is conditional only on current or past prices. This is a concern for climate change modeling, since the effects of global warming by country, in a fully disaggregated and global trade model, are needed, and the known future effects of global warming should be included in forward-looking forecasts for prices and profitability. This work extends a large dimensional intertemporal CGE trade model to account for the various effects of global warming (e.g., loss in agricultural productivity, sea level rise, and health effects) on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and levels for 139 countries, by decade and over the long term, where producers look forward and adjust price expectations and capital stocks to account for future climate effects. The potential economic gains from complying with the Paris Accord are also estimated, showing that even with a limited set of possible damages from global warming, these gains are substantial. For example, with the comparative case of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (4°C), the global gains from complying with the 2°C target (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) are approximately US$17,489 billion per year in the long run (year 2100). The relative damages from not complying to Sub-Sahara Africa, India, and Southeast Asia, across all temperature ranges, are especially severe.

Key Points

• The global economic gains from complying with the Paris Climate Accord are shown to be substantial across 139 countries

• With the comparative case of RCP8.5 (4°C), the global gains from complying with the 2°C target (RCP4.5) are US$17,489 billion per year

• The relative damages from not complying with the 2°C target to Sub-Sahara Africa, India, and Southeast Asia are especially severe

Plain Language Summary

This work shows considerable global economic gains from complying with the Paris Climate Accord for 139 countries. For example, with the comparative case of a temperature increase of four degrees, the global gains from complying with the 2° target are approximately US$17,489 billion per year in the long run (year 2100). The relative damages from not complying to Sub-Sahara Africa, India, and Southeast Asia are especially severe.