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Oud 7 juli 2017, 21:43   #1
Micele
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Standaard Studies aandeel E-wagens al aangepast na 1 jaar...

Door de vele aankondigingen van verscheidene constructeurs veel meer electrische wagens te produceren.

De eerdere voorspelling/schatting 2040 van het aandeel nieuw ingeschreven E-wagens wordt van 35% naar 54% gezet...
Citaat:
We estimate that EVs will account for 54% of new car sales by 2040, not 35% as previously forecast.
Citaat:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-accelerating

The Electric Car Revolution Is Accelerating
By Jess Shankleman 7 juli 2017 15:45 CEST From

- Electric cars will be as cheap as gasoline models by 2025
- Battery manufacturing capacity will triple in the next four years



The forecast is BNEF’s most bullish to date and is more aggressive than projections made by the International Energy Agency. Surging investment in lithium-ion batteries, higher manufacturing capacity at companies including Tesla Inc. and Nissan Motor Co., as well as emerging consumer demand from China to Europe support BNEF’s projections, which also include:

In just eight years, electric cars will be as cheap as gasoline vehicles, pushing the global fleet to 530 million vehicles by 2040

Electricity consumption from EVs will grow to 1,800 terawatt-hours in 2040, or 5 percent of global power demand, from 6 terawatt-hours in 2016

There's around 90 gigawatt hours of EV lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity online now, and this is set to rise to 270 gigawatt hours by 2021.

Charging infrastructure will continue to be an issue with bottlenecks capping growth in key Chinese, U.S. and European markets emerging in the mid-2030s



Lithium-ion cell costs have already fallen by 73 percent since 2010 and BNEF predicts innovation of battery manufacturers will accelerate and lead to further steep declines in average prices over the next two decades. While they won’t fall as fast as solar panels, it could still lead to suppliers getting squeezed as they compete for contracts, McKerracher said.

“There’s an element of competitive dynamics and a real possibility of oversupply in the lithium ion battery market that will serve to hammer down prices,” he said.

The world may need the equivalent of 35 of the so-called Gigafactories like the one built by Tesla founder Elon Musk in Nevada over the next 13 years to meet the power demands of electric cars, according to BNEF.
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Citaat:
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

BNEF’s annual long-term forecast of global electric vehicle (EV) adoption to 2040.

“The EV revolution is going to hit the car market even harder and faster than BNEF predicted a year ago. EVs are on track to accelerate to 54% of new car sales by 2040. Tumbling battery prices mean that EVs will have lower lifetime costs, and will be cheaper to buy, than internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in most countries by 2025-29.”

Highlights

1 Electric vehicles take majority share of new car sales

We estimate that EVs will account for 54% of new car sales by 2040, not 35% as previously forecast.

2 Tumbling battery prices to drive EV growth

The real take-off for EVs will happen in the second half of the 2020s due to plunging lithium-ion battery prices, which are set to fall by more than 70% by 2030.

3 Oil displacement ramps up

By 2040, EVs will displace 8 million barrels of transport fuel per day, and add 5% to global electricity consumption.

Download
__________________
De vuile waarheid over ICE (vanaf 1 min 35")
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mk-LnUYEXuM
Nederlandse versie: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kekJgcSdN38

Laatst gewijzigd door Micele : 7 juli 2017 om 21:49.
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