DE GROTE EURO ZONE CRISIS : The Endgame

[zonbron]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Sjaax

Paul de Grauwe legt goed uit waar de problemen zitten, vind ik.

Bron: http://www.standaard.be/artikel/deta...kelid=ED3IMI9V

Inderdaad, de agenda. Complete List Of European Sovereign Events Through The End Of 2011

We won't focus too much on the reasons why Deutsche Bank just cut its forecast for European 2012 GDP from +0.4% to -0.5%: needless to say it is yet another ploy to force the ECB's hand to print, and not even DB is ashamed to admit it: "The good news is that the worse the economic outlook becomes, the more likely it is the ECB will have to take more aggressive steps to deal with a compromised monetary transmission mechanism and the growing downside risks to price stability." So now that that is out of the way (and those who wish to read the whole thing can do so here), we can focus on what is actually relevant: the full event calendar from tomorrow until the end of the year, not only for sovereign bond issuance (there is plenty), but for all major sovereign events.

So for those who collect forward calendars of catalytic events, here is the definitive one through the end of the year to print and put up on the wall.

29 November: German Constitutional Court to rule on EFSF amendment law. Several weeks ago the Constitutional Court imposed a temporary injunction on Germany’s EFSF amendment law, overruling the government’s proposed 9-person parliamentary committee for taking rapid action decisions on EFSF deployment. If this ruling is upheld, the government will have to table an amendment and vote it through. We view this as technical only and do not anticipate problems. The 41-person parliamentary budget committees will make the decisions instead. This will be slightly less efficient.

29 November: Italy auction. Bonds.

29 November: Belgium auction. Bills.

29 November: Portuguese Budget. The final vote on the 2012 budget is due in parliament.

29-30 November: Eurogroup/ECOFIN Finance Ministers meetings. As of now, this is the last scheduled EU finance ministers meeting of 2011. On the formal agenda are bank capital requirements and the 9 December European Council meeting, specifically as regards economic policy.

December

December (tbd): New Greek loan programme to be approved. The 26 October statement from the European Council (heads of state) claimed the new loan programme would be approved by the end of the year and the bond exchange would take place at the beginning of 2012.

1 December: Draghi at European Parliament. ECB President Mario Draghi will present the 2010 ECB Annual Report to the European Parliament. This will be an opportunity to listen to the new ECB President’s views on the crisis, its resolution and the role the ECB can play.

1 December: Greek strike. The ADEDY and GSEE union bodies will hold the latest 24-hour strike against austerity measures.

1 December: Spain auction. Bonds.

1 December: France auction. Bonds.

2 December: Anglo-French summit. French President Sarkozy and British PM Cameron to hold annual summit meeting.

3 December: Greek budget. Discussion of 2012 Budget in parliament.

4 December: Slovenian parliamentary elections. After the defeat of the centre-left coalition, led by the Social Democrats (SD), in a confidence vote in September, opinion polls indicate a race between the centre-right Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), under the previous PM Janez Jansa, and two new parties: a centre-left party led by the mayor of Ljubljana, and a centrist party (Citizens' List) led by Gregor Virant, a former SDS minister of public administration. Virant who turns out second after SDS in most polls suffered a setback this week. It became public that he received unemployment compensation available to former ministers in the year after his term, despite earning a substantial income from consulting and lecturing. Although he redeemed extra payments immediately and legal consequences seem unlikely, his party may lose ground and put SDS in a clear lead. Election campaigns are dominated by domestic issues as Slovenia faces pressing structural reforms and a very weak recovery. High corporate indebtedness and sluggish growth weigh on the domestic banking sector. After recording a loss of EUR 113.9 m during the first 9 months of 2011 the largest domestic bank is heading for a third year of losses. It is under pressure to raise fresh capital and aims to collect EUR 400 m until early 2012. If private sources remain closed it may have to resort to the government which already holds a 45% share in the bank. Despite a general public sentiment opposing bail-outs in Europe, the country's weakness make open political opposition to closer European corporation unlikely

5 December: France auction. Bills.

6 December: Ireland’s 2012 Budget to be presented in parliament. The prior planned EUR3.6bn adjustment has increased to EUR3.8bn according to recent press reports, including a 2% increase in the standard VAT rate to 2%, a flat rate EUR100 household levy, but no income tax hikes. Revenue increases would yield EUR1.6bn. The majority of the fiscal manoeuvre will come from spending cuts.

7 December: Greek budget. Vote on 2012 Budget.

7-8 December: EU conservative party leaders meeting. Sarkozy, Merkel as well as the heads of Finland and Ireland, among others, will attend.

7 December: Portugal auction. Bills.

8 December: ECB Governing Council meeting. We expect the next rate cut to 1.0% to come in January, but the risk of back-to-back cuts, with the second cut in December already, cannot be ruled out given the speed at which the data flow is deteriorating. Updated staff macroeconomic projections will be published, including 2013 numbers for the first time.

9 December: European Council summit. The EU leaders will be due to hold their final scheduled summit meeting of 2011. EU President Herman Van Rompuy is expected to deliver proposals on limited EU Treaty change. These changes will most likely address Economic Policy Coordination (Articles 120 to 126 TFEU). One key element could be a closer monitoring of national fiscal policies by the European Commission.

12 December: Italy auction. Bills.

12 December: France auction. Bills.

13 December: Spanish parliament reconvenes.

13 December: Greece auction. Bills.

13 December: Spain auction. Bills.

14 December: Italy auction. Bonds.

14 December: Spain auction. Bonds.

15 December: France auction. Bonds.

20 December: Greece auction. Bills.

20 December: ECB longer term refinancing operations (LTROs) announcement date. This is the second of the two LTROs announced by the ECB on 6 October, this will have a maturity of approximately 13 months, to be conducted in December 2011. The allotment date is 21 December. The operations will be conducted as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment.

21 December: Portugal auction. Bills.

24 December: Spain auction. Bills.

27 December: France auction. Bills.

28 December: Italy auction. Bills.

29 December: Italy auction. Bonds.

19-31 December: Greek redemptions. E8.1bn of Greek government debts are due with E5.2bn consisting of a 3-year, zero-coupon special bond issued by the Hellenic Republic to support the liquidity of Greek banks (Law 3723/2008) in Dec 2008 (lending facility to draw liquidity from the ECB). These securities are not payable by the Greek state hence not include in public debt (or PSI v1). Therefore the true financing need from bond redemptions is E2.8bn (E8.1bn less E5.2bn).

HAPPY NEW YEAR

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Inderdaad @kelt en de kans dat op nieuwjaar een Euroland de Euro laat vallen is 50/50

One can listen to Eurocrats promising the moon and the stars, and that the zEUR0.PK will survive come hell or high water, or one can trade the probability of the Eurozone's breakup based on reality. For those who opt for the latter, they should head over to Intrade where the contract pricing the possibility of "Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" is now trading at perfectly even odds or 50%. In other words, the "upside benefit" of the EFSF, the ECB, the IMF and ultimately the Fed have been reduced to coin toss odds. Naturally, if there is a break up in the Eurozone the fallout will be massive and will likely lead to a far worse outcome than the freezing of money markets in the aftermath of the Lehman bankruptcy. In other words, the odds of capitalism surviving for just over a year form now are exactly fifty/fifty.

ZEROHEDGE - Tyler Durden's picture
InTrade Odds On Euro Collapse By End Of 2012 Now At 50%

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Het VK is besmet met de EURO malaise

Well today we are happy to report that the German diversion may have worked: the truth is that nobody appears to care about Germany. Instead what everyone does seem to care about, is the nation with the greatest combined debt (government, corporate and household) to GDP in the world. Yup. The UK." Following that, a quick Twitter update from this morning indicated something was again going on with the UK from the perspective of the world's most connected insiders: "UK's LLOYDS and RBS top of most active on Sigma X this morning." Sure enough, here's Fitch with what may well be a precursor to the bond vigilantes finally focusing their attention on the last, latest and greatest AAA credit.

FITCH: UK GOVT MAY BE MOST INDEBTED OF AAA SOVEREIGNS EX U.S. -BBG
FITCH: NEW UK FISCAL VIEWS 'SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION' VS MARCH - BBG
And the punchline: "the capacity of UK public finances to absorb adverse economic and financial shocks that would result in yet higher public debt while retaining its 'AAA' status has largely been exhausted"

ZEROHEDGE - Goldman's Sigma X Spot On Once Again: Predicts Imminent UK Contagion

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Het beest dat de (economische) wereld op zijn grondvesten doet daveren heeft een nieuwe naam, EUROGEDDON

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Bedrijven bereiden zich

Businesses plan for possible end of euro

By Tony Barber in London and Daniel Dombey in Istanbul
Activists of the Occupy Frankfurt movement have set up a fire place near the Euro sculpture in front of the European Central Bank

International companies are preparing contingency plans for a possible break-up of the eurozone, according to interviews with dozens of multinational executives.

Concerned that Europe’s political leaders are failing to control the spreading sovereign debt crisis, business executives say they feel compelled to protect their companies against a crash that can no longer be wished away. When German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Nicolas Sarkozy raised the prospect of a Greek exit from the eurozone earlier this month, it marked the first time that senior European officials had dared to question the permanence of their 13-year-old experiment with monetary union.


“We’ve started thinking what [a break-up] might look like,” Andrew Morgan, president of Diageo Europe, said on Tuesday. “If you get some much bigger kind of ... change around the euro, then we are into a different situation altogether. With countries coming out of the euro, you’ve got massive devaluation that makes imported brands very, very expensive.”

...

FT

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Voorbije nacht, in Brussels.

5.46pm: Finally, some news from Brussels - courtesy of David Gow. George Osborne headed off to Brussels straight after giving his autumn statement in parliament in London.

Eurozone ministers, who began meeting 90 minutes ago, are discussing plans to involve the European Central Bank in using its unlimited funds (in theory) to boost IMF lending to distressed sovereigns.

Here's what Didier Reynders, Belgian finance minister, said on his way in: "We will discuss with the ECB. The ECB is an independent institution, so we will put on the table some proposals and after that it is for the ECB to take the decision."

Jan Kees de Jager, his Dutch colleague, said that the main bailout find, the EFSF, could only be boosted 2.5 times at most (that is, to around €626bn, rather than the hoped-for €1tn) and added: ""We will have to look at the IMF, which can also make available additional funds for the emergency fund. I think countries in Europe and outside of Europe should be prepared to give more money to the IMF. Then you have more money but it's still not enough." Greece hopes they will now get their long-delayed "sixth tranche" - or €8bn - after tonight's meeting.

Eurozone officials are ignoring the doomsayers and talking up prospects for the EFSF, claiming that investors are still showing keen interest in it. None, apparently, has asked for more than 30% first-loss guarantee on their investment in loans to distressed countries - and the geographical spread is good. It's also claimed that the spread of investors, from hedge funds to sovereign wealth funds, is excellent. And, in a new twist, the investments could be tailored both to individual countries and to different maturities: so a long-life EFSF Hellas (Greece), say.

While other officials and even ministers are admitting that the firepower of the find can only be boosted 2.5 times at most, as we reported earlier, to, say, €625bn from the €250bn left, the talk on the margins of the meeting is of 3-5 times still or 20-30% loss guarantees. And, yes, the IMF is involved too...Could be a long evening....

GUARDIAN

[patrickve]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door zonbron

Het VK is besmet met de EURO malaise

... wat aantoont dat het niks met de Euro te maken heeft he...

[D'ARTOIS]

Er zijn nu Nederlandse politici die openlijk toegeven dat de Euro een en al vergissing is geweest en het betreuren er aan meegewerkt te hebben.

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Ron Paul over de FED-bailout van Europa

ZEROHEDGE - Ron Paul Statement On The Fed's Bailout Of Europe

Rather than calming markets, these arrangements should indicate just how frightened governments around the world are about the European financial crisis. Central banks are grasping at straws, hoping that flooding the world with money created out of thin air will somehow resolve a crisis caused by uncontrolled government spending and irresponsible debt issuance. Congress should not permit this type of open-ended commitment on the part of the Fed, a commitment which could easily run into the trillions of dollars. These dollar swaps are purely inflationary and will harm American consumers as much as any form of quantitative easing.

...

en

zerohedge - did-fed-leak-european-bailout-decision-monday-morning ?

Zerohedge - Did The Fed Just Buy Europe A Week?

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zerohedge - Egan Jones Downgrades France From AA- To A; Negative Watch, Sees Debt/GDP Rising From 91% to 117% By 2013

Only the first of many French downgrades, this time by the rating agency which is always ahead of the pack. "Disastrous trend and the worst has yet to come. Over the past two fiscal years, the Republic of France's debt has grown by 21% from EUR1.32 trillion to EUR1.59 trillion.

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Een grote bank bijna gevallen ?

zerohedge - Did A Large European Bank Almost Fail Last Night?


Need a reason to explain the massive central bank intervention from China, to Japan, Switzerland, the ECB, England and all the way to the US? Forbes may have one explanation: "It appears that a big European bank got close to failure last night. European banks, especially French banks, rely heavily on funding in the wholesale money markets. It appears that a major bank was having difficulty funding its immediate liquidity needs. The cavalry was called in and has come to the successful rescue." Granted the post is rather weak on factual backing and is mostly speculative, but it would certainly make sense. That said, it harkens back to our original question: just how bad was the situation if the global central banking cabal had to intervene all over again, and just what was not being told to the general public?

...

[Kodo Kodo]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door zonbron

Inderdaad @kelt en de kans dat op nieuwjaar een Euroland de Euro laat vallen is 50/50

Eind 2012 is wel nieuwjaar 2013, hè.

[zonbron]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Kodo Kodo

Eind 2012 is wel nieuwjaar 2013, hè.

Inderdaad beste @Kodo Kodo. Zeer opmerkzaam van U !

"Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" is now trading at perfectly even odds or 50%.

Bedankt !

You just made my 'YEAR' !

[zonbron]

Duitsland vs. la France en... Nederland.

ZEROHEDGE - Where Are The Ratings Agencies Before UK & German Banks Go Boom? How About Those Euro REITs? Agencies Anybody?

Last week I illustrated the interconnected EU master duo with the most ironic of divergent agendas: When The Duopolistic Owners Of The EU Printing Presses Disagree On The Color Of The Ink!
Basically, Germany and France are pulling in two different directions
trying to get off of a boat that will drown them both, regardless. Then I
posed the taboo question:
Are The Ultra Conservative Dutch Immune To Pan-European Pandemic
Contagion? Are You Safe During An Earthquake Because You Keep Your Shoes
Tied Snugly?

The Dutch are probably
in for a banging that the vast majority of the populace are not
expecting. The presentation below is a subset of the keynote speech that
I gave at the ING CRE Valuation Conference in Amsterdam last April.
Some may say it was quite prescient. I'd say it was a matter of paying
attention.

Before you peruse through the Power Points and related videos, glance over Interbank_Contagion_in_the_Dutch_Banking - 2006 (pdf) and then review Cross_Border_Bank_Contagion_in_Europe_- 2006 (pdf). It is apparent that I wasn't the only one who used calculators and common sense before it was too late. To wit:

We investigate interlinkages and contagion risks in the Dutch interbank market. Based on several data sources, including survey data, we estimate the exposures in the interbank market at bank level. Next, we perform a scenario analysis to measure contagion risks. We find that the bankruptcy of one of the large banks will put a considerable burden on the
other banks but will not lead to a complete collapse of the interbank market. The exposures to foreign counterparties are large and warrant further research.
The
following presentation shows not only Euro-area banks going bust but
European CRE as well. So, why aren't German and UK banks - and REITs
(yes, even Dutch REITs) on negative watch with the ratings agencies? And
even more interesting question is why isn't the industry that I prepped my subscribers for in regards to the next forensic report
beng put on watch by the ratings agencies? The quick answer is...
Because they know they'll get paid to come to a pile of smoldering ashes
with a fire hose, anyway. Let this be the official declaration: The man that called the fall of WaMu, CountryWide, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and GGP as well as the problems of about 32 regional US banks as well as the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis
(all while these enttities were investment grade and AAA rated) is now
calling BS to the ratings agencies as they fail to take it to the UK,
Germany and CRE. You heard it here first, and you'll probably hear an "I
told you so" in a few months as well.

...

[Kodo Kodo]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door zonbron

Inderdaad beste @Kodo Kodo. Zeer opmerkzaam van U !



Bedankt !

You just made my 'YEAR' !

Ik moet je teleurstellen, want even later vond ik een chronologisch andere, maar voor de rest dezelfde voorspelling: voor Kerstmis van dit jaar! Heb wel de link niet opgeslagen; in plaats daarvan mijn erewoord en verwijzing naar jullie zoekmachines.

[zonbron]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Kodo Kodo

Ik moet je teleurstellen, want even later vond ik een chronologisch andere, maar voor de rest dezelfde voorspelling: voor Kerstmis van dit jaar! Heb wel de link niet opgeslagen; in plaats daarvan mijn erewoord en verwijzing naar jullie zoekmachines.

Geen probleem hoor, kijk HIER even.

[eno2]

The Endgame

Forget it

[zonbron]

Nu de FED heeft beslist, in naam van de Amerikaanse belastingbetaler, het EFSF te spijzen met geld waar ze zelf niet over beschikken is er terug een beetje rust in Europa. Lang zal het natuurlijk niet duren.
Meer HIER, een artikel uit Reuters.


Ron Paul over de bailout : Ron Pauls Reaction to Newly Federal Reserve Bailout Of Europe

Nu deze kunstmatige rust vluchtig boven Europa hangt is het natuurlijk tijd voor 'DE GROTE BESLISSING'. Lang heeft het alvast niet op zich laten wachten...

Kijk hier, Merkel kondigt de fiscale unie in Eurozone aan.

De Duitse bondskanselier Angela Merkel heeft in de Bundestag gezegd dat we op weg zijn naar een fiscale Europese unie voor de eurozone. Het is volgens haar de enige manier om de eurocrisis te bestrijden. Ze gaat maandag samen met Sarkozy een concept voor de hervorming van de muntunie voorstellen.

...

Angela Merkel en de Franse president Nicolas Sarkozy willen blijkbaar maandag in Parijs een concept voor een hervorming van de muntunie voorstellen. Daarbij wordt gestreefd naar een zogeheten stabiliteitsunie van de zeventien eurolanden. (ESM !!!)

Zo, dat was onverwacht.

Remember: ESM: een staatsgreep in 17 landen


ESM_the_new_European_dictator

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Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door eno2

Forget it

Zo, wakker geworden? Nu het even rustig is dankzij de centjes van Uncle Sam en zijn belastingbetalers. Mooi. Een onderdeel van de crisis is reeds aan U voorbij gegaan. Maar onder ons, je hebt niets waardevol gemist Same business as usual, money out of thin air waarvoor de burger zal opdraaien.

Nu wachten op 9 December en dan hebben we met wat tegenslag een vervroegde invoering van het ESM. Blijven duimen. en Goede morgen.

[eno2]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door zonbron

Zo, wakker geworden? Nu het even rustig is dankzij de centjes van Uncle Sam en zijn belastingbetalers. Mooi. Een onderdeel van de crisis is reeds aan U voorbij gegaan. Maar onder ons, je hebt niets waardevol gemist Same business as usual, money out of thin air waarvoor de burger zal opdraaien.

Nu wachten op 9 December en dan hebben we met wat tegenslag een vervroegde invoering van het ESM. Blijven duimen. en Goede morgen.

http://www.courtfool.info/nl_ESM_de_...tator.htm:lol: