lyot
16 maart 2004, 16:26
U.S.-led invasion: All Arabs Kurds
Was right 48% 40% 87%
Was wrong 39 46 9
Liberated Iraq 42% 33% 82%
Humiliated Iraq 41 48 11
Presence of coalition forces:
Support 39% 30% 82%
Oppose 51 60 12
Attacks on coalition forces:
Acceptable 17% 21% 2%
Unacceptable 78 74 96
Personal Lives
On a personal level, seven in 10 Iraqis say things overall are going well for them — a result that might surprise outsiders imagining the worst of life in Iraq today. Fifty-six percent say their lives are better now than before the war, compared with 19 percent who say things are worse (23 percent, the same). And the level of personal optimism is extraordinary: Seventy-one percent expect their lives to improve over the next year.
Again there are regional and ethnic differences. In the Kurdish north, 70 percent say their lives overall are better than before the war; in the south, 63 percent. That declines to 54 percent in the central region, and falls under half — to 46 percent — in the greater Baghdad area, home to more than a quarter of Iraqis.
How Iraqis See Their Lives Overall
How things are going today: All North South Central Baghdad
Good 70% 85% 65% 70% 67%
Bad 29 14 34 28 32
Compared to a year ago, before the war:
Better 56% 70% 63% 54% 46%
Same 23 15 21 22 31
Worse 19 13 13 23 23
How they'll be a year from now:
Better 71% 83% 74% 70% 63%
Same 9 4 6 10 16
Worse 7 1 4 9 10
Locally, unhappiness is highest by far with the availability of jobs (69 percent say it's bad) and the supply of electricity (64 percent negative). Local schools are rated positively (by 72 percent), and smaller majorities give positive ratings to the availability of basic household goods and the adequacy of local crime protection. About half give positive ratings to the availability of medical care, clean water and household goods beyond the basics, and to local government.
Iraqis divide in their rating of the local security situation now, but strikingly, 54 percent say security where they live is better now than it was before the war. However, for some, local security clearly is a great concern; 22 percent call it the single biggest problem in their lives, more than any other mention ("no job" is second, 12 percent). Local security concerns peak in greater Baghdad, where they're cited by 36 percent as the top problem, compared to a low of 8 percent in Kurdistan.
Notably, across the country, no more than 26 percent say any of these conditions are worse now than a year ago; in each about four in 10 or more say things are better; and in each sizable majorities — mostly three-quarters — expect things to improve over the next 12 months.
There's political danger, of course, if these expectations go unmet.
Ratings of Specific Local Conditions
Today Compared to prewar Expectations 1-yr.
Good Bad Better Worse Same Better Worse Same
Schools 72% 26 47% 9 41 74 3 14
Household basics 56 41 47 16 35 76 3 10
Crime protection 53 44 50 21 26 75 4 11
Medical care 51 47 44 16 38 75 3 12
Clean water 50 48 41 16 40 75 4 13
Local gov't 50 38 44 16 29 69 4 12
Additional goods 49 46 44 17 35 75 3 10
Security 49 50 54 26 18 74 5 10
Electricity 35 64 43 23 32 74 5 11
Jobs 26 69 39 25 31 73 4 11
Security
While less of a local issue for many Iraqis, security at the national level is a vast concern; the public's top overall priority, by a huge margin, is "regaining public security in the country." Sixty-four percent give it "first priority" for the next 12 months; out of a dozen issues tested, no other even breaks into double digits.
Combining first, second and third priorities produces a more complete list: Eighty-five percent mention security in one of those slots; 55 percent, rebuilding the infrastructure; 30 percent, holding national elections; 30 percent, "ensuring that people can make a decent living," and about as many, "reviving the economy." Last on the list: "Dealing with members of the previous government," cited as a priority by only 2 percent.
National Priorities
First, second or third priority* First priority
Regaining public security 85% 64%
Rebuilding the infrastructure 55 7
Holding elections for national gov't 30 8
Ensuring that people can make a decent living 30 4
Reviving the economy 28 3
Regaining Iraqi governance 17 3
Ensuring that religious ideals are followed 16 3
Increasing oil production 13 2
Rebuilding the education system 10 1
Ensuring that Iraq could not be attacked from the outside 7 1
Giving people more say in their communities 3 1
Dealing with members of the previous government 2 1
*(Up to three answers accepted)
Coalition Forces
As noted, 51 percent oppose the presence of coalition forces — but that doesn't mean most want them withdrawn immediately, likely because of security concerns. Fifteen percent of Iraqis say the forces should leave the country now; by contrast, 36 percent say they should remain until a new government is in place; 18 percent, until security is restored.
How Long Should Coalition Forces Remain?
Until Iraq gov't is in place 36%
Until security is restored 18
Leave now 15
Six months or more 10
Few months 8
Just over three-quarters of Iraqis — 77 percent — say they personally never have had any encounter with coalition forces. Those who've had such encounters divide on the experience: about half call it a positive encounter; half, negative.
Politics
Politically, the survey finds that Iraqis overwhelmingly want their nation to remain united and centralized — 79 percent say so, compared with 14 percent who prefer a federated group of regional states, and 4 percent who want the country broken into separate nations. Among Iraqi Kurds, federated regional states — but not fully independent ones — are preferred.
Preferences for Iraq's Future Governance
All Arabs Kurds
Unified country, central government in Baghdad 79% 90% 26%
Regional states with a federal government 14 5 58
Divide into separate independent states 4 2 12
There is relatively little support for a religious theocracy — it's low on the list of preferred forms of government.
In one change from the first national poll in Iraq by Oxford Research International last fall, more now call for a "single strong Iraqi leader" — 47 percent say one will be needed a year from now, up from 27 percent previously. That's more than say "an Iraqi democracy" will be needed, now 28 percent (essentially unchanged).
This interest in a strong leader (not necessarily an undemocratic one) seems based in security concerns. In an open-ended follow-up, references to "freedom" dominate support for democracy, while those who express support for a single strong leader are more apt to cite the need for security and order in their country.
Iraq's Needs for Governance
In 1 year In 5 years
Single strong Iraqi leader 47% 35%
Iraqi democracy 28 42
Government of religious leaders 10 10
Group of strong Iraqi leaders 3 3
Government of experts/managers 2 2
Iraqi Governing Council 2 *
U.N. transition government 1 1
Government of Iraqi military leaders 1 *
Coalition Provisional Authority 1 1
In another question, without a time frame mentioned, democracy wins more support than two other options — a strong leader, but one who rules "for life"; or an Islamic state. Forty-nine percent choose democracy, 28 percent a "strong leader" and 21 percent an Islamic state.
Preferred Political System
Democracy 49%
Strong leader "for life" 28
Islamic state 21
As noted, more Iraqis express interest in politics — 54 percent, up from 39 percent in November — and 31 percent say their interest in politics has increased in the past year, three times the number who say it's decreased. Women are more apt than men to express interest in politics, though it's up among both groups.
Fragmentation
But other results suggest a level of political fragmentation that may challenge the country's political development, and throws into some question the notion of early elections. Despite interest in a strong leader, six in 10 Iraqis can't name a single national leader they trust (though even more can't name one they specifically mistrust).
Sixty-one percent express little or no trust in political parties, and nearly seven in 10 don't identify themselves with any party. The only parties that emerge with more than minimal support are either Islamist or Kurdish; respondents named more than 25 individual parties, but most had less than 1 percent support. (All were volunteered in response to an open-ended question.)
Political Party Support
Islamic Al-Dawa Party 14%
Kurdistan Democratic Party (PDK) 11
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) 10
Iraqi Islamic Party 6
Higher Council of Islamic Revolution 5
All other individual mentions 2 or fewer
Three-quarters say joining a political party is something they "would never, under any circumstances, do." Indeed, after decades of repression, more than a third, 36 percent, say that simply talking with other people about politics is something they would never do.
Political Engagement
Have done Might do Would never do
Talk with others about politics 46 15 36
Vote in elections 17 62 18
Join a political party 5 13 75
Take action like demonstrating 5 19 70
Use violence/force if needed * 12 82
Choices also are fragmented when Iraqis are asked which national leader they "trust the most" — more than 40 individual answers, each with few mentions. Only five received mentions from more than 3 percent:
• Ibrahim Al-Jaaferi, 8 percent (main spokesman for the Islamic Dawa Party);
• Massoud Barzani, 6 percent (leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party);
• Jalal Talabani, 6 percent (leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan);
• Sayyid Al-Sistani, 5 percent (the country's leading Shiite cleric, sometimes described as the most powerful man in Iraq); and
• Adnan Pachachi, 4 percent (foreign minister in the government deposed by Saddam Hussein in 1968, he founded the Independent Democratic Movement last month.)
One figure, meanwhile, was cited by 10 percent as a leader they "don't trust at all" — Ahmed Chalabi, former leader of the London-based Iraqi National Congress, now a member of the Iraqi Governing Council.
Trust
In terms of confidence in institutions, the gainers, as noted, are the Iraqi police — 68 percent express trust in it, up from 45 percent in November — and the Iraqi army, with 56 percent trust, up from 39 percent in the fall.
Confidence (not necessarily in political terms) peaks at 70 percent for "religious leaders." No other institutions receive majority trust; notable are the IGC, at 39 percent, the CPA, at 28 percent; and the U.S. and U.K. forces, at 25 percent.
Confidence in Institutions
% confident
Religious leaders 70%
The police 68
New Iraqi army 56
Local leaders in your community 50
Iraqi Media Network TV 50
Ministries in Baghdad 44
The press 43
The United Nations 40
The (Iraqi Governing) Council 39
The CPA 28
Political parties 28
U.S. and U.K. occupation forces 25
Model
Few Iraqis see non-Arab nations as a model for their country — just 6 percent cite the United States, 5 percent Japan — but many more want those nations to play a role in rebuilding Iraq. Among top mentions, 36 percent say the United States should play a role in rebuilding the country, 36 percent Japan, 22 percent the United Kingdom, 22 percent France, and 17 percent Germany.
Again in terms of a model for the country, 24 percent say it doesn't need one. The only other mention above single digits is the United Arab Emirates, a primarily Sunni federation of largely independent city-states (it was cited by 26 percent of Sunnis compared with 15 percent of Shia Muslims, but was top-ranked, by far, in both groups).
Religion
In religious terms, 96 percent of Iraqis are Muslim. In this poll 40 percent identified themselves as Sunni Muslim, 33 percent as Shia, and 23 percent did not cite an affiliation within Islam. Given the potential of sectarian strife and history of repression, there may be reluctance to discuss religious matters in Iraq; just 55 percent say they had even heard of "Iraq's religious leaders," in aggregate. Of those who say they had heard of them, 81 percent of Shia Muslims expressed confidence in these leaders, compared with 57 percent of Sunnis.
In another difference, 92 percent of Shiites prefer a unified Iraq with its central government in Baghdad, compared with two-thirds of Sunnis. And a quarter of Sunnis called attacks on coalition forces acceptable, compared with 11 percent of Shiites.
Demographics
The poll also paints a compelling demographic portrait of the Iraqi people. In just 20 percent of Iraqi households does the main breadwinner hold a full-time, outside job; 58 percent are self-employed. Average household income is the equivalent of $164 per month, for an average of eight people per household.
Eighty-one percent of households have a refrigerator; 44 percent, an air conditioner (the average daily high temperature in Baghdad in August is 108 degrees); 44 percent, a washing machine; 37 percent, a telephone; 21 percent, a still camera. There are disparities across regions, with the south of the country substantially poorer.
The poll was conducted among Iraqis age 15 and up; those under age 18 accounted for 10 percent of the total sample (their attitudes are not strikingly different from their elders'). Iraq is a young country: Sixty-six percent of Iraqis 15 and up are under age 35, compared with 36 percent of Americans age 15 and up.
Methodology
This poll was conducted for ABCNEWS, ARD, the BBC and NHK by Oxford Research International of Oxford, England. Interviews were conducted in person, in Arabic and Kurdish, among a random national sample of 2,737 Iraqis age 15 and up from Feb. 9-28. The results have a two-point error margin.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
Click here for a PDF version, including a full questionnaire.
Click here for a PDF file on the survey methodology.
Search the Web and ABCNEWS.com
Was right 48% 40% 87%
Was wrong 39 46 9
Liberated Iraq 42% 33% 82%
Humiliated Iraq 41 48 11
Presence of coalition forces:
Support 39% 30% 82%
Oppose 51 60 12
Attacks on coalition forces:
Acceptable 17% 21% 2%
Unacceptable 78 74 96
Personal Lives
On a personal level, seven in 10 Iraqis say things overall are going well for them — a result that might surprise outsiders imagining the worst of life in Iraq today. Fifty-six percent say their lives are better now than before the war, compared with 19 percent who say things are worse (23 percent, the same). And the level of personal optimism is extraordinary: Seventy-one percent expect their lives to improve over the next year.
Again there are regional and ethnic differences. In the Kurdish north, 70 percent say their lives overall are better than before the war; in the south, 63 percent. That declines to 54 percent in the central region, and falls under half — to 46 percent — in the greater Baghdad area, home to more than a quarter of Iraqis.
How Iraqis See Their Lives Overall
How things are going today: All North South Central Baghdad
Good 70% 85% 65% 70% 67%
Bad 29 14 34 28 32
Compared to a year ago, before the war:
Better 56% 70% 63% 54% 46%
Same 23 15 21 22 31
Worse 19 13 13 23 23
How they'll be a year from now:
Better 71% 83% 74% 70% 63%
Same 9 4 6 10 16
Worse 7 1 4 9 10
Locally, unhappiness is highest by far with the availability of jobs (69 percent say it's bad) and the supply of electricity (64 percent negative). Local schools are rated positively (by 72 percent), and smaller majorities give positive ratings to the availability of basic household goods and the adequacy of local crime protection. About half give positive ratings to the availability of medical care, clean water and household goods beyond the basics, and to local government.
Iraqis divide in their rating of the local security situation now, but strikingly, 54 percent say security where they live is better now than it was before the war. However, for some, local security clearly is a great concern; 22 percent call it the single biggest problem in their lives, more than any other mention ("no job" is second, 12 percent). Local security concerns peak in greater Baghdad, where they're cited by 36 percent as the top problem, compared to a low of 8 percent in Kurdistan.
Notably, across the country, no more than 26 percent say any of these conditions are worse now than a year ago; in each about four in 10 or more say things are better; and in each sizable majorities — mostly three-quarters — expect things to improve over the next 12 months.
There's political danger, of course, if these expectations go unmet.
Ratings of Specific Local Conditions
Today Compared to prewar Expectations 1-yr.
Good Bad Better Worse Same Better Worse Same
Schools 72% 26 47% 9 41 74 3 14
Household basics 56 41 47 16 35 76 3 10
Crime protection 53 44 50 21 26 75 4 11
Medical care 51 47 44 16 38 75 3 12
Clean water 50 48 41 16 40 75 4 13
Local gov't 50 38 44 16 29 69 4 12
Additional goods 49 46 44 17 35 75 3 10
Security 49 50 54 26 18 74 5 10
Electricity 35 64 43 23 32 74 5 11
Jobs 26 69 39 25 31 73 4 11
Security
While less of a local issue for many Iraqis, security at the national level is a vast concern; the public's top overall priority, by a huge margin, is "regaining public security in the country." Sixty-four percent give it "first priority" for the next 12 months; out of a dozen issues tested, no other even breaks into double digits.
Combining first, second and third priorities produces a more complete list: Eighty-five percent mention security in one of those slots; 55 percent, rebuilding the infrastructure; 30 percent, holding national elections; 30 percent, "ensuring that people can make a decent living," and about as many, "reviving the economy." Last on the list: "Dealing with members of the previous government," cited as a priority by only 2 percent.
National Priorities
First, second or third priority* First priority
Regaining public security 85% 64%
Rebuilding the infrastructure 55 7
Holding elections for national gov't 30 8
Ensuring that people can make a decent living 30 4
Reviving the economy 28 3
Regaining Iraqi governance 17 3
Ensuring that religious ideals are followed 16 3
Increasing oil production 13 2
Rebuilding the education system 10 1
Ensuring that Iraq could not be attacked from the outside 7 1
Giving people more say in their communities 3 1
Dealing with members of the previous government 2 1
*(Up to three answers accepted)
Coalition Forces
As noted, 51 percent oppose the presence of coalition forces — but that doesn't mean most want them withdrawn immediately, likely because of security concerns. Fifteen percent of Iraqis say the forces should leave the country now; by contrast, 36 percent say they should remain until a new government is in place; 18 percent, until security is restored.
How Long Should Coalition Forces Remain?
Until Iraq gov't is in place 36%
Until security is restored 18
Leave now 15
Six months or more 10
Few months 8
Just over three-quarters of Iraqis — 77 percent — say they personally never have had any encounter with coalition forces. Those who've had such encounters divide on the experience: about half call it a positive encounter; half, negative.
Politics
Politically, the survey finds that Iraqis overwhelmingly want their nation to remain united and centralized — 79 percent say so, compared with 14 percent who prefer a federated group of regional states, and 4 percent who want the country broken into separate nations. Among Iraqi Kurds, federated regional states — but not fully independent ones — are preferred.
Preferences for Iraq's Future Governance
All Arabs Kurds
Unified country, central government in Baghdad 79% 90% 26%
Regional states with a federal government 14 5 58
Divide into separate independent states 4 2 12
There is relatively little support for a religious theocracy — it's low on the list of preferred forms of government.
In one change from the first national poll in Iraq by Oxford Research International last fall, more now call for a "single strong Iraqi leader" — 47 percent say one will be needed a year from now, up from 27 percent previously. That's more than say "an Iraqi democracy" will be needed, now 28 percent (essentially unchanged).
This interest in a strong leader (not necessarily an undemocratic one) seems based in security concerns. In an open-ended follow-up, references to "freedom" dominate support for democracy, while those who express support for a single strong leader are more apt to cite the need for security and order in their country.
Iraq's Needs for Governance
In 1 year In 5 years
Single strong Iraqi leader 47% 35%
Iraqi democracy 28 42
Government of religious leaders 10 10
Group of strong Iraqi leaders 3 3
Government of experts/managers 2 2
Iraqi Governing Council 2 *
U.N. transition government 1 1
Government of Iraqi military leaders 1 *
Coalition Provisional Authority 1 1
In another question, without a time frame mentioned, democracy wins more support than two other options — a strong leader, but one who rules "for life"; or an Islamic state. Forty-nine percent choose democracy, 28 percent a "strong leader" and 21 percent an Islamic state.
Preferred Political System
Democracy 49%
Strong leader "for life" 28
Islamic state 21
As noted, more Iraqis express interest in politics — 54 percent, up from 39 percent in November — and 31 percent say their interest in politics has increased in the past year, three times the number who say it's decreased. Women are more apt than men to express interest in politics, though it's up among both groups.
Fragmentation
But other results suggest a level of political fragmentation that may challenge the country's political development, and throws into some question the notion of early elections. Despite interest in a strong leader, six in 10 Iraqis can't name a single national leader they trust (though even more can't name one they specifically mistrust).
Sixty-one percent express little or no trust in political parties, and nearly seven in 10 don't identify themselves with any party. The only parties that emerge with more than minimal support are either Islamist or Kurdish; respondents named more than 25 individual parties, but most had less than 1 percent support. (All were volunteered in response to an open-ended question.)
Political Party Support
Islamic Al-Dawa Party 14%
Kurdistan Democratic Party (PDK) 11
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) 10
Iraqi Islamic Party 6
Higher Council of Islamic Revolution 5
All other individual mentions 2 or fewer
Three-quarters say joining a political party is something they "would never, under any circumstances, do." Indeed, after decades of repression, more than a third, 36 percent, say that simply talking with other people about politics is something they would never do.
Political Engagement
Have done Might do Would never do
Talk with others about politics 46 15 36
Vote in elections 17 62 18
Join a political party 5 13 75
Take action like demonstrating 5 19 70
Use violence/force if needed * 12 82
Choices also are fragmented when Iraqis are asked which national leader they "trust the most" — more than 40 individual answers, each with few mentions. Only five received mentions from more than 3 percent:
• Ibrahim Al-Jaaferi, 8 percent (main spokesman for the Islamic Dawa Party);
• Massoud Barzani, 6 percent (leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party);
• Jalal Talabani, 6 percent (leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan);
• Sayyid Al-Sistani, 5 percent (the country's leading Shiite cleric, sometimes described as the most powerful man in Iraq); and
• Adnan Pachachi, 4 percent (foreign minister in the government deposed by Saddam Hussein in 1968, he founded the Independent Democratic Movement last month.)
One figure, meanwhile, was cited by 10 percent as a leader they "don't trust at all" — Ahmed Chalabi, former leader of the London-based Iraqi National Congress, now a member of the Iraqi Governing Council.
Trust
In terms of confidence in institutions, the gainers, as noted, are the Iraqi police — 68 percent express trust in it, up from 45 percent in November — and the Iraqi army, with 56 percent trust, up from 39 percent in the fall.
Confidence (not necessarily in political terms) peaks at 70 percent for "religious leaders." No other institutions receive majority trust; notable are the IGC, at 39 percent, the CPA, at 28 percent; and the U.S. and U.K. forces, at 25 percent.
Confidence in Institutions
% confident
Religious leaders 70%
The police 68
New Iraqi army 56
Local leaders in your community 50
Iraqi Media Network TV 50
Ministries in Baghdad 44
The press 43
The United Nations 40
The (Iraqi Governing) Council 39
The CPA 28
Political parties 28
U.S. and U.K. occupation forces 25
Model
Few Iraqis see non-Arab nations as a model for their country — just 6 percent cite the United States, 5 percent Japan — but many more want those nations to play a role in rebuilding Iraq. Among top mentions, 36 percent say the United States should play a role in rebuilding the country, 36 percent Japan, 22 percent the United Kingdom, 22 percent France, and 17 percent Germany.
Again in terms of a model for the country, 24 percent say it doesn't need one. The only other mention above single digits is the United Arab Emirates, a primarily Sunni federation of largely independent city-states (it was cited by 26 percent of Sunnis compared with 15 percent of Shia Muslims, but was top-ranked, by far, in both groups).
Religion
In religious terms, 96 percent of Iraqis are Muslim. In this poll 40 percent identified themselves as Sunni Muslim, 33 percent as Shia, and 23 percent did not cite an affiliation within Islam. Given the potential of sectarian strife and history of repression, there may be reluctance to discuss religious matters in Iraq; just 55 percent say they had even heard of "Iraq's religious leaders," in aggregate. Of those who say they had heard of them, 81 percent of Shia Muslims expressed confidence in these leaders, compared with 57 percent of Sunnis.
In another difference, 92 percent of Shiites prefer a unified Iraq with its central government in Baghdad, compared with two-thirds of Sunnis. And a quarter of Sunnis called attacks on coalition forces acceptable, compared with 11 percent of Shiites.
Demographics
The poll also paints a compelling demographic portrait of the Iraqi people. In just 20 percent of Iraqi households does the main breadwinner hold a full-time, outside job; 58 percent are self-employed. Average household income is the equivalent of $164 per month, for an average of eight people per household.
Eighty-one percent of households have a refrigerator; 44 percent, an air conditioner (the average daily high temperature in Baghdad in August is 108 degrees); 44 percent, a washing machine; 37 percent, a telephone; 21 percent, a still camera. There are disparities across regions, with the south of the country substantially poorer.
The poll was conducted among Iraqis age 15 and up; those under age 18 accounted for 10 percent of the total sample (their attitudes are not strikingly different from their elders'). Iraq is a young country: Sixty-six percent of Iraqis 15 and up are under age 35, compared with 36 percent of Americans age 15 and up.
Methodology
This poll was conducted for ABCNEWS, ARD, the BBC and NHK by Oxford Research International of Oxford, England. Interviews were conducted in person, in Arabic and Kurdish, among a random national sample of 2,737 Iraqis age 15 and up from Feb. 9-28. The results have a two-point error margin.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
Click here for a PDF version, including a full questionnaire.
Click here for a PDF file on the survey methodology.
Search the Web and ABCNEWS.com