Politics.be - Japanse carry trades komen weer op gang

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Nr.10

16 juni 2009 10:31

Japanse carry trades komen weer op gang

Hoe Japan tewerk gaat.
Lees bijgaand artikel.

Een verfrissende kijk van iemand uit de blogosfeer.

Nr.10

29 oktober 2009 19:37

De carry trade op de japanse yen werd ondertussen vervangen door een op de amerikaanse dollar.

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Investors worldwide are borrowing dollars to buy assets including equities and commodities, fueling “huge” bubbles

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“We have the mother of all carry trades”

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Roubini said the dollar will eventually “bottom out” as the Fed raises borrowing costs and withdraws stimulus measures including purchases of government debt. That may force investors to reverse carry trades and “rush to the exit,” he said.

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An asset “bust” may not occur for another year or two as a “wall of liquidity” pushes prices higher, Roubini said. In a carry trade, investors borrow in countries with low interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets.

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“This asset bubble is totally inconsistent with a weaker recovery of economic and financial fundamentals.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a0kGaq9yTF0A

Nr.10

25 november 2009 18:50

What Happens When a Carry Trade Blows Up?
23 nov 2009

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a “Dollar down/ everything else up” environment

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Consequently, the Dollar has become a MASSIVE carry trade, with virtually every bank/ financial institution in the world borrowing in Dollars and then funneling this “hot” money into the financial markets. Thus, we’ve seen a massive rise in stocks, oil, and gold, complimented by a disturbing drop in the US Dollar.

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Thus, today we are in an environment in which the US Dollar is THE carry trade of the world.

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Setting aside the facts that the IE clearly violated any principle of free markets, this episode stands as a HUGE warning signal to the world of what can happen if the Dollar carry trade blows up: a currency spike of 9% is the kind of thing that can trigger full blown systemic collapses.

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In plain terms, it’s truly incredible that the Dollar hasn’t fallen further already. The fact that it hasn’t, combined with the numerous bounces we’ve seen in the US currency in the last month, is a SERIOUS sign of US Dollar strength. If the Dollar begins a REAL rally moving above its 50-day moving average the entire inflation trade would blow up with stocks and commodities entering a free-fall.

Kodo Kodo

26 november 2009 15:28

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De logica hiervan ontgaat me. De dollar is helemaal ondermijnd en toch nog niet ingestort, dus blijkt hij sterk te staan? Je kunt evengoed zeggen: "dus hangt de totale catastrofe hem nog boven het hoofd".

Wat heb ik niet gesnapt?

Nr.10

27 november 2009 00:29

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Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Kodo Kodo (Bericht 4462267)

De auteur spreekt een beetje moeilijk begrijpbare taal omdat hij wel over bepaalde vermoedens maar deze vermoedens vermoedelijk niet kan hard maken. Er spelen veel factoren een rol, niet in het minst psychologische. En ja, die zijn ook voor een deel irrationeel. Paradox aan de logica achter de totale catastrofe die de dollar boven het hoofd zou hangen is echter de volgende constatering: einde 2008 in volle financiële crisis (toen het systeem op instorten stond) was er een gigantische kapitaalvlucht juist in de richting van de dollarzone. Omdat die zone beschouwd werd als laatste reddingsboei in geval van, en hier zit de paradox, de totale apocalyps. Welke apocalyps is nu de meest waarschijnlijke? De totale ineenstorting van de dollar of de totale ineenstorting van alle andere munten, behalve de dollar?

Nr.10

27 november 2009 00:59

Een Tobin-taks tegen dit soort transacties (flitskapitaal), een goed voorstel, zal het vermoedelijk niet halen. Dergelijke taks zou de acceleratie afremmen. Kapitaal, al dan niet gecreëerd uit ijlende lucht, volgt de weg van de minste weerstand, en tegenwoordig gebeurt dat aan de snelheid van het licht. Dit impliceert acceleratie.

Indien er niemand wil bewegen wordt het wachten op zware ongelukken.
Vraag is: hoe zwaar moeten die ongelukken zijn om tot inzicht te komen?
De geschiedenis van de menselijke soort is op dat vlak weinig opbeurend.

Conscience

3 december 2009 22:31

De taktiek van de carry trades is niets anders dan een toepssing van het economische principe dat daar waar er gesubsidieerd wordt er mogelijkheid is de discrepantie met de marktwaarde/prijzen te exploiteren. De globalisering brengt die exploitatie direkt aan je voordeur.

Nr.10

4 december 2009 05:07

Citaat:

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Conscience (Bericht 4475625)

Wat je genereert met dergelijke stellingen is fundamentalisme.

Nr.10

4 december 2009 05:10

Wat zijn "economische principes" binnen het piramidespel van het laat-kapitalistische systeem?

Nr.10

31 oktober 2010 19:44

Bron

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The global financial system already has seen one long and unsuccessful experiment in quantitative easing in Japan’s carry trade that sprouted in the wake of Japan’s financial bubble bursting after 1990. Bank of Japan liquidity enabled the banks to lend yen credit to arbitrageurs at a low interest rate to buy higher-yielding securities. Iceland, for example, was paying 15 per cent. So Japanese yen were converted into foreign currencies, pushing down its exchange rate.

It was Japan that refined the “carry trade” in its present-day form. After its financial and property bubble burst in 1990, the Bank of Japan sought to enable its banks to “earn their way out of negative equity” by supplying them with low-interest credit for them to lend out. Japan’s recession left little demand at home, so its banks developed the carry trade: lending at a low interest rate to arbitrageurs at home and abroad, to lend to countries offering the highest returns. Yen were borrowed to convert into dollars, euros, Icelandic kroner and Chinese renminbi to buy government bonds, private-sector bonds, stocks, currency options and other financial intermediation. This “carry trade” was capped by foreign arbitrage in bonds of countries such as Iceland, paying 15 per cent. Not much of this funding was used to finance new capital formation. It was purely financial in character – extractive, not productive.

Puur financiëel, niet verbonden met de reële wereld.

Nr.10

1 november 2010 02:45

This emerging market carry trade is going to cause serious problems
13 okt 2010

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Capital flows to emerging markets have risen to $825 billion as a result of the ultra-low monetary policy in rich countries. They are running the risk of destabilising these markets.The global economy is like a balloon. If you push in one place, it will bulge out somewhere else. This is what is occurring from the flood of money coming from Japan and the United States. The quantitative easing and ultra-low interest rates in both of these countries might be good for the local economies, but they could have negative effects on other markets, specifically emerging markets.

Het verse geld vloeit bij beken naar de "emerging economies".
Dus niet naar de plaatsen waar het voor bedoeld is.

Nr.10

4 november 2010 05:15

wat is een carry trade?

Hoe hedgefondsen tewerk gaan om munt te slaan uit de verschillen in intrestvoeten tussen munteenheden, zoals bepaald door het beleid van de centrale banken van die respectievelijke munteenheden.

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If you buy a high yield currency and sell a low yield currency, all things being equal, you keep the difference.

For example, say you buy Australian Dollars yielding 3.0% and sell Japanese Yen yielding 0.10%. If the exchange rate stays stable, you’d make 2.9% (3.0% minus 0.1%).

Now it doesn’t sound like much, but realize some aggressive traders use leverage. And if the currencies move at all in your favor, you make even more money. In our example, if the Australian Dollar moves up or the Japanese Yen moves down… that’s a recipe for big money.

That, in essence, is the carry trade.

Now imagine doing it on a massive scale, with millions and millions of dollars. That’s how these hedge funds make money day in and day out.

Bron

Nr.10

4 november 2010 05:22

Dollar Carry Trade

Nr.10

4 november 2010 05:36

Peso Becoming Top Carry-Trade Currency as Exports Soar: Argentina Credit
4 nov 2010

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The peso also posted the biggest drop in volatility among emerging currencies this year, making it more appealing to carry-trade investors who buy higher-yielding currencies with funds borrowed in countries with lower-interest rates.

In casu:

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Buying the peso with dollar loans.

Nr.10

5 november 2010 20:36

‘QE is a dud, yet more could be on way’
4 nov 2010

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Some economists have long argued that the policy of swamping the markets with money may not get the banks start lending again or lead to stronger consumer prices. They cite the Japanese experiment with quantitative easing which resulted in a process called carry trade in which Japanese investors borrowed in yen and invested abroad. All the money funneled through the Bank of Japan's quantitative easing did not obviously result in boosting consumer price inflation and helped the economy back to health. The Fed is now in a sticky wicket and it will have two choices when it realizes that QE2 isn't working, Ashworth says: "Admit this is a lost cause and halt its purchases or increase the size of its purchases. We suspect the Fed would double-down rather than fold. Indeed, the accompanying statement left open the possibility that the size of the programme could be adjusted in time."

Het lekt gewoon door naar het buitenland (zoals eerder in Japan), het overspoelt de geglobaliseerde kusten. Bovenop de geldpersen (van de Centrale Bank) leent deze Centrale Bank ook uit aan de banken (aan quasi nul procent). De banken zijn dus in de gelegenheid om quasi tot in het oneindige cijfertjes te creëren in hun computers. Binnen de Aziatische wereld wekt dit enorme wrevel op. Men werkt aan vergeldingsmaatregelen, uit noodzaak (om hun landen stabiel te houden, om de zondvloed aan liquiditeiten in te dammen). Zie: http://forum.politics.be/showpost.ph...&postcount=328

Nr.10

5 november 2010 21:53

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QE2 to intensify emerging mkt inflows
4 nov 2010

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The second round of economic stimulus unleashed by the U.S. Federal Reserve will intensify capital flows into emerging markets by reducing the carry trade risk, the International Monetary Fund's chief economist said on Thursday.

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"The risk associated with sharp moves in interest rates is largely gone, which makes the carry trade more attractive, and this implies more capital flows outside the United States"

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Bernanke on QE2: The Goal Is to Create a Bubble
5 nov 2010

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The Fed is looking in the wrong place for inflation: It's in asset prices outside the US, to be followed by consumer prices outside the US, to be followed by higher inflation here.

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I predict that the unemployed in this country who will face the inevitable inflation of this money-printing will find little joy in watching Indonesian stocks rise further.

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The question of whose stock market returns you enhance with money-printing is a function of whether your currency is fuel for carry trades or not.

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The end result of this is going to be the continued inflation of a bubble outside of the US. When the Federal Reserve says there's no inflation, they're looking in the wrong place: It's in asset prices outside of the US, to be followed by consumer prices outside of the US, to be followed, finally and violently, by higher inflation here. This policy will work as well as Greenspan’s recommendations to take out an adjustable-rate mortgage did in 2004.

Aan de torenhoge werkloosheid in de VS wordt niet verholpen.
KMO's verzuipen. Grote multinationals floreren.

Nr.10

5 december 2010 04:59

Van een blogger
16 nov 2010

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We all know the Fed is mandated to stimulate economic growth and increase employment. All true, but it answers first to an even higher calling. The Fed is owned by the banks and is run first and foremost, in their interest. When the financial crisis left banks insolvent, the Treasury stepped in with the TARP program to take care of the immediate capital shortfall. It was the Fed, however, which provided the longer term solution, a rebuilding of the banks’ capital base through internal growth and to provide the earnings needed to offset additional unrecognized mortgage foreclosure losses.

The Fed’s solution was to drop its short term lending rate to near zero, thereby allowing banks to borrow at this rate and invest the proceeds in long term treasuries paying 3% to 4%. Leverage that 5 or 10 times and you get a 20% to 30% rate of return with zero credit risk (this is what is referred to as the carry trade.)

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The greatest risk in the carry trade, however, is a sudden increase in long term interest rates. It’s fine to collect 20% a year’s worth of carry trade interest, but not if long term rates suddenly move up. A 2% rise at 10 times leverage would result in a 33% capital loss, or more precisely, a wipeout. A year ago this carry trade looked to be about $500 billion and I suspect it has grown since then. What made this carry trade bet look risk-free was the Fed promise is wouldn’t change the short term borrowing rate for some time and then only with plenty of advanced warning. The more important signal, however, is the rise in long term rates; rates over which the Fed has only limited influence.

Those who play the carry trade game look for the first signs of a long term rate rise. When they see it, they will rapidly de-leverage their holdings to avoid the rate spike that can occur when everyone sees what’s coming and tries to bail out at the same time.

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The problem with the carry trade unraveling is that you suddenly have an unbalanced market where everyone wants to sell their long term treasuries and there is a dearth of buyers. The Fed will have to step up.

Is dat niet wat er gebeurt momenteel?
De LT-rente die stijgende is.

Nr.10

5 december 2010 05:24

1 Bijlage(n)

On Interest Rates, Asset Prices and Carry Trades
17 nov 2010

Trading on the rouble
22 nov 2010

Squeeze On Carry Trades
3 dec 2010
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kelt	5 december 2010 06:09

"extractive,not productive" zie ik in een van de bijdragen in deze thread staan.

Dat vat dit soort gelegaliseerde uitzuigerij goed samen.....:-(

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