The starting point was in 1995 when Putin set the strategy of Gazprom Co. to move within the area in which gas exists starting from Russia through Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran (for marketing), and the Middle East. Certainly, the projects of the “Nord Stream” and “South Stream” will be a historical order of merit given to Vladimir Putin for his efforts in bringing Russia back to the international arena and for tightening the influence on the European economy which will depend, for decades, on gas as an alternative for oil or gas as well as oil, yet with prioritizing the first; i.e., gas. At this point, it was a must for Washington to hasten to create its project, “Nabucco”, to compete against the Russian project as to gain an international apportionment on the basis of which a political and strategic dominance would be enabled for the next one hundred years.

Gas will be the main source of energy in the twenty-first century either as an alternative for diminishing oil reserves worldwide, or as a source of clean energy. Therefore, having control over the zones of gas reserves in the world is considered to be, for the old as well as modern powers, the basis of international conflict in its regional manifestation.

Obviously, Russia read the map well and learnt the lessons well, for the lack of world energy resources that are needed to inject industrial institutions with money and energy, and which were not under the control of the Soviet Union, was the reason behind its collapse. Therefore, Russia learnt that the source of energy of the 21st century was gas.


History of the great gas game

An initial reading of the gas map reveals that gas locates in the following areas, in terms of quantity and access to consumption areas: 1. Russia: beginning with Vyborg and Beregovaya. 2. Annexed to Russia: Turkmenistan. 3. The near and further roundabouts of Russia: Azerbaijan and Iran. 4. Captured from Russia: Georgia. 5. Eastern Mediterranean: Syria and Lebanon. 6. Qatar and Egypt.
Moscow hastened to work on two strategic lines; the first of which is setting up a long-term Russian-Chinese project based on the economic growth of the Shanghai Bloc; the second axis being the control of gas resources. Thus, Moscow set the grounds for two projects: the “South Stream” and the “Nord Stream” in an attempt to face the American “Nabucco” Project which was supported by the European Union and aimed at transporting the gas of the Black Sea and the gas of Azerbaijan. There was, then, a strategic race between two projects so as to have control over Europe and the gas resources.
For the Russian Federation:

The “Nord Stream” Project directly links Russia with Germany, across the Baltic Sea to Weinberg and Saßnitz without penetrating Belarus.

The “South Stream” Project starts in Russia and leads across the Black Sea to Bulgaria, then it splits up between Greece and Southern Italy on the one hand, and Hungary and Austria on the other.



For the United States:

The American “Nabucco” Project centres in Central Asia and the Black Sea and its surroundings. Its storage places are in Turkey where its path starts; it leads across Bulgaria, and moves through Romania, Hungary, arrives in Austria and from there continues to the Czech Republic, Croatia, Slovenia and Italy. It was due to pass through Greece, but this idea was dropped for the sake of Turkey.

The Nabucco Project was supposed to compete with the two Russian projects, but due to technical problems the project was delayed until 2017 though it was scheduled for 2014. This resolved the race in favour of Russia, but both parties are still in search of new areas enlarging either project:

On the one hand, this refers to the Iranian gas which the US insists on making supportive of the Nabucco gas pipeline and which they want to transport to the assembling point in Erzurum, Turkey; on the other hand it refers to gas of the Eastern Mediterranean: Syria, Lebanon, and Israel.

Iran took a strategic decision, the result of which was signing a number of agreements in July 2011, to transport gas through Iraq to Syria. These agreements make Syria the centre of assembly and production in conjunction with the reserves of Lebanon. This is a space of strategy and energy that geographically extends from Iran to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Though it was banned and was not allowed for many years, it now shows the degree of struggle over Syria and Lebanon at this phase, and shows the emerging role of France that considers the Eastern Mediterranean as a historical region of influence and everlasting interests. The French role now goes along with a long phase of strategic French absence ever since World War II. In other words, France wants to have a role in the world of (gas) from which it has gained a “health insurance” in Libya and now wants to gain a “life insurance” in both Syria and Lebanon.

Now, Turkey feels it is going to be lost amid the struggle for gas as long as the Nabucco project is late. Since the “Nord” and “South Streams” exclude Turkey, Turkey knows quite well that the gas of the Eastern Mediterranean has become distant from Nabucco, and thus beyond Turkey’s influence.

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The gas of Syria

When Israel started oil and gas extraction in 2009, it was clear that the basin of the Mediterranean had entered the game and that Syria was either to be attacked or that the whole region was going to enjoy peace since the twenty-first century was said to be the century of clean energy.

What we know about this issue is that the Mediterranean basin is the wealthiest in gas and that Syria would be the wealthiest state, according to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP, the think tank of AIPAC) which also speculates that struggle between Turkey and Cyprus would heat due to Ankara’s inability to bear its losses of the “Nabucco” gas (despite the contract Moscow signed with Ankara on December 2011 to transport part of the “South Stream” gas via Turkey).

Embracing the secret of the Syrian gas will let all know how big the “game over gas” is. According to China, who controls Syria could control the Middle East, grip on the gateway to Asia, possess the key to Russia’ house (as Catherine II put it), and could set foot on the Silk Road. Most importantly, they who could penetrate Syria for gas have the ability to dominate the world, especially since the coming century will be the Century of Gas.

With the contract Damascus signed to transport Iranian gas to the Mediterranean through Iraq, the geopolitical space would open and the gas space would close on the scene of “Nabucco” that used to be Europe’s and Turkey’s lifeline. Syria, undoubtedly, would be the key to the coming epoch.

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