BEIRUT: A series of terror explosions that have struck Lebanon recently is a clear sign that the country has stepped into the dark tunnel of tit-for-tat large-scale violence, analysts said hours after a twin bombing rocked the northern city of Tripoli, killing at least 45 and wounding hundreds.
“Last week’s bombing in Ruwaiss stood out as a potential turning point in Lebanon’s struggle with escalating sectarian hostilities, but [Friday’s] attacks in Tripoli concretely underline that a two-way conflict has well and truly emerged in Lebanon,” Charles Lister, analyst at IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre told The Daily Star.
The explosions, one outside the Al-Taqwa Mosque that was soon followed by another outside the Al-Salam Mosque, happened at a busy hour of the day as hundreds of worshipers wrapped up Friday prayers, highlighted the deteriorating security situation in Tripoli, considered a safe haven and transit point for Syrian opposition groups in Lebanon.
Lister argued that the conflict in Syria has been hugely damaging to Lebanon’s delicate political balance.
“Lebanon is on an unstable path fraught with rising tensions and sectarian sentiment,” he said.
The blast came almost one week after a car bomb attack killed 30 people and wounded at least 300 in the Beirut southern suburb of Ruwaiss, a stronghold of Hezbollah – the party that has vowed unequivocal support for embattled Syrian President Bashar Assad.
“We have certainly entered a dark tunnel and there is now a cycle of violence that, if not nipped in the bud, can get out of control,” said Randa Slim, a scholar at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. She added that if the dynamic of violence settles into a pattern, it will be hard to reverse.
Following the explosion in Ruwaiss security bodies carried out arrests linked to an alleged car-bombing ring. Earlier this week, Army commander Gen. Jean Kahwagi revealed that the military was pursuing terrorists involved in creating and detonating car bombs with the intention of igniting sectarian strife in the country. Kahwagi highlighted that the car bombs were not intended to target a specific area or a specific sect.
According to Lister, the targeting of the two mosques in Tripoli was “hugely symbolic” as both mosques have been clearly involved in the heightened sectarian tensions within the Tripoli theater that witnessed intermittent clashes between Sunnis and Alawites related to the more than 2-year-old war in Syria.
Sheikh Salem Rafei, the Imam of Al-Taqwa Mosque, is a prominent Salafist figure in Tripoli and has played the role of mediator between Islamist groups and the Lebanese government on several occasions.
Rafei started his political activism in the 1980s as a combatant alongside Palestinian factions against the forces of late President Hafez Assad during fierce battles in Tripoli.
In Germany, where he preached for several years, he is labeled as a radical imam and since 2005 he is considered persona non grata on German territories, security sources said.
The plump sheikh mediated between Lebanese security forces and Islamists during the battles that pitted the Army against the Al-Qaeda-inspired group Fatah al-Islam in the north Lebanon Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr al-Bared in 2007.
A staunch critic of Hezbollah, Rafei has long championed the causes of controversial Islamist figures, including firebrand Salafist Sheikh Ahmad Assir, and pleaded for the release of Shadi Mawlawi, a young Islamist from Tripoli accused by security authorities of channeling funds to Syrian rebels.
The sheer scale of the Tripoli attacks and the fact that they took place during Friday prayers will undoubtedly have a national impact, Lister said.
“Tit-for-tat large-scale bombings in Lebanon are now an almost inevitable reality,” he pointed out.
Slim maintained that politicians must “engage in some kind of dramatic action” in a bid to curb the cycle of violence.
“There are political decisions that need to be made,” Slim said. “Let’s start with forming a new Cabinet and reviving National Dialogue sessions.”
But what is more important, according to Slim, is to “free the hands” of security agencies to go after all the suspects, including those inside Palestinian camps, where many are believed to have taken refuge.
Recently, security organizations have taken on specific political labels, significantly limiting their efficiency in combating crime and making arrests.
For instance, the Information Branch – the intelligence arm of the Internal Security Forces – is seen as being affiliated with the Future Movement and the March 14 alliance. Conversely, Lebanon’s Army Intelligence is identified as being backed by Hezbollah and the Amal Movement.
Analysts also agree that it was still early to identify the masterminds behind the string of blasts but tend to rule out that the perpetrators are the same.
Shortly after the Ruwaiss explosion, a previously unheard of group calling itself the “Brigade of Aisha, the Mother of the Faithful” claimed responsibility for the attack. In a speech after the attack, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah accused jihadists of carrying out the blasts.
As The Daily Star went to press, no group had claimed responsibility for the double bombing in Tripoli.
According to Lister, while it is impossible to completely discount the theory that the same actor may be responsible for attacks in the Beirut southern suburbs and Tripoli, it’s very unlikely they are the same. Slim argued that there were several parties that would benefit from mayhem in Lebanon.
“It’s too early to tell who stands behind the attacks and I think the rush now by some Lebanese politicians to blame everybody left and right, including Israel, is unwarranted,” Slim said.
|
