This crisis will produce a window for a skilled politician to unite the entire country against its debt obligations, against international finance, just as the Fascist parties did in the 1930s. No matter which path the EU chooses, the loss of either national sovereignty or proper enforcement mechanisms through the EU gives rise to an opportunity for a nationalist politician willing to repudiate his nation’s debts and start again.

Ending reparations in 1933 did not cause a crisis in global finance. Germany defaulted on its payments to Britain, which in turn ceased to honour its debts to the United States. Each creditor was large enough to take the hit. Government debt in the modern era is different. The leverage used by banks trading secondary and derivative products means that for every €1 which, say, Greece owes, €100 is set to be lost if she were to default completely.

With leverage on such an irresponsible scale, all nations would be forced to re-examine the relationship between capital and individuals in the event of default, with all of the conflict and strife that would entail.

Europe is one demagogue away from causing an earthquake in global finance such that the current problems seem a tremor in comparison. If Silvio Berlusconi – the only truly populist politician the continent has produced in the last half a century – were 20 years younger, I fancy it would have been him. As it is, a great deal now depends on whether a man will emerge somewhere in Europe capable of pushing nervous and resentful electorates over the precipice to outright default.

I would not bet against it.