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Studies aandeel E-wagens al aangepast na 1 jaar...

Door de vele aankondigingen van verscheidene constructeurs veel meer electrische wagens te produceren.

De eerdere voorspelling/schatting 2040 van het aandeel nieuw ingeschreven E-wagens wordt van 35% naar 54% gezet...

Citaat:

We estimate that EVs will account for 54% of new car sales by 2040, not 35% as previously forecast.

Citaat:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-accelerating

The Electric Car Revolution Is Accelerating
By Jess Shankleman 7 juli 2017 15:45 CEST From

- Electric cars will be as cheap as gasoline models by 2025
- Battery manufacturing capacity will triple in the next four years

The forecast is BNEF’s most bullish to date and is more aggressive than projections made by the International Energy Agency. Surging investment in lithium-ion batteries, higher manufacturing capacity at companies including Tesla Inc. and Nissan Motor Co., as well as emerging consumer demand from China to Europe support BNEF’s projections, which also include:

In just eight years, electric cars will be as cheap as gasoline vehicles, pushing the global fleet to 530 million vehicles by 2040

Electricity consumption from EVs will grow to 1,800 terawatt-hours in 2040, or 5 percent of global power demand, from 6 terawatt-hours in 2016

There's around 90 gigawatt hours of EV lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity online now, and this is set to rise to 270 gigawatt hours by 2021.

Charging infrastructure will continue to be an issue with bottlenecks capping growth in key Chinese, U.S. and European markets emerging in the mid-2030s

Lithium-ion cell costs have already fallen by 73 percent since 2010 and BNEF predicts innovation of battery manufacturers will accelerate and lead to further steep declines in average prices over the next two decades. While they won’t fall as fast as solar panels, it could still lead to suppliers getting squeezed as they compete for contracts, McKerracher said.

“There’s an element of competitive dynamics and a real possibility of oversupply in the lithium ion battery market that will serve to hammer down prices,” he said.

The world may need the equivalent of 35 of the so-called Gigafactories like the one built by Tesla founder Elon Musk in Nevada over the next 13 years to meet the power demands of electric cars, according to BNEF.
....]

Studie kan men downloaden:

Citaat:

https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

BNEF’s annual long-term forecast of global electric vehicle (EV) adoption to 2040.

“The EV revolution is going to hit the car market even harder and faster than BNEF predicted a year ago. EVs are on track to accelerate to 54% of new car sales by 2040. Tumbling battery prices mean that EVs will have lower lifetime costs, and will be cheaper to buy, than internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in most countries by 2025-29.”

Highlights

1 Electric vehicles take majority share of new car sales

We estimate that EVs will account for 54% of new car sales by 2040, not 35% as previously forecast.

2 Tumbling battery prices to drive EV growth

The real take-off for EVs will happen in the second half of the 2020s due to plunging lithium-ion battery prices, which are set to fall by more than 70% by 2030.

3 Oil displacement ramps up

By 2040, EVs will displace 8 million barrels of transport fuel per day, and add 5% to global electricity consumption.

Download

Het zal sneller gaan.

Men heeft de uptake van zonne- en windenergie ook fors onderschat. De prijzen dalen sneller dan gedacht door enkele technologische doorbraken.

Die curve zal nog snel bijgesteld worden komende jaren.

Vergeet niet dat tegen 2035-2040 in enkele grote EU landen benzine en dieselwagens verboden worden om nog verkocht te worden.

Er is geen fabrikant meer die nog volop gaat inzetten op ICE technologie.

Citaat:

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Tavek (Bericht 8486363)

Vergeet niet dat tegen 2035-2040 in enkele grote EU landen benzine en dieselwagens verboden worden om nog verkocht te worden.

.

Ik zie het nog niet gebeuren dat vrachtwagens en reisbussen op elektriciteit gaan rijden.

En wat dan met zeeschepen, de grootste vervuilers in het verkeer?

Mice,
ge zijt aan het overdrijven met al uw draden over die e-mobiliteit.

Allez, tien draden komt nog overeen met de gunstige prognoses zoals die de laatste tijd opduiken.
Maar twintig ... dat begint op stalking te lijken.

Citaat:

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Tavek (Bericht 8486363)

Idd, #Frankrijk verkondigde dat onlangs voor 2040, andere landen spreken zelfs van 2030.

# https://www.rtbf.be/info/monde/detai...040?id=9653319

Citaat:

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door De schoofzak (Bericht 8486400)

Jij postte er onlangs ook een paar, over iets dat al achterhaald was.

Aja, daarvoor post ik ergens anders bijna niets.

Citaat:

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door daiwa (Bericht 8486374)

Ik zie het nog niet gebeuren dat vrachtwagens en reisbussen op elektriciteit gaan rijden.

En wat dan met zeeschepen, de grootste vervuilers in het verkeer?

Zeeschepen nog niet (alhoewel dieselhybride zou een heel goed idee zijn- > electrisch in de havengebieden).

Citaat:

Diesel-electric hybrid.

There is a third potential use for a diesel auxiliary and that is to charge the batteries, when they suddenly start to wane far from shore in the middle of the night, or at anchor after some days of living aboard. In this case, where this kind of use is to be expected, perhaps on a larger cruising yacht, then a combined diesel-electric solution may be designed from the start. The diesel engine is installed with the prime purpose of charging the battery banks, and the electric motor with that of propulsion. There is some reduction in efficiency if motoring for long distances as the diesel's power is converted first to electricity and then to motion, but there is a balancing saving every time the wind-, sail- and solar-charged batteries are used for manoeuvring and for short journeys without starting the diesel. There is the flexibility of being able to start the diesel as a pure generator whenever required. The main losses are in weight and installation cost, but on the bigger cruising boats that may sit at anchor running large diesels for hours every day, these are not too big an issue, compared to the savings that can be made at other times. An example is the fishing boat Selfa El-Max 1099,[26] with 135 kWh battery and 80kW diesel generator.[27] An LNG-powered supply vessel started operation in 2016 with a 653 kWh/1600 kW battery acting as spinning reserve during dynamic positioning, saving 15-30% fuel.[28]

Schepen op kortere afstanden varen ook electrisch. De Ampere in Noorwegen zal wel voorlopig de grootste E-ferry zijn.
In elk geval heeft Siemens het uitgerekend dat veel E-ferrys best rendabel kunnen zijn, payback-time minder dan 5 naar.

Citaat:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_boat#Types

Commercial ferries. Norway's first battery-electric ferry is the Ampere,[14][15][16] with capacity for 120 cars and 12 trucks. As of November 2016, it has operated for 106,000 km. Its battery holds 1 MWh of energy, but the 9 minute charge time is sometimes not enough, and more battery capacity is to be installed. Norway has scheduled several other electric and hybrid ferry projects.[17]

Based on operational data, Siemens concludes in a life cycle analysis that 61 of Norway's 112 diesel ferry routes could be replaced by electric ferries with a payback time of 5 years. The analysis includes auxiliary costs such as chargers, grid, and so on.[18]

In Finland Föri, the historic Turku city ferry across the Aura River to Abo, was converted to all-electric propulsion in April 2017. The vessel was introduced as a wood-burning steam ferry in 1904, converted to diesel operation in 1955 and now provides a continuous daily service from 0615 to late evening for foot and cycle passengers on battery power. Charging takes place at night.[19]
Other projects are considered in Canada, Sweden and Denmark.[20][21][22] India's First Solar Ferry, a 75-passenger boat, that is powered by sun and grid charging with lithium batteries, is under construction and expected to be in operation by July, 2016. Based on the predictions of consumption the payback time is 3 years.[23][24][25]

143 E-modellen tegen 2022.

Met lijst welke merken:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/408...ls-market-2022

Straf dat die gasten kunnen vertellen wat er in 2038 gaat gebeuren. In 2040 gaan we ook een betonstop hebben dacht ik. En Macron die heeft iets voorzien voor 2050.

Spijtig genoeg zijn er geen politici die zich met volgend jaar bezighouden.

Gigafactory I lijkt wel voor de helft afgewerkt aan de buitenkant

https://electrek.co/2017/07/12/tesla-gigafactory-tour/

https://www.tesla.com/nl_BE/gigafactory?redirect=no

Met elke afgewerkte module kan de productie opgedreven worden.

De bedrijfsoppervlakte over 3-4 verdiepingen gaat +1.260.000 m² bedragen, en er zouden tegen 2020 ca. 6500 werknemers zijn:

Citaat:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/facts-...r-ti&r=US&IR=T

While the footprint of the building is 5.8 million square feet, the total planned floor space will be 13.6 million square feet, according to a report from Bloomberg. This is because some parts of the building will be broken down into four stories.

Once the factory is finished in 2020, it will house some 6,500 employees.

Tesla aims to only use renewable energy to power the factory.
The factory will create all of the energy it needs.
Solar panels will line the roof of the factory and additional panels will be placed on surrounding hilltops to capture more energy.
The company will also utilize geothermal and wind power to meet energy demands.

Rail cars full of raw material will come into the factory from the mines and come out as batteries.