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Polls predict slim victory for Fatah

Exit polls released late Wednesday indicated that Fatah had won a slim victory in the Palestinian parliamentary elections, and that the ruling party could form the next government with the help of small leftist factions.

A leading Palestinian pollster said Wednesday that no party is likely to win a majority of seats in the new Palestinian parliament, making it theoretically possible that Hamas could form the next government.

But it was viewed as unlikely that Hamas could summon enough support from smaller parties and independents to be able to forge a majority in parliament or form the cabinet.

Khalil Shikaki of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research said on the basis of exit polls that Hamas looked set to get 53 seats and Fatah 58 seats in the 132-member Palestinian parliament.

A Bir Zeit University exit poll released earlier on Wednesday also showed Fatah holding a slim lead over Hamas, with Fatah projected to win 63 seats, and Hamas taking 58.

According to the same poll, a total of seven seats are to go leftist parties, which are expected to join an Abbas-led coalition, thereby keeping Hamas out of the government and in the coalition.

Three of these seats are expected to go to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine; two to Mustafa Barghouti's Independent Palestine; and two to Badil, which is made up of the former Communist Party, Fidah and the Democratic Front.

The Third Way party, under the leadership of former PA finance minister Salem Fiad, is expected to take an additional two seats. The final two seats are expected to go to two independent candidates.

The actual results of the elections were not expected to be released before Thursday, and official results could come only on Friday.

Hundreds of Fatah supporters took to the streets in celebration Wednesday night after one exit poll showed their party ahead in the first Palestinian elections in a decade.

Fatah loyalists fired rifles out of car windows, sounded their horns and waved the yellow flag of their movement as they drove around Gaza City streets, in the wake of a survey showing the party with 46.4 percent of the vote, with the rival Hamas trailing with 39.5 percent.

"Even though this is not the official result we have to celebrate," said 22-year-old Omar Abdel Al Raouf, waving an assault rifle from his car window. "The winner is the Palestinian people."

Pollsters had cautioned that there would be a large margin of error in their projections, particularly because of the complicated Palestinian election system, under which some seats are chosen from party lists and some on a district basis.

Voter turnout in election was 77.7 percent, the Central Election Commission said. In the West Bank, 74 percent of 1.3 million eligible voters cast ballots, and in the Gaza Strip, 82 percent participated in the vote.

The turnout figure could climb, however, since the vote was extended by two hours in East Jerusalem. Voting in the city, permissible in post office branches only, will end at 9 P.M., but analysts do not expect official results before Friday.

The high turnout in Gaza, which tends to support Hamas, was apparently balanced by a substantial turnout in the West Bank, which has a much higher total vote and stronger backing for Fatah.

Polling stations in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank closed their doors at 7 P.M., but voters who were inside continued to cast ballots.

Voting in Ramallah, Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas said he is ready to resume peace talks with Israel, even if Hamas joins his government after the legislative vote.

"We are ready to negotiate," Abbas told Israeli reporters who were in the West Bank city to cover the election.

"We are partners with the Israelis. They don't have the right to choose their partner. But if they are seeking a Palestinian partner, this partner exists," he said.

Hamas was expected to make a strong showing Wednesday, raising the possibility of it joining Abbas' Cabinet. Israel refuses to deal with the group until it disarms, something it rules out.

Earlier, Abbas praised his people for overcoming great obstacles to carry out the vote. "We are so happy with this election festival," Abbas said after voting Ramallah. "So far, it's going very well and we hope it will keep going well until the end without any troubles."

Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia said Wednesday that the ruling Fatah party is ready to "stand behind" Hamas if the militant organization wins the parliamentary vote.

"I hope that the minority will accept the decisions of the majority," Qureia said after voting in the Jerusalem suburb of Abu Dis. "If Hamas wins, they will win and we will stand behind them. This is democracy and we accept the results of the elections."

Thousands of PA police keep order
Polls opened at 7 A.M. Wednesday in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem, with 1.3 million Palestinians eligible to vote in the first parliamentary elections in a decade.

Some 13,000 police officers deployed at 1,008 polling stations, taking up positions on rooftops and at entrances to enforce a weapons ban.

"We do not expect violence but we have been instructed to use force against anyone who tries to disrupt the election process," Palestinian policeman Ibrahim Mahmoud said in the West Bank city of Ramallah.

Pollsters had predicted a turnout of at least 75 percent, with the mild weather boding well for Fatah. Rain had been forecast for Wednesday, but it failed to materialize. Poor weather could have given Hamas, with its ideologically more committed electorate, an edge.

Shortly after polls opened, Palestinian security forces confiscated candidate lists given to voters outside polling stations in a Gaza Strip refugee camp.

The lists were distributed by both Fatah and Hamas to tell voters which candidates to choose. Authorities confiscated the lists as people entered the voting stations, and gave them back after people cast ballots.

The lists were considered a violation of a ban on campaigning that went into effect Tuesday.

Eleven party lists, representing all Palestinian factions except the Islamic Jihad, appeared on local ballots in the first parliamentary elections since 1996. About 900 foreign observers, led by former U.S. president Jimmy Carter, were deployed to monitor the process.

Bron

(ik wil me nu al verontschuldigen, heb joodse Haaretz als informatiebron gebruikt en geen Arabische. Ik ben een vaste lezer van Haaretz , de reacties op nieuwsberichten vind ik toch altijd interessant om te lezen)

on-topic blijven:

Hamas is nort schent tweede grootste partij geworden