Citaat:
Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Adam Smith
Bio energie is alleen geen oplossing, omdat we met de huidige bevolkingsgroei daar géén landbouwgrond voor hebben. Voor de rest ben ik het met je eens dat alternatieven onderzocht moeten worden (ook kernfusie.  ...). |
Och er is land genoeg, maak u daar geen zorgen om.
Het potentieel (1400Exajoules) brengt de voedsel-, vezel, voedervraag uiteraard expliciet mee in de scenarios.
Dus wanneer we de sterk aangegroeide bevolking volledig van voedsel hebben voorzien in 2050 (vanaf 2075 neemt de wereldbevolking af), dan hebben we potentieel voor 1400 Exajoules.
Allemaal studies van het Internationaal Energie Agentschap, Cel Bioenergie:
IEA Bioenergy:
http://www.ieabioenergy.com/
Meer dan 42 denktanks (taskforces) van het IEA analyseren bioenergie.
Task 40 : Sustainable International Bioenergy Trade - Securing Supply and Demand
Heeft het duurzame potentieel zeer diepgaand onderzocht.
http://bioenergytrade.org/t40reports...ae0d94705.html
A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050.
This work of the FairBioTrade project covers three parts. I has been bundled in a
research report [3.531 KB] in 2004. The work has further been developed and submitted separately as two scientific papers, see below.
1. A bottom-up assessment and review of global bio-energy potentials to 2050
Published in Progress in Energy and Combustion Science (2006, in press)
Edward M.W. Smeets, André P.C. Faaij, Iris M. Lewandowski and Wim C. Turkenburg (2006) A bottom-up assessment and review of global bio-energy potentials to 2050.
Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, Volume 33, Issue 1, February 2007, Pages 56-106
Abstract
In this article a model for estimating bioenergy production potentials in 2050 is presented that is called the Quickscan model. In addition, a review of existing studies is carried out, using results from the Quickscan model as a starting point. The Quickscan model uses a bottom-up approach and its development is based on an evaluation of data and studies on relevant factors such as population growth, per capita food consumption and the efficiency of food production. Three types of biomass energy sources are included: dedicated bioenergy crops, agricultural and forestry residues and waste, and forest growth. The bioenergy potential in a region is limited by various factors, such as the demand for food, industrial roundwood, traditional woodfuel, and the need to maintain existing forests for the protection of biodiversity. Special attention is given to the technical potential to reduce the area of land needed for food production by increasing the efficiency of food production. Thus, only the surplus area of agricultural land is included as a source for bioenergy crop production. A reference scenario was composed to analyze the demand for food. Four levels of advancement of agricultural technology in the year 2050 were assumed that vary with respect to the efficiency of food production. Results indicated that the application of very efficient agricultural systems combined with the geographic optimization of land use patterns could reduce the area of land needed to cover the global food demand in 2050 by as much as 72 % of the present area. A key factor was the area of land suitable for crop production, but that is presently used for permanent grazing. Another key factor is the efficiency of the production of animal products. The bioenergy potential on surplus agricultural land (i.e. land not needed for the production of food and feed) equaled 215 EJ y-1 to 1272 EJ y-1, depending on the level of advancement of agricultural technology. The bulk of this potential is found in South America & Caribbean (47-221 EJ y-1), sub-Saharan Africa (31-317 EJ y-1) and the C.I.S. & Baltic States (45-199 EJ y-1). Also Oceania and North America had considerable potentials: 20-174 EJ y-1 and 38-102 EJ y-1, respectively. However, realization of these (technical) potentials requires significant increases in the efficiency of food production, whereby the most robust potential is found in the C.I.S. & Baltic States and East Europe. Existing scenario studies indicated that such increases in productivity may be unrealistically high, although these studies generally excluded the impact of large scale bioenergy crop production. The global potential of bioenergy production from agricultural and forestry residues and wastes was calculated to be 76-96 EJ y-1 in the year 2050. The potential of bioenergy production from surplus forest growth (forest growth not required for the production of industrial roundwood and traditional woodfuel) was calculated to be 74 EJ y-1 in the year 2050.
Key words: bioenergy, potential, global, agriculture, land use, agricultural production efficiency.
2. Bioenergy potentials from forestry in 2050. An assessment of the drivers that determine the potentials.
This
paper [900 KB] is published in the journal Climatic Change. Please refer to as: Edward M.W. Smeets and André P.C. Faaij (2006) Bioenergy Potentials from Forestry in 2050. An assessment of the drivers that determine the potentials. Climatic Change (in press at the time of writing)
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to evaluate the global energy production potential of woody biomass from forestry for the year 2050 using a bottom-up analysis of key factors. Woody biomass from forestry was defined as all of the aboveground woody biomass of trees, including all products made from woody biomass. This includes the harvesting, processing and use of woody biomass. The projection was performed by comparing the future demand with the future supply of wood, based on existing databases, scenarios, and outlook studies. Specific attention was paid to the impact of the underlying factors that determine this potential and to the gaps and uncertainties in our current knowledge. Key variables included the demand for industrial roundwood and woodfuel, the plantation establishment rates, and the various theoretical, technical, economical, and ecological limitations related to the supply of wood from forests. Forests, as defined in this study, exclude forest plantations. Key uncertainties were the supply of wood from trees outside forests, the future rates of deforestation, the consumption of woodfuel, and the theoretical, technical, economical, or ecological wood production potentials of the forests.
Based on a medium demand and medium plantation scenario, the global theoretical potential of the surplus wood supply (i.e., after the demand for woodfuel and industrial roundwood is met) in 2050 was calculated to be 6.1 Gm3 (71 EJ) and the technical potential to be 5.5 Gm3 (64 EJ). In practice, economical considerations further reduced the surplus wood supply from forests to 1.3 Gm3y-1 (15 EJy-1). When ecological criteria were also included, the demand for woodfuel and industrial roundwood exceeded the supply by 0.7 Gm3y-1 (8 EJy-1). The bioenergy potential from logging and processing residues and waste was estimated to be equivalent to 2.4 Gm3y-1 (28 EJy-1) wood, based on a medium demand scenario. These results indicate that forests can, in theory, become a major source of bioenergy, and that the use of this bioenergy can, in theory, be realized without endangering the supply of industrial roundwood and woodfuel and without further deforestation. Regional shortages in the supply of industrial roundwood and woodfuel can, however, occur in some regions, e.g., South Asia and the Middle East & North Africa.
Keywords: bioenergy, forestry, forest residues.
Smeets, E., Faaij, A., Lewandowski, I. and Turkenburg, W. 2007. A quickscan of global bioenergy potentials to 2050. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, Volume 33, Issue 1, February, Pp 56-106.
Hoogwijk, M., Faaij, A., Eickhout, B., de Vries, B. and Turkenburg, W. 2005a. Potential of biomass energy out to 2100, for four IPCC SRES land-use scenarios, Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 4, October, Pp. 225-257.
Berndes, G., Hoogwijk, M. and van den Broek, R. 2003. The contribution of biomass in the future global energy supply: a review of 17 studies, Biomass and Bioenergy, Volume 25, Issue 1, July, Pp 1-28.
Dus: 1300 �* 1400 Exajoules. Nadat we de snel groeiende bevolking gevoed, gevezeld en gevoederd hebben.
Mensen zijn over 't algemeen
zéér maar dan ook zéér slecht ingelicht over het bioenergie-potentieel.
Citaat:
Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Adam Smith
En ja ik ken Friedman. Geo-politiek is het inderdaad beter niet meer afhankelijk te zijn voor olie van het Midden Oosten en Chavez.
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Inderdaad. En we kunnen er toch aan toevoegen dat we ook liever niet nog eens één miljoen mensen moeten doodmaken om olie, zoals de Amerikanen in Irak hebben gedaan.
Ik ben tégen Chavez en de Arabische tirannen. Maar ook tegen de Angelsaksische neoliberale petro-tirannen.