Dat de modellen teveel gefocusd zijn op CO2 (en de feedbacks daarop) was door mij al een paar keer gezegd, hier anderen die wijzen op het belang van de natuurlijke variabiliteit inzake de toename van de temperatuur in de laatste decennia van de vorige eeuw:
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.co...hi-and-tanaka/
Belangrijkste conclusie:
Citaat:
According to our result, the rapid warming during 1970-1990 contains a large fraction of unpredictable natural variability due to the AO. The subsequent period of 1990-2010 indicates a clear trend of the AO to be negative. The global warming has been stopped by natural variability superimposed on the gentle anthropogenic global warming. The important point is that the IPCC models have been tuned perfectly to fit the rapid warming during 1970-1990 by means of the ice-albedo feedback (anthropogenic forcing) which is not actually observed. IPCC models are justified with this wrong scientific basis and are applied to project the future global warming for 100 years in the future. Hence, we warn that the IPCC models overestimate the warming trend due to the mislead Arctic Oscillation.
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