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Many brotherhood leaders, Habib adds, would likely find themselves arrested or strong-armed into submission by police—in particular, midlevel officials who provide the link between the group’s leaders and lower ranks. Egypt’s Army chief, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Habib says, “will not do it unless he secures the land”—meaning that military action against Morsi would entail a crackdown on the brotherhood, too.

It’s hard to say what will become of the brotherhood once the clock expires on the 48-hour window al-Sisi gave Morsi to stem a crisis that has brought deadly clashes around the country and millions to the streets. But Habib, who left the group after 42 years in December 2009, says that the popularity that protected it through decades of repression had eroded drastically during Morsi’s year in office. “The Muslim Brotherhood was strong because it was popular among the people,” he says. “And in the last year it has lost its popularity.”

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