[Tavek]

The world is facing a long-term oil glut as producers scramble to exploit reserves before fossil fuel demand goes into decline, according to a BP assessment that suggests that oil companies should brace for prolonged pressure from low prices.

The UK oil and gas group said there was twice as much technically recoverable oil available as the world is expected to need between now and 2050, making it likely that some oil reserves will never be extracted.

The surplus should spur increasing competition between companies and producer nations to ensure their assets were not left “stranded” as demand gradually shifts from oil to cleaner forms of energy.

The result is likely to be “quite significant pressures to dampen long-run prices”, according to Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist.

His comments, in a presentation of BP’s annual energy outlook, provide a counter point to the optimism that has returned to the oil market since the Opec production cartel struck a deal last month with some non-Opec nations to curb output.

The supply cut, the first by Opec and non-Opec nations for 16 years, has helped stabilise crude prices above $50 per barrel after a two-year downturn. Mr Dale declined to provide detailed predictions on pricing.

But his forecast raised doubts about the ability of producer nations to maintain market discipline in the long term and suggested that the $100-per-barrel prices reached before the 2014 crash are unlikely to return.

“Many low-cost producers have rationed supply with a view that if they do not produce a barrel today they can produce a barrel tomorrow,” Mr Dale said.


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“I think it is increasingly likely that there will be technically recoverable oil reserves which will never be extracted and if I was the owner of one of those companies which owned that oil I would have every incentive to make sure it wasn’t mine [left in the ground].”

Pricing pressure is likely to come from the supply side, because of strong growth in US shale oil, and the demand side as the rise of renewable energy, including electric vehicles, gradually slows growth in oil consumption.

Mr Dale said that higher-cost producer nations would face a battle to remain competitive against low-cost regions such as the US, Russia and the Middle East. International groups such as BP have the ability to shift capital in pursuit of the most attractive resources, but producer countries and their national oil companies have less flexibility.

BP cited estimates that there are 2.6tn barrels of oil recoverable using current technology, more than twice cumulative global oil demand to 2050 under most scenarios.

BP said that plentiful supply would help keep fossil fuels the dominant source of energy powering the world economy for decades to come, with oil, gas and coal projected to account for three-quarters of energy supply in 2035.

However, that figure represents a decline from 86 per cent in 2015. Non-fossil fuels are expected to account for half the projected 30 per cent growth in energy demand over the next 20 years. “The global energy landscape is changing,” said Bob Dudley, BP chief executive. “Our industry needs to adapt.”

Renewable energy was forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 7.6 per cent to 2035, compared with 0.7 per cent for oil. This was 1 percentage point higher than BP projected in last year’s outlook — it has made a succession of upgrades to its renewables forecast, leading critics to argue that oil majors are failing to grasp the extent of change facing their industry.

Mr Dale said that a faster-than-expected shift from coal to wind and solar power in China had accounted for much of the increase.

BP also raised its projection for the number of electric vehicles on the road from 1m today to 100m in 2035, compared with a forecast of 70m in last year’s outlook. However, this would still amount to only about 5 per cent of the global car fleet. Mr Dale said that battery-powered cars were unlikely to be a “game changer” because they would be offset by continued expansion in petrol-fuelled vehicles in emerging markets.

“It is not Tesla drivers in the US, it is the 2bn people in Asia who are moving into middle income and buying their first car that is driving oil demand,” he said.

BP’s projections suggest that oil demand is likely to peak around the mid-2040s but Mr Dale admitted that decline could come sooner if alternative technology advanced more quickly than expected.

Kortom, de olieprijs blijft laag, stranded assets gaan een ding worden, waardoor investeringen in olie risicovol worden. BP heeft al regelmatig zijn projecties voor renewables moeten bijstellen, die veel sneller groeien dan ze ooit gedacht hadden.

Tegen 50 dollar per vat is produceren in veel delen van de wereld niet rendabel (waaronder Europa en alles wat off shore is).

Trump zal moeten subsidieren wilt hij boorplatformen in de artic willen gaan zetten hoor.