[Micele]

Realistisch artikel, de moeite om eens volledig te lezen:

Voorweg: geschreven door een ITS-ingenieur, maar ook een fan van ICE-voertuigen, en die aandelen bezit, of long gaat, in de olie-industrie...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/409...l-oil-industry

Automation, Not The Electric Vehicle, Will Kill The Oil Industry

Aug. 7, 2017

Summary

The Electric Vehicle will not kill Big Oil. The EV is a red herring.

If anything will kill the oil industry, it will be automated vehicle technology.

Fully autonomous vehicles may be closer to reality than we think.

Eerste stukje door de vertaler gehaald:

Ik ben een ITS Engineer. 'ITS' staat voor intelligente transportsystemen. ITS Engineers vinden manieren om het verkeer beter te beheren langs belangrijke snelwegen en interstate. Heb je ooit een Dynamic Message Sign-structuur gezien die aan de zijkant van de weg is geïnstalleerd, zegt u: "10 Miles - 10 Minutes - Exit 72 to Exit 82"? Een ITS Engineer heeft het systeem ontworpen dat het tekenwerk maakt. Onbekend voor jou, je bent een data mining operatie. Apparaten zijn strategisch geplaatst op alle wegen die u als bewegend doel gebruiken. Op kleinere wegen pingen kleine Bluetooth-detectors uw mobiele telefoon, Bluetooth-stereo, Apple (AAPL) iPad of ander aangesloten apparaat bij Point A en wijzen u een adres toe. Uiteindelijk, wanneer u uw weg naar Point B heeft bereikt, weet het systeem precies hoe lang het u heeft genomen om daar te komen. Aangezien de afstand van punt A naar punt B is vastgesteld, kan het systeem een ​​snel gemiddelde van de snelheid van iedereen bereiken om een ​​nauwkeurige "Time To _______" -melding te maken.

Op grotere tolwegen gebruiken systemen meestal overhead-gemonteerde taglezers om uw raamontvanger elektronische tol ontvanger te plukken. Ik ben een EZPass-gebruiker hier in het noordoosten, en ik word vaak gebruikt als datapunt om reistijden te beoordelen.

Deze begrippen zijn hoe Google reistijden berekent. Heb je vandaag niet in het verkeer gekomen omdat je Google Maps hebt gecontroleerd voordat je je huis vertrok, merkte dat je typische route in plaats van 'rood' werd aangeduid en naar een 'groene' route omgeleid? Google gebruikt uw Location Services als een tracking-baken om de reistijden te berekenen, en daardoor verkeersopstoppingen. ITS Engineers zoals mijzelf kunnen deze gegevens integreren in staats-, stads- en lokale netwerken. Bedankt, Google!

Het is duur om bestaande wegen te verbouwen en te verbreden, en veel kan mis gaan. Het vinden van plaatsen om al die nieuw opgegraven vuil te dumpen is een logistieke nachtmerrie. Bestaande wegen werken slimmer kosten pennies op de dollar. Mijn bedrijf is een niche markt binnen de algemene engineering markt, maar de groei is exploderend. De toekomst is het maken van wegen slimmer, niet groter, en het integreren van u als gegevenspunt in een aangesloten systeem is cruciaal voor functionaliteit.

Vanwege de aard van mijn werk is ons bedrijf intens geïnteresseerd in de toekomst van geautomatiseerd transport. Een gedachtengevoelend artikel werd door mijn kantoor doorgegeven, het kan 10 keer goedkoper zijn om
een elektriciteit-robot-taxi te nemen dan zelf auto-eigenaar te zijn tegen 2030.

ik pik er even een extra stukje uit onderaan:

It will take generations for red-blooded Americans to choose an EV over an ICEV if the have the choice. But if you separate Americans from vehicle ownership entirely...that changes the story entirely. It is going to be a tough sell to get a red-blooded American to choose efficiency over excitement, but if you tell that same person they can drop their automobile insurance policy, car payment and maintenance costs and have door-to-door chauffeur service from their doorstep to their office for a fraction of the cost, nap on their way into work and never sit in traffic again, now that is a game-changer. If there is one thing we love more than our muscle, it's not having to use our muscles at all, kick back and relax. I am living proof of this. I recently had a major career change, and now I commute every day into Center City Philadelphia instead of out into a suburban office. The problem is I still live in the suburbs. The commute into the city every day is nightmarish and parking costs are astronomical, but I live 6 blocks from a train that drops me off within 2 blocks of my office for a $174 monthly pass with unlimited rides. I despise the dirty, crammed public train and love my car, but the convenience is so overwhelming my beloved vehicle sits in the driveway collecting dust, only to emerge on Sundays to make my weekly grocery trip.

I don't want the oil industry to collapse within my lifetime. I have healthy stakes in Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Valero (VLO) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A)(RDS.B). These are great, old companies that have treated their investors well over the decades, and I want them to treat me well throughout my lifetime. But make no mistake - people own vehicles for autonomy first and foremost. They want to get exactly where they want to go at a moment's notice and they're willing to deal with traffic jams, potholes, blown transmissions, flat tires, oil changes, car accidents, speeding tickets and DUI's for that autonomy. If we get to the point as a society where someone else will do it for us in an instant, taking us exactly where we want to go when we want to go for less money while eliminating the need to buy car insurance and maintain a vehicle, the game is over for the oil industry, folks. Owning a car will be like owning a boat. It'll be for the die-hard hobbyists that like tinkering around with their vehicles and drag racing at the local 1/4 mile strip. Most can't be bothered with changing their own oil let alone swap out their exhaust manifolds with a set of longtube headers and a catback exhaust kit. Average Joe won't want to be bothered with the hassle.

An Overly Aggressive Timeline

I do believe this will come to pass. It is only a matter of time until the transportation industry becomes automated. When that happens, I believe the ICEV will be replaced by the "Electric Robo-Taxi" out of necessity, and that truly will be the arrow to the heart of the oil industry. It is the timeline I have a problem with because the report neglects a significant entity: the US Government. It assumes regulatory approval will be quick and easy.

1. Automated transportation will not be allowed on roads overnight. Even if the process of developing the next technology is perfected within the next decade, it will be impossible to roll the vehicles out on all the roadways. Mapping is incomplete and inconsistent, and if the technology is approved for use, it will likely only be allowed on the most significant highways or within highly urbanized areas with extremely accurate mapping. For rural America, this likely will not become a reality for a very long time.

2. There is very little work being done in the trucking industry. Professional drivers carrying freight will likely be safe for quite awhile.

3. Big Oil, Big Automotive and Big Transportation have a lot of very powerful lobbyists. Right now, the idea of autonomous robo-taxis is a pipe dream, but if it ever becomes a reality, you can bet lobbyists will be pouring gigantic sums of money into Congress to over-regulate as much of the industry as possible to limit its reach.

More than likely, these vehicles will only be allowed on a handful of roads initially. Or, maybe, entire arteries will be constructed for them that are "automated vehicles only" to remove the human element from the equation.

Imagine the world automated vehicles could give us. No accidents. No traffic jams. No stop signs or traffic lights. No traffic police. People could live 50 miles outside of urban areas in rural peace and quiet, call their robo-taxi and be chauffeured at speeds in excess of 100MPH to their job in minutes, never stopping until they're dropped off safely at their destination. This is an entirely possible reality, but for it to be possible, human beings will likely have to be removed from the equation. That means banning us from driving. While I do see that happening one day, I don't see it possible as long as all of us are alive today. There would be too much resistance from a culture that simply loves to drive. While a purely theoretical free market roll-out of this technology may follow an S-curve of exponential growth, I think human beings will prevent that. We don't exist in a truly free market.

For those of us concerned that (or rooting for) the Electric Vehicle will kill Big Oil, I believe your attention is misplaced. Look toward automated transportation. That, if anything, will be the real cause of Big Oil's demise.

Disclosure: I am/we are long CVX, XOM, VLO, RDS.B.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.