[Micele]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Tavek

Kortom, een Diesel is ongeveer 2.3 keer zo vervuilend naar klimaat toe (inclusief kost productie batterij EN vervanging batterij halverwege de levensduur) dan een ICE op 200k km.

Die levensduur van een batterijpack baseert op een studie van 2012. Toen waren de batterijpacks maar goed voor 100.000 miles of 160.000 km, daarom toen die 1,5 batterij of 1 vervanging vóór 200.000 km.

Ik zie dat aan de referte [20] van het artikel dat baseert op een studie van juni 2012, dat zijn pre-Tesla model S tijden of vóór het modern temperatuurmanagement van een batterijpack:

[20] Aguirre, K., Eisenhardt, L., Lim, C., Nelson, B., Norring, A., Slowik, P., Tu, N. Lifecycle analysiscomparison of a battery electric vehicle and a conventional gasoline vehicle. Calif Air Resour Board 2012.

https://www.ioes.ucla.edu/wp-content...nal-report.pdf
June 2012

1. Abstract

California continues to be an environmental leader with the implementation of AB32. The California Air Resource Board (CARB) has enacted several programs to ensure the success of this groundbreaking bill. This study, in association with CARB, calculates the energy inputs and CO2 equivalents emissions of a conventional gasoline vehicle (CV), a hybrid vehicle, and a battery electric vehicle (BEV) to determine the lifecycle environmental costs of each specific to California. A hybrid model’s results were generated based off of a weighted-average of CV and BEV results, using ? of the battery from the BEV data. Data used were a compilation of the California GREET model, Argonne National Laboratory articles and other relevant peerreviewed literature. The base cases of these models were then analyzed to test the sensitivity of a variety of assumptions, including carbon intensity of gasoline and electricity, varied electricity mixes, battery lifetime, and fuel economy. A cost effectiveness for each vehicle type was also calculated; the hybrid vehicle was found to be the most cost effective for reducing CO2. The net present cost of all vehicles was also calculated resulting in the hybrid being the least expensive over its lifetime, followed by the CV, and finally the BEV.
The main purpose of this study was to examine the environmental impact of each vehicle type, taking into account the lifecycle energy usage and both CO2 equivalents and air pollution emitted. In terms of environmental impacts, the BEV was determined to have the least overall impact, followed by the hybrid, and lastly the CV.
2. Introduction
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3.Methods
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Vehicle Assumptions

In the process of building our data inventory and creating our base case, we made several assumptions based on relevancy and the trends from the sources found in Appendix C.
First, we assumed the design of the cars to be exactly the same, excluding the CV engine and the BEV battery. The total weight of the CV used in our LCA is 1500 kg, comprising of 1275 kg of vehicle parts and 225 kg for the engine. The BEV assumed weight is 1575 kg, consisting of the same 1275 kg of vehicle parts but also a 300 kg lithium-ion battery. According to the findings of Southern California Edison, the effective vehicle life assumed for both vehicles is 180,000 miles based. Most existing lifecycle assessments on BEVs imply no battery replacement.
Moreover, the Nissan Leaf manufacturer states that the battery pack is designed to last the life of the car. Yet others such as Notter et al. accounted for a full battery replacement. We estimated an average value of 1.5 batteries for our calculations due to the need of partial replacement over the battery’s lifetime. As a battery is continuously recharged and discharged, it slowly loses capacity resulting in reduced driving range. Hence, maintenance is required to maintain the BEV’s performance. For contemporary electric vehicles, the batteries are composed of separate modules that can be replaced individually. Therefore, the whole battery does not need to be replaced. An LCA of a hybrid vehicle was also conducted based on a weighted average between the CV and BEV data, assuming ? of a battery being used.
The fuel economy of the CV is 31 mpg, which is comparable to a Nissan Versa or compact equivalent, 50 mpg for the hybrid, which is comparable to a Toyota Prius, and 100 mpg-eq for the BEV, comparable to the efficiency of a Nissan Leaf battery (.21 Kwh/Km). To calculate the BEV miles per gallon equivalents, we began with the energy density of gasoline, 121 MJ/gallon. We multiplied 121MJ/gal * 1kwhr/3.6MJ * 1km/0.21Kwh * 1mile/1.609 km to get 100 miles/gallon of gasoline equivalent. A final assumption used was the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) conversions rates for carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxides to carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2eq) in our final calculations of total CO2eq emitted.

Ze baseren zich daar op de eerste Nissan Leafs of nog ouder... en nemen maar gewoon 1,5 of batterijreplacement... achterhaald dus.

Ook op de eerste schattingen van Tesla betreft hun oude roadster, dan kan ik dat begrijpen, want Tesla was eerst (*2006) zeer pessimistisch over de levensduur van dat 54 kWh batterijpack, die voorspellingen kan ik terugvinden, Tesla voorspelde toen maar hoogstens 5 jaar en-of 160.000 km levensduur en dan was er nog maar 70% restcapaciteit over, maar na de laatste beperkte studie van 122 data van roadsters was de capaciteit toch 80-85 % gebleken (die studie was van 2013 of de eerste roadsters waren net 5 jaar.

Andere merken presteerden wslk nog wat minder naargelang klimaat, er is een "povere studie" over de eerste Nissan Leaf van #december 2012...

Daarom die batterij wissel voor 200.000 km of factor 1,5 batterij.

https://www.tesla.com/nl_BE/blog/bit...es?redirect=no
A Bit About Batteries
Martin Eberhard 30 november *2006
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By doing all of this we expect more than 100,000 miles of driving range and more than five years of useful life. However, at the end of this period the pack will have less capacity than when new (just like an internal combustion engine has less power and much worse emissions than when new). If, for example, you drive 10,000 miles per year at the end of five years you will have around 70 percent of the energy storage capacity of when new. This performance gives the Tesla Roadster battery pack the best range and lifetime combination of any production EV battery ever built.

Via https://www.popularmechanics.com/car...well-15701200/

By Steve Rousseau
Jul 16, 2013

Take Tesla's first car, the Roadster. Back in 2006, Elon Musk's automotive venture estimated that after five years of driving (averaging 10,000 miles per year), the charging capacity of the Roadster's battery pack would drop to 70 percent of its original capacity—leaving owners with an ever-shrinking range.

But based on a study released late last week, Tesla's life-expectancy projections for the Roadster's battery pack appear to be on the conservative side. After analyzing anonymous charging data from 122 Roadsters—accounting for roughly five percent of the current road-going fleet—non-profit EV advocacy group Plug In America concluded that Roadster batteries should retain between 80 to 85 percent of their original capacity after 100,000 miles.

The study encompasses more than three million cumulative miles driven, with roughly 25,000 miles on the odometer of the average Roadster (and in one case, more than 87,000). It found that the Roadster's battery backs are losing on average 3.7 "ideal miles of range" (Tesla's proprietary battery-capacity measurement unit) every 10,000 miles. Plug in America conducted a similar study examining the Nissan Leaf, and saw similar degradation patterns. The difference between the two cars seems to be that with the Roadster, unlike the Leaf, researchers saw "no significant correlation between climate and battery pack longevity." Although Tesla fans might be quick to point out the California-based automaker is producing the industry's best batteries, the study found that there wasn't enough variation in the climate data in its study of the Roadster, "so it's possible an effect from climate will emerge as more data is collected."

Tesla Roadster, released 13 juli 2013:
http://pop.h-cdn.co/assets/cm/15/06/...tery-Study.pdf

Nissan Leaf, released december 2012:
http://pop.h-cdn.co/assets/cm/15/06/...ery-Survey.pdf

VUB mag die studie eens opnieuw doen met een levenscyclus van 300.000 km voor één gemiddeld modern batterijpack met BMS.
De BEV zal er nog beter uitkomen...