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Oud 21 februari 2022, 07:48   #15769
parcifal
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Deze tweet van Rob Lee is overduidelijk :

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1495567963449135107

Citaat:
Russia did not mass
  • 75% of its battalion tactical groups,
  • the largest amphibious force in the Black Sea since the early 1990s,
  • numerous district-level assets,
  • armies from the Central/Eastern Military Districts
just to recognize the Donbas as independent.

Russian behavior changed in 2021: the rhetoric, demands, and buildup were unprecedented, which suggests its next steps might be unprecedented too. There will be costs if Russia escalates, so only ambitious political goals would be worth that, which would require substantial force

That probably either means an aggressive compellence campaign or regime change, which could require an at least partial occupation. Either option would be fast, violent, and bloody for the Ukrainian military. There is no benefit to being slow once it starts, only costs and risks.

Laatst gewijzigd door parcifal : 21 februari 2022 om 07:52.
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