Nu de gesprekken tussen Rusland en Navo nergens heen lijken te gaan, wordt een militaire interventie van welke soort ook, waarschijnlijker.
Een permanente bezetting van een groot deel van Oekraiene is niet mogelijk en ook grote Oekraiense steden kan het Russische leger in principe niet benaderen en bezetten omdat het verzet gigantisch zou zijn, maar ze kunnen wel een korte operatie uitvoeren en maximale schade aanrichten aan infrastructuur en militaire voorzieningen, luchthavens, (spoor)wegen, industrie etc.
Op die manier kan Putin Zelensky het mes op de keel zetten om een nieuwe deal te maken, maar de prijs zou zeer hoog zijn.
De nieuwe sancties die dan komen zouden wel eens echt kunnen bijten.
ALS Rusland Oekraiene opnieuw aanvalt (de balans is nog niet gekanteld momenteel blijkbaar) is dit hoe het zou kunnen gebeuren :
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...-here-n1287369
Worst case scenario :
Citaat:
Seize eastern half of Ukraine
This worst-case scenario would see Russia launch an air and ground campaign across Ukraine to seize the entire Donbas region east of the Dneiper river.
A massive invasion and occupation, what retired Army general Hodges calls "the big red arrow" across Ukraine, is less likely, and it's not clear Russia has sufficient forces to hold that much territory after seizing it, several experts said.
But under Putin's rule, Russia has invaded Ukraine before, and invaded Georgia in 2008. It also intervened in Syria to support the regime of Bashar Assad. In each case, Western governments were taken by surprise. And in each case, the threat of sanctions failed to dissuade Putin."Sanctions are an incredibly weak deterrent and have consistently failed to deter Russia from the use of force in Ukraine and elsewhere," said Michael Kofman, research program director in the Russia Studies Program at the CNA think tank.
Given Putin's track record, there is no reason to rule out another invasion of Ukraine, according to Kofman. The case of Russia's invasion in Georgia 14 years ago offers a rough analogy for a similar operation in Ukraine, he said. In 2008, Russia launched a major military offensive to prevent the Georgian government from reestablishing control over the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and the operation succeeded in imposing a political outcome in line with Moscow's interests.
If Russia does opt for a larger operation, Moscow may decide to avoid a long-term occupation of cities and simply pull back after inflicting a devastating strike to Ukraine's army, some experts said.
Previous smaller-scale operations failed to resolve Russia's dispute with Ukraine or to meet Moscow's political objectives, Kofman said. "If they weren't able to compel Ukraine towards a desirable outcome by taking half of the Donbas, what would another limited incursion achieve exactly?"
Russia could seize much of the east and demand a new political arrangement from Kyiv, or simply annex the area as it did with Crimea, experts said.
In the meantime, Russia's buildup continues. Military analysts say Russia is sending units from the country's Far East on trains bound for the western region near Ukraine.
"They're still gathering forces," Kofman said
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