Discussie: Het Tesla aandeel
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Oud 19 november 2019, 20:07   #5697
Micele
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Aandeel plots richting $260, wtf?



De pickup "cybertruck" is pas donderdagavond local time
Moet natuurlijk $360 zijn.

Gaan de cybertruck-reservaties (in 3 dagen weten we meer) toch een short queeze veroorzaken? Veel hangt er vanaf hoe die pickup in de smaak valt in pickup-country USA...

De coverdays zouden nu tot 2,64 gedaald zijn... (meestal ruim boven 3)

Een stukje uit seekingalpha over de hardnekkige shorters ...
Van iemand die long gaat natuurlijk.

Citaat:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/430...=mw_quote_news

Tesla Bears Have Nine Lives

Nov. 19, 2019

Summary

- Nasdaq released the latest data.
- Bulls and bears continue to duel it out.

This article discusses the near-term risks to bears.

I bet it feels like an eternity to retail investors who may not have the financial freedom to sit on their Tesla investment for a decade or more. On the other hand, the relatively fortunate would say, "Why are you in the stock market if you can't sit on your investments for decades?" To each their own.

Short Interest Has Dropped

Nasdaq released the latest data:



Tesla is one of the most shorted companies on an absolute dollar value basis: As of Oct. 31, the latest official data available, 31.8 million shares remain short, or $11 billion at $350 per share.

Days to Cover is down to three days, primarily due to the volume surge following the earnings report deemed favorable by market participants:



The above graph does not show the most recent figure, but 2.64 days per Nasdaq is one of the lowest since the major short squeeze of 2013. In other words, don't hold your breath for a "short burn of the century" anytime soon, and, no, the recent rise over the last month does not qualify. Not even close.

Nevertheless, the bears are not out of the woods.

Risks to Bears

Although seemingly having nine lives, bears must be cognizant of these risks:

First, even though it pulled back a bit, the short interest is still high. With the bear boat still packed, there's always room for a short squeeze, Part Deux.

Second, the Cybertruck hype is high and rising, so the unveiling is likely to be a major hit and may even generate hundreds of thousands of reservations. If there still are bears out there in the wild who continue to falsely assume that Tesla is about to run out of cash despite its more than $5 billion in cash on hand as well as positive free cash flow in four out of the last five quarters, then a flurry of reservations may change a few minds. Just sayin'.

And last but not least, and my favorite, the long-heralded and the long-awaited, the dream, the all-elusive oasis, the possible, the potential, and in my opinion, the likely... credit rating upgrade by S&P Global:

The positive outlook reflects an increased likelihood that Tesla's credit metrics will improve more than our base-case projection because of higher demand and manufacturing-related efficiencies. We assume debt to EBITDA falls below 4x, with slightly negative free operating cash flow in 2020.

We could consider a positive rating action if there is steady or improving demand as it rolls out new products and expands overseas, the company avoids material operational missteps, free operating cash flow is at least around breakeven, and it maintains what we consider adequate liquidity, meaning in most circumstances cash balances at or exceeding $2.5 billion.

Given Tesla's positive free cash flow in four of the last five quarters (oops, did I mention that before?), a credit rating upgrade is long overdue, but maybe the credit agencies have simply been waiting to see how cyber the truck is.

In any case, I estimate that Tesla will achieve all of the conditions S&P Global deemed necessary for their blessing in the next two or three quarters.

One More Thing

My one more thing is that Tesla may have a "one more thing" during Thursday's Cybertruck unveiling, and depending on how impactful it is to the company's intrinsic value, the stock price may react accordingly.

If the Cybertruck comes in champagne pink, market participants would likely go, "meh," but if Tesla demonstrates a manufacturing innovation that allows rapid, simultaneous, and less-hellish production ramps, along with higher gross margins, then... what do we need for a short burn of the century again?

Bottom Line

The short interest in Tesla has dropped and Days to Cover now is near all-time lows, but Tesla is accelerating toward a potentially positive event this week.

I'm just not sure if bears are on their eighth or ninth life.
...

Disclosure: I am/we are long TSLA. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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