Discussie: Het Tesla aandeel
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Oud 16 oktober 2019, 15:55   #5633
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Micele's schermafbeelding
Geregistreerd: 18 mei 2005
Locatie: Limburg
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Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Tavek Bekijk bericht
Ik krijg net bericht dat een grote klant (maakindustrie) significant gaat afbouwen, zowel kwa machinepark als personeel.

Dat is al de zoveelste. En deze keer is het niet offshoren naar China, maar effectief de vraag die slabbakt.
Alles rond de auto zit in een dal. Het zal wachten worden tot minstens halfweg 2020, wie weet 2021. Vooral ICE krijgt het alleszins zwaar te verduren.

Chinas autoverkoop slabakt al 15 maanden van de laatste 16...

The auto sales slump in China, which is the world’s largest car market, refuses to die down. In more than two decades, vehicle sales slid for the first time in China in 2018 and the country’s car sales are likely to fall again this year amid macro-economic headwinds. Markedly, in September, car sales in China sank for the 15th time in the past 16 months.
Ook de gans afgeschafte of **gehalveerde subsidies voor NEV hebben daarmee te maken.

China NEV Sales for 2019 H1 + July and August

We held off the 2019 H1 summary for a while in order to get a better idea about the impact of sharply reduced NEV subsidies from July onwards. The overall Chinese car market has been in decline for 14 consecutive months now, while the sales of NEVs continued with rapid growth, at least until June. From January to June, ICE-only vehicles lost nearly 2 Million sales (-15%) compared to 2018 H1 and NEVs increased by 260 000 units (+66 %) for the same period.
**Since then, the tide has changed for NEVs as well: July NEV sales were off by -2 %, including imports and LCVs; preliminary results for August show a 13 % decline year-on-year. In summary, the changes in Government support were as follows: NEVs with an e-range below 250 km (up from 150 km last year) do not qualify for subsidies anymore, those with longer e-range have subsidies cut by around 50 %. Direct local subsidies expire, in favour of charging infrastructure investments. The new rules became fully effective in July; following a 3 month transition period with partial subsidy cuts. Some OEM have indicated to lower list prices to compensate, still, NEVs above 250 km e-range can become up to 10 % more expensive for buyers. Those under 250 km range, mostly mini- and small cars, will become much less attractive as NEVs.

Ahead of the July cuts, demand was pulled into June, which has 1/3rd higher sales than normal. The weak July and August sales partly reflected the payback for the June rush. In addition, the supply of several low-range BEVs was reduced or halted, either for further battery upgrades, or infinitely. Smaller makers of EVs in the lower price categories we affected the most during H1, but in July and August, losses have also spread among the more resilient players.

The forecast for 2019 has a lot more uncertainty than last year. Year-to date August, plug-in sector sales in China are still up 44 % compared to 2018, but in decline for the first time since 18 months. Makers of cars with less than 250 km e-range must upgrade batteries yet another time to keep them in the market. Above that barrier there is now only little incentive for EV makers to escape subsidy cuts by e-range upgrades. To make things worse, new cases of battery fires (less than 100 incidents, but still) have disturbed the confidence of consumers and legislators. The overall Chinese car market is still in reverse; the rates of decline are lower now, but they compare to the weakening monthly data of 2018 H2.

The fundamentals, like Government targets for EV deployment, ICE restrictions, EV portfolios and charging infrastructure investments speak for further NEV growth, but it will we slower than the 75 % rsp 79 % of the previous two years. Our outlook for 2019 is a volume of 1,5 to 1,6 million NEVs, (Cars, SUVs, MPVs and LCVs) in a light vehicle market of 25,6 million, 7 % lower than 2018. The best estimate, 1540k, converts to a NEV share of 6,0 % and a growth of 33 % over 2018.

** Reducing dependence on subsidies

Subsidy reductions in China are not a new thing. The Government has risen the bar for approvals several times to push the EV and battery industry towards longer e-range and more advanced battery technology. The picture shows the stepwise reductions of central subsidies, which were considerable. Until 2018, EV makers have mostly succeeded to avoid cuts by battery upgrades and amazingly fast changes in product portfolios to meet new requirements.

The new regime goes further and enforces targets to consolidate the auto industry to fewer and more competitive players, which are not depending on generous state support. In addition, direct local subsidies from provinces and cities were dropped and replaced by support for the necessary charging infrastructure. Times will get tougher for makers with insufficient capital / development funds and sub-standard models.

In China wachten ze ook op model 3 made in China, bouwjaar 2020.

In Europa wacht de ICE-klant wslk ook op full Euronorm 6d, want die Euro 6d-Temp heeft zo een hatelijk achtervoegsel Temporair...
Of ze wachten best op Euronorm 7... (als ze kunnen)

Laatst gewijzigd door Micele : 16 oktober 2019 om 16:23.
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