[Micele]

Bloomberg corrigeert nu zijn schatting naar +80k* productie, en +6k/week
(4 dagen geleden was dat nog 76.834)

By Tom Randall and Dean Halford
Updated at: March 26, 2019

Our best estimate is that Tesla has manufactured 230,319 Model 3s so far—or 74,656 in the current quarter—and is now building approximately 6,024 a week.

Tesla production Bloomberg estimate Difference
2018 Q1 9,766 9,285 -5%
2018 Q2 28,578 27,957 -2%
2018 Q3 53,239 53,457 +0.4%
2018 Q4 61,394 61,113 -0.5%
2019 Q1 — 80,161* —

* Our Q1 estimate uses our model's latest data and will continue to update until Tesla reports its totals in the first week of April
Source: Tesla, Bloomberg

Tom Randall gaat zelfs nog hoger: 81.263 model 3 productie, amai dat is vet, maar nuanceert het in de context.

ff vasthouden:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Tom Randall Senior Reporter tsrandall

Why We Think Our Estimates May Be Too High

With one week left in the quarter, Tesla is rushing to deliver as many cars as possible in the U.S., Europe and China. Our Model 3 Tracker has seen a flood of new VIN submissions, and our estimate for Tesla’s quarterly production is rising. It's now running well above the estimates of most analysts and investors. It’s an uncomfortable place for a model to be.



Lately we’ve seen an especially large number of VINS coming to us from across Europe—most notably Norway, Germany, Netherlands and Switzerland—as well as a surge of Standard Range Plus models reported from 19 states and provinces in the U.S. And Canada. VINs reported to us in the last few days have increased our total estimate for the quarter to about 81,000.

To put that number in perspective, it's not far from what most analysts expect for total Tesla production—including the Model S and Model X. Outspoken Tesla bull Ross Gerber, the fund manager for Gerber Kawasaki, who recently toured Tesla’s factory, predicts 72,000 Model 3s. A spreadsheet of more than 50 estimates gathered by Twitter users shows an average production forecast of 69,118.

As we’ve written before, we tend to agree with most people who think our model is running too high. Our model is based on two datasets of Vehicle Identification Numbers—VINs registered with safety regulators prior to production and VINs reported to Bloomberg after delivery. We think both could be distorted by the international rollout. If so, we’ve identified several improvements to our model that could prevent a repeat in the future. But making such changes before seeing this quarter’s reported data would be arbitrary, so if we're wrong, we’ll just take our knocks and make the changes for next quarter.

While we urge caution with our top-line numbers this quarter, the model is still worth looking at. Given the negative sentiment around Tesla this quarter, including recent analyst cuts to delivery forecasts and estimates for long-term demand, the Model 3 Tracker suggests that Tesla's production, at least, remains surprisingly strong.

Uitleveringen is natuurlijk heel wat anders... Delivery hell EU-China...