[zonbron]

Assad en Poetin zullen winnen!

FT - The west is playing in to Moscow’s hands on Syria
29 augustus 2013

Every now and then one of my English-speaking colleagues asks me what Russia will do if the western powers make good on their threats and strike at Syria. My answer is: nothing. Russia does not have to do anything, it can just sit quiet. The situation is advantageous to Moscow. Our leaders will be only too happy to see the US start a new war it cannot win.

Consider the options. A land invasion is out of the question. Sustained air bombardment risks the loss of pilots, and would therefore be unacceptable for the public in the west. The likeliest avenue is missile strikes; President Bashar al-Assad’s regime will undoubtedly suffer – but Russia and Iran will be able to make up for any losses. The allies will give Mr Assad a bloody nose and that is it. Punitive strikes cannot bring about a turning point in the hostilities. Any substantial change in the correlation of forces on the ground is not feasible.

So, morally and psychologically, the Assad regime will score points, at least in the eyes of the developing world – and certainly in those of Russia. Propaganda is certain to draw parallels with the intervention in Iraq 10 years ago. It is, of course, very easy to picture the US as a global bully ever bent on inventing pretexts for aggression. Iran will be jubilant. Many people in Syria will be inclined to resist a new imperialist crusade.

Upping the ante is advantageous for Moscow. The more the western powers are involved in the conflict, the more deeply they are immersed, the more opportunities emerge for Russia to back the Assad regime as a “legitimate authority under attack”. Since a land operation can be ruled out, it may appear in the end that not only has Mr Assad survived but also that Moscow and Tehran have won in the global confrontation with the coalition of the west, Turkey and the Arab League.

Western officials imply that a punitive strike is not intended to engineer regime change, nor is it meant to give the opposition an opportunity to deal Mr Assad a decisive blow. “We just want to punish the dictator and send him a message: do not even think of using the chemical weapons again or else ...” Well, suppose he never uses these weapons again. Does this mean that he is bound to lose the war? Not by a long shot.

...


At this moment – when the wheel of fortune seems to have turned in Mr Assad’s favour, thanks to assistance from Iran and Hizbollah – the Syrian leader is more likely than ever to believe that it pays to tough it out. Indeed, he is vigorously asserting himself and now looks more confident than ever.