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Milieu Hier kunnen alle discussies woden gevoerd over milieu, kernenergie, klimaatswijziging, ....

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Oud 15 september 2020, 11:05   #1
Micele
Secretaris-Generaal VN
 
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Geregistreerd: 18 mei 2005
Locatie: Limburg
Berichten: 50.182
Standaard BP Rapport 2020: energievooruitzichten 2020...

BP weet het nu wel, fossiel gaat nu langzaam beginnen uitsterven.

De pandemie zou een zetje gegeven hebben, want hun vorig rapport klonk niet zo.

3 scenario's, de middenweg "Rapid" zal het wel worden.

Citaat:
https://electrek.co/2020/09/14/bp-re...-green-energy/

BP report: Oil is dying, long live green energy

Michelle Lewis - Sep. 14th 2020
...

BP’s three scenarios are Rapid Transition (carbon emissions from energy use to fall by around 70% by 2050), Net Zero (carbon emissions from energy use fall by ?over 95% by 2050), and Business-as-usual (emissions in 2050 less than 10% below 2018 levels). But what unites all three scenarios is this:

As a result of these policies and shifts in societal preferences, there is a decline in the share of ?hydrocarbons (coal, oil, and natural gas) in the global energy system in all three scenarios. This is ?matched by a corresponding increase in the role of renewable energy as the world increasingly ?electrifies. The scale of this shift varies significantly across the three scenarios, with the share of ?hydrocarbons in primary energy declining from around 85% in 2018 to between 70-20% by 2050 ?and the share of renewable energy increasing to between 20-60%.?

In BP’s first two scenarios, COVID-19 accelerates the slowdown in oil consumption, leading to it peaking last year. In its Business-as-usual scenario, oil demand peaks by 2030.

BP chief economist Spencer Dale said:

[The energy transition] would be an unprecedented event. Never in modern history has the demand for any traded fuel declined in absolute terms.

[Meanwhile,] the share of renewable energy grows more quickly than any fuel ever seen in history.

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corpora...y-outlook.html
Citaat:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-bp...idUKKBN26410O?
SEPTEMBER 14, 2020

Fossil fuel demand to take historic knock amid COVID-19 scars: BP

LONDON (Reuters) - Fossil fuel consumption is set to shrink for the first time in modern history as climate policies boost renewable energy while the coronavirus epidemic leaves a lasting effect on global energy demand, BP said in a forecast.

BP’s 2020 benchmark Energy Outlook underpins Chief Executive Bernard Looney’s new strategy to “reinvent” the 111-year old oil and gas company by shifting renewables and power.

London-based BP expects global economic activity to only partially recover from the epidemic over the next few years as travel restrictions ease. But some “scarring effects” such as work from home will lead to slower growth in energy consumption.

BP this year extended its outlook into 2050 to align it with the company’s strategy to slash the carbon emissions from its operations to net zero by the middle of the century.

It includes three scenarios that assume different levels of government policies aimed at meeting the 2015 Paris climate agreement to limit global warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels.

Under its central scenario, BP forecasts COVID-19 will knock around 3 million barrels per day (bpd) off by 2025 and 2 million bpd by 2050.

In its two aggressive scenarios, COVID-19 accelerates the slow down in oil consumption, leading to it peaking last year. In the third scenario, oil demand peaks at around 2030.

Graphic: BP COVID-19 impact (BP 2020 Energy Outlook) -



Graphic: BP liquid fuels demand (2020 BP Energy Outlook) -



In the longer term, demand for coal, oil and natural gas is set to slow dramatically.

While the share of fuels has shrunk in the past as a percentage of the total energy pie, their consumption has never contracted in absolute terms, BP chief economist Spencer Dale told reporters.

“(The energy transition) would be an unprecedented event,” Dale said. “Never in modern history has the demand for any traded fuel declined in absolute terms.”

At the same time, “the share of renewable energy grows more quickly than any fuel ever seen in history.”

Under BP’s central Rapid scenario, non-fossil fuels account for the majority of global energy sources from the early 2040s onward, with the share of hydrocarbons falling by more than half over the next 30 years.

Even with energy demand set to expand on the back of growing population and emerging economies, the sources of energy will shift dramatically to renewable sources such as wind and solar, Dale said.

The share of fossil fuels is set to decline from 85% of total primary energy demand in 2018 to between 20% and 65% by 2050 in the three scenarios.

At the same time, the share of renewables is set to grow from 5% in 2018 to up to 60% by 2050.

In its forecast, BP said the growth in global economic activity slows “considerably” over the next 30 years from its past 20-year average, due in part to lasting effects of the epidemic as well as the worsening impact of climate change on economic activity, particularly in Africa and Latin America.

BP starts on Monday a three-day investor event where it will detail its energy transition strategy.

Graphic: Low carbon transition (BP 2020 Energy Outlook) -

Micele is offline   Met citaat antwoorden
Oud 6 oktober 2020, 13:46   #2
Micele
Secretaris-Generaal VN
 
Micele's schermafbeelding
 
Geregistreerd: 18 mei 2005
Locatie: Limburg
Berichten: 50.182
Standaard

Electriciteitsproductie USA : rol van kolen is langzaam maar zeker uitdovend.

Andere nemen over.

Admin Trump kan dat ook niet verhinderen.

"Men" hoopt dat een Admin Biden dat nog gaat versnellen, door de subsidies op fossiel aan te pakken.

Citaat:
President Donald Trump vowed four years ago to bring back the U.S. coal industry.

That never happened, as the New York Times and the public radio program The Allegheny Front each pointed out recently through in-depth looks at coal country since Trump’s 2016 election.

Now as the Nov. 3 presidential election draws nearer, Wall Street has been examining what a potential shift in power in Washington might mean for the U.S. energy sector.

Despite the Trump administration’s oil-and-gas friendly policies, including its push to open up public lands for exploration and slashing of environmental protections, the shift away from fossil fuels is already well underway.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, on Monday underscored how a potential White House win by former Vice President Joe Biden and Democrats taking control of the Senate could accelerate the move by the U.S. toward cleaner power sources.

But first, here’s their chart showing how coal already has been declined since early 2000, in terms of powering the U.S. electricity grid.


Coal's diminished role since 2000 BLACKROCK INVESTMENT INSTITUTE, U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION

It also shows that the share of electricity generated by renewable sources rose to 17% in 2019 from 10% in 2010.

“A Democratic sweep could accelerate the decarbonization of the power sector, by extending and expanding tax credits for renewable power sources and other zero-carbon industrial sources such as carbon sequestration,” wrote a BlackRock Investment Institute team led by Mike Pyle, global chief investment strategist.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wa...=mw_quote_news
Citaat:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...nge-2020-09-29

Here’s where Trump and Biden stand on climate change

Biden would cut fossil-fuel subsidies, and Trump says U.S. carries unfair burden compared with the rest of world
...

“What do you believe about the science of climate change, sir?” moderator Chris Wallace asked President Trump. “Do you believe that human pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, contribute to climate change?”
...

Wallace pushed Trump on pulling the U.S. from the voluntary international Paris climate accord and his rollback of Obama-era environmental moves (some of the dropped regulations pre-date Obama).

“What do you believe about the science of climate change, and what will you do over the next four years to confront it?” Wallace asked the president.

“I want crystal clean water and air, we now have the lowest carbon … if you look at our numbers now we are doing phenomenally,” Trump replied. He called the Paris agreement a “disaster” and repeated yet again that the historic wildfires in the West in recent years are due to poor forest management. “The forest floor is loaded up with dead trees. You drop a cigarette in there the whole forest burns down,” he said. Just more than half of California forests are federally managed land.

“But sir, if you believe in the science of climate change, why have you rolled back the Obama Clean Power Plan, which limited carbon emissions in power plants?” Wallace pressed. “Because it was driving energy prices through the sky,” Trump answered. “Why have you relaxed fuel economy standards?” Wallace asked. “You’re talking about a tiny difference,” Trump said.

Most analysts said it was the longest public exchange on climate change they could remember Trump engaging in.

“For the first time, President Trump acknowledged that human activity has, at least in part, caused climate change,” the American Conservation Coalition, a conservative environment group, said in a statement.

Biden, for his part, used the debate time to push his $2 trillion green stimulus plan. “Nobody’s gonna build another coal-fired plant in America. They’re gonna move to renewable energy,” the former vice president said.

As was the tactic throughout the debate, the president jumped in as Biden spoke, challenging that the price of the climate-change proposal advanced by the Democrat was much higher and the plan more aligned to the Green New Deal advanced by the progressive arm of the party.


“Not true,” Biden replied.

Here’s a deeper look at the candidates’ records on climate change.

Laatst gewijzigd door Micele : 6 oktober 2020 om 14:05.
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