Het Tesla aandeel

[Micele]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Tavek

Geen nieuwe aandelenuitgifte nodig.

Ze gaan lenen van de chinezen om de gigafactory in shanghai te financieren. Die half zoveel gaat kosten als die in Nevada.

Zou zelfs maar *2 miljard kosten, Gigafactory Nevada kost minstens 5 miljard (indien afgewerkt)
En vooral in China gaat het meestal 3 x zo snel...

*bron:
https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/02/inv...ory/index.html

Tsla aandeel staat nu zelfs $332... Musk zijn uitleg en ... moet deze keer goed aangekomen zijn, en natuurlijk ook bepaalde verdere vooruitzichten (China, autopilot AI-chip, model 3 doorsneeprijs haalt nu gemiddeld 60k (incl autopilot), enz..)

btw, in de nabeurs gisteren werden 60 maal meer aandelen verhandeld als normaal.

[Micele]

En plotseling is Tesla toch relatief goed genoeg, zelfs Goldman Sachs draait zijn kar langzaam bij...

(wat +10% toch uitmaakt, en eigenlijk was het meeste al weken op voorhand bekend) Het is toch niet alleen omdat Musk een bepaalde maturiteit toonde in zijn uitspraken?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/wall...ion-point.html

Wall Street believes this could be the turning point for Tesla. Here are the highlights from every major analyst

Michael Bloom | Thomas Franck
Published 3 Hours Ago Updated 1 Hour Ago

Tesla shares leaped higher after chief executive Elon Musk said the electric car maker beat Wall Street's revenue expectations, apologized for prior bad manners toward analysts and reiterated a promise for future profitability.

Tesla's stock jumped 9 percent in trading Thursday.

Oppenheimer, which upgraded Tesla shares to outperform following the earnings report, told clients the company may finally be on track with Model 3 production.

"With higher volumes and slower spending, we believe Tesla has reached a critical inflection point in its development," the Oppenheimer analysts wrote. "While we have been cautious on Model 3 ramp, we believe gross margin performance on Model 3 will carry the stock over the next 12 months or more."

Even Goldman Sachs — which has consistently advised clients sell Tesla stock (and continued to do so Thursday) — conceded that the quarter was "solid" for the Palo Alto, California-based company.

"This was a positive quarter. Automotive gross margins, cash burn, and ending cash balance were better than expected. In addition, the company may have turned the corner on its historical operational mis-execution," the Goldman note read. "We see the second quarter as a positive step for Tesla as a manufacturing organization, but a step that requires continued forward momentum in cost control, operating efficiency, and ultimately positive cash flow."

Here's a wrap of all the major analyst opinions:

Goldman Sachs (Sell):

"This was a positive quarter. Automotive gross margins, cash burn, and ending cash balance were better than expected. In addition, the company may have turned the corner on its historical operational mis-execution —further noting they have learned from past experiences and expect to improve capital efficiency at new plants going forward. However, improvement from historical launches was also communicated for both the Model X and Model 3 launches. As a result, we see 2Q18 as a positive step for Tesla as a manufacturing organization, but a step that requires continued forward momentum in cost control, operating efficiency, and ultimately positive cash flow. In that vein, we still see shares as over-valued. We believe there is uncertainty as to whether the company can convert the interest they are seeing in the Model 3 into growing orders at the higher price point offered as well as sustain that level through the initial pent-up demand phase, reduced tax credits, and incremental EV competition. Further, the company needs to control its opex —which was slightly better vs. our estimate for the quarter, but the 2H18 trajectory is higher than we previously forecast."

Oppenheimer (Outperform):

"We upgrade to Outperform and introduce a $385 PT. While we have been cautious on Model 3 ramp, we believe gross margin performance on Model 3 will carry the stock over the next 12+ months. As we highlighted in our July 30 note, incremental GP for the Model 3 has the potential to generate sufficient cash for Tesla to reach positive operating cash flow. With higher volumes and slower spending, we believe Tesla has reached a critical inflection point in its development. We expect bearish arguments now to focus on limited potential for Model 3 volume at higher price levels. We note that despite some recent price pressure, Model S and X average selling prices have remained at relatively elevated levels. We would not be surprised to see a similar scenario play out for Model 3."

Normura Instinet (Buy):

"'I'm Still Standing' is an up-tempo song by Elton John about triumph in the face of adversity. And it sums up our thoughts on Tesla's second-quarter earnings report and outlook — that a major step function up in third-quarter revenue will strongly counter the popular narrative around bankruptcy risk, thus reducing an estimated $12 billion in short interest and driving shares higher."

"We expect the focus will now shift from production to growth and the market opportunity for Model 3. Along those lines, Tesla made several positive comments around Model 3 demand: Model 3 exceeded 50 percent share of the mid-sized premium sedan market in the U.S. for the first time in July, four of the top five vehicles traded in for Model 3 were from lower price points (Toyota Prius, Honda Accord, Honda Civic, and Nissan Leaf), and Tesla has received over 60,000 requests for Model 3 test drives, and early results indicate that the test drive-to-order conversion ratio is higher relative to Model S."
(...)

Ondertussen blijft de aandeelwaarde nipt boven $330 pendelen.

Nog enkele dagen wachten en er zal weer desinformatie en gazettepraat over Tesla moeten verschijnen, wordt leuk wat ze nu weer gaan moeten fantaseren.

Zoiets voorzichtigs van: "maar gaat Tesla ook nog winst kunnen maken met het instapmodel van 35k?" En dan zegt Tesla voor de 10e keer: "ja, zodra we 7000 k/ per week produceren" en verder slaapwel.

Directe link naar rapport:
http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/723...e-9ecac0ad7712

Voor de nieuwsgierigen het lopend bedrag aan voorschotten is nog gestegen tov 31 dec 2017:

Customer deposits
June 30, 2018: $ 942,129
December 31, 2017: $ 853,919

[Micele]

vervolg verkoopcijfers -enkel USA- voor juli is ook al bekend, Tesla moet niet meer wachten op de 200k federal credit trigger die is extra vertraagd tot na 1 juli, men ziet het aan de enorme stijging tov juni. De model 3 wagens in transit mogen asap geleverd worden in de USA: (en hoeven niet meer persé een groot deel naar Canada, of ergens op de parking)

Dat verschil van ~8000 wagens aan 56k is een 450 miljoen jump aan omzet in 1 maand.

Rangschikking eerste 10, incl. PHEV...
https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

2018 Monthly Sales Chart

2018 U.S. EV SALES JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC --- TOTAL

Tesla Model 3* 1875 2485 3820 3875 6250 6062 14250 ---- 38,617
Toyota Prius Prime 1496 2050 2922 2626 2924 2237 1984 --- 16,239
Tesla Model S* 800 1125 3375 1250 1520 2750 1200 --- 12,020
Tesla Model X* 700 975 2825 1025 1450 2550 1325 --- 10,850
Chevrolet Volt* 713 983 1782 1325 1675 1336 1475 --- 9,289
Chevrolet Bolt EV* 1177 1424 1774 1275 1125 1083 1175 --- 9,033
Honda Clarity PHEV* 594 881 1061 1049 1639 1445 1375 --- 8,044
Nissan LEAF 150 895 1500 1171 1576 1367 1149 --- 7,808
Ford Fusion Energi 640 794 782 742 740 604 / --- 4,302
BMW i3 (BEV + REx) 382 623 992 503 424 580 464 --- 3,968
...

De stekkerhybrides van Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, Porsche hinken ver achterop in de USA...

Lol hoe meer ik hier post hoe meer het aandeel terug aantrekt ik zie + $338
dat voelt niet goed aan bij de shorters:
https://www.investopedia.com/news/te...edium=referral

[Tavek]

lol 15 % en de dag is nog niet gedaan

gestoord

Eduard jong...ge had moeten blijven zitten.

[Tavek]

14250 Model 3's geleverd in Juli.

lol

Q3 = profit time

[Tavek]

reeds volume van 22 miljoen aandelen vandaag.

lol

Er zijn shorts die nu PIJN hebben....

[Tavek]

Gigafactory doet nu 20 GWh per jaar aan batterijen voor wagens.

Meer als al de rest samen....

Het spel lijkt me gespeeld. De trein van Tesla is nu vertrokken.

[Micele]

Terwijl ik den hof aan het sproeien was +16,.. % nipt onder $350 afgesloten, dat was de 2e hoogste dagwinst sinds het bestaan van Tesla.

YTD terug +12 %

PERFORMANCE
5 Day 17.57%
1 Month 13.11%
3 Month 18.80%
YTD 12.22%

[Tavek]

Ik zit weer op + 90 dollar per aandeel.

lel

Belachelijke winst mocht ik nu verkopen.

Laat mr, ik zit deze uit. Als Tesla winstcijfers ten toon spreidt gaat dit los over de 500...

[Micele]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Tavek

14250 Model 3's geleverd in Juli.

lol

Q3 = profit time

En de cijfers van Canada komen daar ook nog bij...

In juni al dook daar plots het model 3 op als concurrent voor ICEs, wat gaat dat tegen einde van 2018 worden? Wetende dat het model 3 daar maar 2 maanden verkocht wordt en YTD al op de hielen van de ICEs zitten?

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/search/label/Canada

Tesla Model 3 vs The Others

Pl Model 2018

1 Mercedes C-Class 5,366
2 Audi A4 3,215
3 BMW 3-Series 3,174
4 Tesla Model 3 2,506

The Tesla Model 3 had its first full sales month in June, and it was immediately the Best Selling model in its category, jumping to Fourth in the 2018 ranking, and with the waiting list still to be completely satisfied, expect another strong month in July, so the Californian will probably surpass the Audi and BMW models next month.

En wat in Canada gaat gebeuren, gaat volgend jaar vanaf zomer? ook in bepaalde Europese landen gebeuren... zeker als daar het instapmodel nog bij kan komen.

As for the Mercedes C-Class, things are trickier, as the Merc usually registers some 1,000 units/month performances, so i guess the Model 3 will only be able to outsell it once the Short Range version is effectively on the roads.

Met bepaalde Europese landen bedoel ik de pro-EV landen zoals bvb Nederland, waar model S en X de meeste ICEs in hun klasse aftroeven:
http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/search/label/Netherlands

[Tavek]

Voor het einde van dit jaar komt er een aankondiging van een Europese gigafactory.

Tegen 2021 zouden dan Europese Model 3's en Y's van de band moeten rollen.

Dan kunnen we eindelijk er eentje kopen zonder al die belachelijke invoertaksen en wisselkoerstoestanden.

[Micele]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Tavek

Voor het einde van dit jaar komt er een aankondiging van een Europese gigafactory.

Tegen 2021 zouden dan Europese Model 3's en Y's van de band moeten rollen.

Dan kunnen we eindelijk er eentje kopen zonder al die belachelijke invoertaksen en wisselkoerstoestanden.

Ben benieuwd welk land het gaat halen de Gigafactory binnen te halen, mss daar waar men de vakbonden wat kan dimmen?

BMW investeert zelfs 1 miljard in Hongarije:
https://www.autogids.be/autonieuws/i...-debrecen.html

[Tavek]

Duitsland.

Saarland.

My best guess.

[Micele]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Tavek

Duitsland.

Saarland.

My best guess.

Lijkt me ook ergens logisch, D was altijd al favoriet voor Musk juist net omdat het D is.

[Micele]

ff bekomen, Tesla shorters zitten met 1,7 miljard verliespapers in hun short.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/te...lly-2018-08-02

Tesla short sellers are sitting on a paper loss of nearly $2 billion after stock rally

Published: Aug 2, 2018 4:59 p.m. ET

Tesla stock rallied 16% after earnings, hurting all those who were betting the stock was poised for a selloff

Musk twitterde een goede maand geleden,

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1012830881461907457
15:51 - 29 jun. 2018

Who likes short shorts?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...&v=xm3nxNF7j8U

The Royal Teens - Short Shorts (Saturday Night Beechnut Show - Feb 14, 1958)

Clickbaits...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...musk-7qzx5t922

April 8 2018, 12:01am,
The Sunday Times

Car biz is hell for Tesla boss Elon Musk

Despite half a million frustrated would-be Tesla Model 3 owners, investors have yet to lose faith in the visionary boss

[Micele]

Verhelderend samengevat via Seeking Alpha van iemand die long is op Tesla:
(op 8 blz, ik kort ze wat in...)

En de cijfers liegen niet...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/419...onference-call

Pale Blue Dot Research
Long only, research analyst, tech, carmakers

All The Reasons Tesla Stock Popped After The Q2 Conference Call

Aug. 3, 2018

Summary

- Tesla estimates average production rate for Q3 at 5K/wk.

- The company continues to guide for positive FCF and GAAP profitability in Q3 on increased Model 3 deliveries.

- It continues to guide no capital raises and that all future products will be self-funded.

Zoals de verkoopcijfers... tov de (ICE)concurrentie in die klasse, vooral de krachtige premiums van BMW, Audi, Mercedes in de middenklasse zien af

Introduction

The following is an analysis of the Q2 conference call. Specifically, bullish takeaways that I noted while listening to the call. The 16% gain on the day was due to multiple factors, which I will cover in some detail in this article.

Increasing Production rates

Musk reported that Tesla produced 5K/wk multiple times in July, which means it was not a sustained average but only burst rates, most likely extrapolated from individual daily rates.

He estimates a 5K/wk average for Q3, in line with the expected 6K/wk burst rate, which would make up the ground lost in July. The estimates of 50-55K for the quarter don't add up to a 5K/wk average but may be factoring in some downtime for improvements.

The current bottleneck keeping the company from a 5K/wk steady state is body production, which it estimates will be solved in 1-2 weeks. Tesla says it achieved a burst rate of 800 bodies made in 24 hours. The production rates are clearly making significant progress on a quarterly basis, and any deadline misses from internal guidelines are secondary to actual output and deliveries which will improve Tesla's bottom line for Q3

Surprising Sales and Demand

Model 3 US market share for the midsize luxury category surpassed all competitors combined. This was outlined in the shareholder newsletter but also mentioned again in the call. This means most cars sold in this category were Model 3s.



Tesla's head of sales says Model 3 trade-ins are also coming from non-mid-sized luxury owners. This means the addressable market for Model 3 is much larger than most people anticipated and not limited to luxury car buyers only. The company listed the top 5 vehicles that Model 3 buyers traded in between January and July: they were the Toyota Prius (NYSE:TM), BMW 3 Series (OTCPK:BMWYY), Honda Accord (NYSE:HMC), Honda Civic, and Nissan Leaf (OTCPK:NSANY). Tesla was especially surprised, since all but the BMW 3 Series are budget increases. Customers were trading up into a Model 3.

Nog enkele opmerkelijke alineas, vooral waar de (software)problemen lagen en nog liggen om hoger te gaan in productie, waarvan ook de autopilot-hardware deel van uitmaakt:

Troubleshooting

In response to an analyst’s question, Tesla clarified that it treats manufacturing problems as technology problems. Musk added that most production problems are software-related at volume.

The company blamed outsourced software development as the cause for the original issues in the battery pack assembly. These outsourced suppliers were supposed to be world-class experts but failed. Tesla rewrote the software to be more efficient and simpler.

Rapid iteration between design and production was key to unlocking bottlenecks. Tesla noted that its strategy is understanding the rate limiters of existing software. This allows the company to produce batteries that are lighter, better, cheaper, and with more range. It is estimating this to be active in about 6 months. The design engineers are working with automation and line engineers to improve production, which is allowing for better design for production.

The ability to problem-solve manufacturing as a technology problem keeps Tesla within its circle of competency and will lead to continuous production efficiencies and cost reductions.

Improved Autopilot With FSD Features

Tesla's Autopilot (AP) team reports radical advances in neural net development and FSD chip development, with an order of magnitude improvement in operations per second. The current Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) GPU the company is using is capable of 200fps, versus Tesla's proprietary chip which is capable of 2000fps with redundancy, at the same cost. This new V3 hardware will offer full frame rate, full resolution, and full NN processing with idle cycles to spare. It is also plug and play for the existing vehicle interface.

Autopilot V9 is the release that was mentioned for some time in August. Features include navigation integration with autonomous lane changes, GPS routes, and on-ramp and off-ramp capabilities. It will also add new safety features due to nuanced perception of the vision system.

One surprise was that Tesla revealed this system has been running in stealth mode for the last 2-3 years, and the company believes it is finally safety-validated for deployment. FSD features are being deployed in iterations of AP as safety features first. The company is forecasting coast-to-coast potentially by EOY, but AP V9 release is the focus. It is estimating this breakthrough release in about a month.

Factory Expansion

Tesla's first Gigafactory, GF1 which was estimated at $5 billion, was a huge learning lesson for the company in terms of cost efficiencies, and the planned factory for Shanghai, GF3, would be more than 50% cheaper at around $2 billion. This would add capacity of about 250K vehicles/year, including battery module and pack production. This cost does not include cell production, as it would most likely be covered by another partnership with Panasonic.

Tesla estimates that it will be able to announce the location of GF4 Europe before EOY. The company reiterated that no capital raise was necessary, and that it would most likely use local banks for financing.

Product Pipeline

In response to a question, Tesla said it has trimmed 2020 vehicle production estimates to between 700K and 800K. This includes 600K between Fremont and GF1 and 200K from Shanghai. It seems that being more realistic is looked on favorably by shareholders.

Plans for Model Y, Semi, Pickup, and Roadster were confirmed, but the company could not announce production locations.

When asked about Powerwall and Powerpack being such a small proportion of GF1 output, Tesla responded that the growth restrictor on those products is cell production. Panasonic recently just announced a 30% bump in output, which should help with this. Tesla Energy also relies on other cell suppliers like Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) and LG (OTC:LGEAF), which are supply-constrained now.

Tesla's additional cell capacity at GF1 will allow it to ramp energy storage 3x-4x in 2019.

The company is also ramping GF2 on solar and solar roof production. Tesla says there are several hundred homes with solar roofs. But it is still validating the longevity of the product, as well as ensuring first-responder training is enough to handle the incoming installations. This is probably why critics feel like solar roof is still vaporware.

The Energy division is constrained by a lack of certified electricians to install the systems. There aren't enough certified electricians to handle the current delivery load.

Tesla confirmed that Semi will be using Model 3 components, such as motors, handles, and screens, but declined to give away any more details other than more improvements have been made since the reveal back in the fall. This repurposing of Model 3 components reduces R&D costs on Semi and improves economies of scale on the lower-volume truck prototype.

The company reaffirmed that it expects energy and auto revenue will reach parity.

Conclusion

There was immense concern by critics that Tesla was going to need a capital raise to fund future projects, and also regarding Tesla's guidance for consistent quarterly profitability, and thus, annual profitability put this to rest. Musk's behavior was also a concern for critics, but the call took place in a civilized and professional manner. Gross margin improvements due to improving production efficiencies are paving the way for the full Tesla product pipeline to become a reality.

Ik heb de link volledig gelezen, en bepaalde uitleg is verrassend gedetailleerd uitgelegd, vooral de nieuwe band GA4 onder die tent. De moeite.

[Tavek]

Het aandeel houdt goed stand na de monsterrally gisteren.

Ideaal.

[Micele]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Micele

Ik ben niet meer verwonderd dat Duitse onderzoeksingenieurs enthousiast waren toen ze het model 3 (zelfs 12 exemplaren in Duitse handen) volledig uit mekaar haalden... en dit vooral bij de diverse electronische componenten en powertrain.

Volgens de geruchten via insiders zou Audi en Porsche grote problemen hebben met de kwaliteit en management van het batterijpack -95 kWh is idem- (en sowieso met de productie ervan) wie weet gaan ze nog eens 12 Teslas meer uit mekaar moeten schroeven en beter moeten copiëren.

Audi gaat wslk de marktinvoering nog eens met extra 3-6 maand uitstellen, imho. Kan goed zijn dat het tot 1 jaar vertraging oploopt.

Uit een ander forum:

Ondertussen modderen de Europese fabrikanten maar wat aan. Ze zetten fel in op het doodlopend spoor van plug-in hybrids en de EV's die ze aankondigen zijn dikwijls vaporware. Audi gaat binnenkort een volledige EV uitrollen, trouwens uit de fabriek in Vorst. Ik ken iemand die daar werkt en hij vertelde me dat ze gigantische problemen hebben met een aantal aspecten van de wagen (waaronder de batterij).

De Audi e tron quattro zou maar 400 km rijbereik halen met 95 kWh capaciteit en dat met de eerder realtief zwakke WTLP-test gemeten. Eigenlijk moeilijk te geloven.
Audi en Porsche zouden dezelfde accucellen van LG Chem hebben...

Dat is ondermaats vergeleken met de zwaardere Tesla S (539 km) of X (475 km) met ca. dezelfde capaciteit (100 kWh), bovendien zijn die km-waardes de strengere EPA-norm.

De **Nissan Leaf 40 kWh is ondertussen met WTLP gemeten en ook EPA, het verschil was 270-285 km WTLP naargelang versie en 243 km EPA (151 miles) US-versie. De WTLP is pakweg **13% minder zwaar (**bronnen hieronder)

Dat betekent dat die Audi met 95 kWh accupack een povere 348 km EPA-rijbereik haalt, zelfs een veel grotere Tesla X met 75 kWh doet beter met zelfs 383 km EPA.

https://pushevs.com/2018/01/11/2018-...-wltp-ratings/

https://electrek.co/2018/01/26/new-n...al-epa-rating/

The EPA range cycle actually came in 1 mile higher at 151 miles of combined highway and city driving.

However, Nissan didn’t manage to improve efficiency with the new generation.

Ik ga die kms nog eens dubbelchecken met andere media, want zo durven ze die Audi niet op de markt brengen...

[Tavek]

Als die 95 kWh e-tron van audi slechts 400 km WTLP heeft, is dat 320-340 km EPA.

De Model X 100 kWh heeft 475 km EPA
De 90 kWh 412 km.

Zo kunnen ze dat ding niet op de markt brengen. Met opties gaat dat ding even duur zijn als een X. Maar geen supercharging hebben, minder ver gaan, geen autopilot functies....en ze hebben dan nog eens inferieure batterijkwaliteit.

Pijnlijk moment voor de VAG group. Hun vlaggenschip EV is aan het falen ivg met de concurrentie.

Moest er geen grote reveal zijn geweest onlangs ? Is dat wel doorgegaan ?

[Tavek]

Ik blijf er bij, Tesla heeft 5-10 jaar voorsprong op de concurrentie die nog steeds knee deep in dieseltechnologie zit.

Over 10 jaar is Tesla even groot als Apple nu en zijn enkele klassieke autofabrikanten ofwel falliet, ofwel overgenomen, ofwel is er consolidatie geweest.

Wie koopt nog een audi of bmw als je bij Tesla een zelfrijdende, EV krijgt die verder kan, meer functies heeft, meer kwaliteit heeft (batterijlevenduur) en nog eens goed er uit ziet ?