Aandeel electrische wagens boven 2%, in China boven 4%

[Micele]

Van de nieuw ingeschreven wagens 2018 tov 2017.

Algemeen zakte de verkoop op de drie grootste wereldmarkten China, Europa en USA.

Alle begin is moeilijk, maar in China is door de milieumaatregelen het aandeel EV op 1 jaar bijna verdubbeld, van ~2% naar ~4% aandeel op het totaal.

Men schat dat China al dit jaar naar 7-8% gaat of opnieuw bijna een verdubbeling. In Europa en USA gaat het langzamer.

Schaal in miljoen personenwagens, aandeel EV daarvan: groen

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/16...ina-europe-us/



China, The World’s Largest Auto Market

In the world’s largest auto market, China, total light duty vehicle (LDV) sales declined in 2018 relative to 2017. This was the first year-on-year drop since 1992. Yet, in this shrinking overall auto market, EV sales (including BEVs and PHEVs) almost doubled in volume to 1.1 million, from 600,000 in 2017.

We can very likely expect China’s EV sales volume to again almost double in 2019, and approach 2 million units. Depending on what happens to combustion vehicle sales, EVs will likely take at least 7–8% market share. It’s very easy to steal market share when your nemesis is declining in absolute terms.

According to China’s Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), total LDV sales in 2018 were down to 28.08 million from 28.88 million in 2017, a drop of 800,000 units, or 2.76%. However, since EV sales increased by some 500,000 units year on year, we can conclude that fossil fuelled LDV sales fell by 1.3 million units, down an even more significant 4.6%.

Chinese middle-class consumers (the buyers of most LDVs) are tech-savvy and will drive a further shift away from gas cars to EVs in every year ahead. China’s strong national “new energy vehicle” policy, combined with very aggressive policies at the city and regional levels, will ensure things move in the right direction. If there’s an unexpected uptick in the general economic outlook in China in 2019, there’s an outside possibility that combustion vehicle sales may show signs of hanging on to recent highs. But, essentially, the downward trajectory in their absolute sales in pretty much each consecutive year from now on is a safe bet.

My personal prediction is that EV LDV sales in China will reach at least 50% of market share by 2025, via a combination of positive feedback factors. I’ll elaborate on this more fully in an article coming soon.

Europe, The World’s 2nd-Largest Auto Market

The European auto manufacturers’ association reports a very similar picture (here we are counting the EU plus the European Free Trade Area). Although total LDV sales very slightly increased in 2018 (17.75 million) over 2017 (17.68 million), more than 100% of that increase was from EVs, which had 408,000 sales in 2018, up from 307,000 in 2017 (figures from EV Volumes).

Stated differently, combustion LDV sales decreased from 17.37 million in 2017 to 17.34 million in 2018.

With the 2019 arrival of Tesla’s Model 3 in Europe (that’s just started this past week), other brands still trying to stay in the EV race, and new PHEVs arriving later in the year with much higher all-electric range, EV sales will grow even more strongly in 2019, likely to approaching 600,000 units. It’s almost inevitable that combustion vehicle sales will decline further still.

USA, The World’s 3rd-Largest Auto Market

Total sales of light vehicles in the USA in 2017 were 17.230 million, and increased fractionally in 2018 to 17.274 million (figures from marklines). EV Volumes estimates 360,000 EV sales in 2018, up from 200,000 in 2017. That means that — taken on their own — combustion vehicle sales fell from 17.03 million in 2017 to 16.91 million in 2018.

Since USA total light vehicle sales have been essentially flat or slightly declining over the past four years, and EVs are now coming online in ever-increasing volumes, it’s hard to see gas vehicle sales going in any direction but south from now on. The total light vehicle market’s marginal growth in 2018 was only made possible by the arrival of the Tesla Model 3 in high volumes.

Men kan stellen dat verbrandingsmotoren over hun hoogtepunt heen zijn.

[patrickve]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Micele

Men kan stellen dat verbrandingsmotoren over hun hoogtepunt heen zijn.

Ik ga dus mijn heel oude ICE nog wat houden, het zou idioot zijn om een nieuwe te kopen als 5 jaar later, het al EV is dat de klok slaat.

[Micele]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door patrickve

Ik ga dus mijn heel oude ICE nog wat houden, het zou idioot zijn om een nieuwe te kopen als 5 jaar later, het al EV is dat de klok slaat.

Dat zullen de meesten doen. Zeker diegene die nog niet zo oud zijn dat ze het niet meer gaan meemaken.

[Boduo]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Micele

Van de nieuw ingeschreven wagens 2018 tov 2017.

Algemeen zakte de verkoop op de drie grootste wereldmarkten China, Europa en USA.

Alle begin is moeilijk, maar in China is door de milieumaatregelen het aandeel EV op 1 jaar bijna verdubbeld, van ~2% naar ~4% aandeel op het totaal.

Men schat dat China al dit jaar naar 7-8% gaat of opnieuw bijna een verdubbeling. In Europa en USA gaat het langzamer.

Schaal in miljoen personenwagens, aandeel EV daarvan: groen

In Europa versnelt het : o.a.in Zeebrugge komen wekelijks 3.000 Tesla's Model 3 aan.
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