Open Europe : persoverzicht

[Politics.be]

Czech Republic stays out of fiscal treaty, but remains open to future accession;France’s ratification hostage to outcome of presidential electionsThe new European fiscal treaty on budgetary discipline will be signed by 25 EU member states, after the Czech Republic decided to stay out citing “constitutional reasons”. However, speaking to the press after the summit, Czech Prime Minister Petr Necas hinted that his country could possibly join at a later stage.

Italian daily Il Corriere della Sera reports that Poland joined the fiscal treaty after it was agreed that eurozone summits would be increased to at least three a year, with non-euro countries being invited to one of them. Gazeta Wyborcza reports that Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk admitted that he was not fully satisfied with the compromise reached, and added that at times the discussion between him and French President Nicolas Sarkozy had been “pretty brutal”.

David Cameron is likely to face criticism from Conservative backbench MPs when he delivers his statement on the EU summit to the House of Commons this afternoon. The Prime Minister decided not to challenge the use of the EU institutions under the fiscal treaty, although he told reporters, “There are a number of legal concerns about this treaty. That’s why I reserved the UK position on it. We will only take action if our national interests are threatened. We will be watching like a hawk.”

On his Telegraph blog, Open Europe’s Director Mats Persson argues, “Cameron is best off holding his fire but while making clear that if there is the slightest sign of this new deal starting to affect single market issues, the eurozone will have a long, messy court case on its hands. Short of those who want to see the UK leave the EU altogether (as losing such a case would force the UK much closer to the exit), this is something that everyone wants to avoid”, meaning that Cameron still has some leverage over the eurozone.Mats appeared on BBC News yesterday, discussing the EU summit, and was also quoted by USA Today and Polish daily Rzeczpospolita. Raoul Ruparel appeared on BBC Radio 5 this morning. Open Europe’s analysis of the fifth draft of the fiscal treaty was cited by the Telegraph and Guardian’s live blogs.

Nicolas Sarkozy told the press yesterday that France will not be able to ratify the fiscal treaty before the presidential elections, scheduled for the end of April. Socialist presidential candidate François Hollande has repeatedly said that, if elected, he would seek to renegotiate the agreement. Separately, the Irish Times reports that the Irish government will seek legal advice from Attorney General Máire Whelan on whether a referendum is required to ratify the fiscal treaty.
Open Europe blog Telegraph blogs: Persson USA Today Telegraph: Live blog Guardian: Live blog EUobserver FT CityAM WSJ Il Sole 24 Ore El Pa�*s Times Süddeutsche FAZ FAZ 2 Süddeutsche Welt Bild Corriere della Sera La Stampa AFP CityAM 2 Telegraph Guardian Independent Sun Express Reuters Irish Times Irish Times 2 Irish Times 3 FT: Beattie WSJ: Walker FT: Stephens Libération Rzeczpospolita FTD Prague Daily Monitor Gazeta Wyborcza Rzeczpospolita Wprost24

Wales Online reports that the devolved Welsh Labour Government has rejected former Labour Home and Foreign Secretary Jack Straw’s calls for regional policy and spending to be devolved back to the UK, arguing that Wales could lose out under a UK-wide distribution of regional funds. The article quotes Open Europe’s recent report estimating that such a move could save the UK £4.2bn over seven years.
Open Europe research Wales Online

Next ECB long term lending operation could reach €1 trillion;
Borrowing costs skyrocket as markets begin to question Portugal’s debt sustainability
The FT reports that many of the eurozone’s largest banks could double or triple their demand for liquidity at the ECB’s next Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) on the 29 February. The fact that the stigma has been removed from requesting large amounts of liquidity from the ECB means that the number of banks accessing the LTRO may also increase. This could push the total size of the next LTRO to €1 trillion, although the average expectation is still only €325bn, according to Reuters.

FTD reports that eurozone leaders have been discussing the creation of a €1.5trillion bailout fund through a combination of the EFSF and the ESM, the eurozone’s temporary and permanent bailout funds, along with a large increase in IMF funding. Die Welt reports that the awaited ruling of the German Constitutional Court on the constitutional compatibility of the Bundestag’s nine-man special EFSF committee has again be postponed, and will now be due later on in the spring.

Meanwhile, Portugal’s borrowing costs continued to skyrocket yesterday reaching record highs, despite other eurozone countries’ borrowing costs being lowered by the impact of the ECB’s liquidity and the fact that Portugal has stuck to its privatisation and deficit cutting targets. Markets look increasingly worried about the length and depth of the recession which Portugal is facing. The front page of Die Welt reports that it is unlikely Portugal will be able to return to the markets in mid-2013 as scheduled.

The WSJ reports that a deal on the Greek restructuring could be completed this week, after the IMF has completed a new debt sustainability analysis of Greece. Although it is possible that the analysis could highlight a continuing budget gap for Greece which would raise the pressure to increase the size of the second bailout or force the ECB to accept write downs on its holdings of Greek debt.

At yesterday’s EU summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy played down the prospect of Greece giving up any of its fiscal sovereignty to the eurozone. Separately, the largest Greek bank merger in history was put on hold yesterday after Alpha Bank said it had to judge the impact of the Greek restructuring plan before it could merge with EFG Eurobank. Houlihan Lokey, the firm advising Greece on its privatisation programme, has said the country will even struggle to meet the delayed target of selling €50bn in assets by 2017. Les Echos reports that France has revised its growth forecast for this year to 0.5% of GDP – down from 1%.
FT CityAM FT 2 WSJ IHT Times Telegraph EUobserver Welt Süddeutsche Irish Times WSJ 2 EUobserver Bloomberg FT 3 CityAM 2 Guardian Les Echos Les Echos 2 Guardian 2 CityAM 3 Les Echos 3 Le Figaro Irish Times 2 FT: Rachman WSJ Heard on the Street FT: Jenkins FT Editorial FT: Lannoo Times: Leader Süddeutsche: Gammelin Welt Handelsblatt FTD Reuters Reuters 2 ZeroHedge Handelsblatt: Polleit Welt

The Times notes that the deadline for entrants to the Wolfson economic prize closes today, with £250,000 on offer to whoever can come up with the most plausible way for a member state to exit the eurozone.
Times Times: Kamm Times: Fleming

Following Nicolas Sarkozy’s announcement that France will unilaterally introduce a financial transactions tax, David Cameron remarked, “If France goes for a financial transactions tax, then the door will be open and we will be able to welcome many French banks to the United Kingdom and we'll expand our economy that way.”
Telegraph Mail Mail 2 Le Monde Libération

The Guardian reveals that François Hollande, the Socialist candidate to the French presidential elections, is planning to visit the City in a bid to silence accusations that he aims to undermine London’s financial district.
Guardian

FAZ reports that the total cost of the new ‘House of European history’ to be built in Brussels could top €56m.
FAZ

The IHT notes that the Costa Concordia cruise disaster earlier this month has provided new impetus for the adoption of EU rules on ship pollution, which are currently being discussed by the European Parliament.
IHT
World

EUobserver reports that EU leaders have urged the UN Security Council to back an Arab League plan to end Bashar el-Assad’s ruling in Syria.
EUobserver Bloomberg

Bron: politics.be