Political Violence Contagion: LLOYD'S waarschuwt voor pandemie van politiek geweld

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Emerging Risk Report – 2016


Een verzekeraar moet een beetje in de toekomst kunnen kijken om alzo mogelijke risico's juist in te kunnen schatten. Daar hebben ze instrumenten voor, zoals studies rondom 'PV contagion'.

In volgende (risk) rapport beschrijft LLOYD'S drie mogelijke vormen van pandemie en stellen ze een snelle stijging van de kans op wereldwijd politiek geweld vast.

LLOYD'S stelt vast dat grote conflicten gemakkelijk kunnen overspringen naar andere locaties op aarde. De 'besmetting' zou niet volledig rationeel gebeuren, eerder onvoorspelbare menslijke reacties blijken belangrijke factoren te zijn, instinct.

Super-strain pandemic type Description

• A Anti-imperialist, independence movements, removing occupying force
  
• B Mass pro-reform protests against national government
  
• C Armed insurrection, insurgency, secessionist, may involve ideology (e.g. Marxism, Islamism)

Voorbeelden van factoren die LLOYD'S in rekening brengt:

Contagion process element

Reasoning Indicator examples (quantitative and qualitative)

Origin

Origin profiles the country that is hosting the conflict, and the ostensible source of spreading conflict. This enables commonalties to be drawn with other countries to identify any that may be particularly susceptible to contagion, as well as connections and interdependencies.

• Political system
• Ethnic make up
• Languages of country
• Urbanisation
• Media freedom
• Age of government
• Nature of conflict
• Motives or ideology of opposition movement in conflict


Transmission

Pathways that enable conflicts to spread by contagion (emulation, imitation, transfer of tactics and ideas) rather than force. These are the means of knowledge transfer and information transmission between host (or origin) country and receiver country.
Transmission includes not only the ability to send and receive information, but also to learn, observe and understand events and be influenced and take action. Common languages as well as historical, cultural, ethnic, social, religious and political references can enhance transmission.
Greater volumes of combined factors of transmission point to greater speed and volume of knowledge transfer, and so greater potential for contagion, in greater speed and across greater range (e.g. mass transfer may result in mass unrest; clandestine transfer may result in clandestine actions such as terrorism).


• Access to media
• Censorship and media freedoms
• Internet penetration
• Social media usage
• Smart phone and personal computer ownership
• Satellite television penetration
• Common languages
• Literacy in host and receiver countries
• Geographic proximity
• Common histories and cultural, political and social references or contexts between Origin and receiver




Susceptibility

The susceptibility of a country to conflict contagion from conflict in another country.
Susceptibility to conflict contagion refers to underlying vulnerabilities but also to particular sensitivities to PV events in other particular countries, not in general. Like transmission, commonalties are important.
Susceptibility indicators are therefore crossreferenced to origin indicators, as greater weighting of commonalties may indicate greater risk.

• Political system - autocratic regimes at greater risk
• Civil society
• History of conflict
• Socio economic indicators, such as unemployment, urbanisation, urban density, average age
• The existence of pre-existing opposition movements
• Corruption
• Presence of activism and opposition movements





Resilience

The capacity and ability of a state to limit the impact of contagion and to recover.
• Defence and security spending
• Fiscal reserves
• Ability of government to adapt or respond to demands (political system, social contract)
• Infrastructure

Linkje naar het rapport:

http://www.lloyds.com/~/media/files/...0contagion.pdf

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Rapport van Sandler Research

The analysts forecast the global riot control system market to grow at a CAGR of 5.3% during the period 2016-2020. According to the report, demand for small UAVs in law enforcement is driving the market growth. UAVs are equipped with a broad range of systems such as airframe, autopilot, navigation system, sensor package, and communications links. There is an increased demand for UAVs globally, owing to its wide range of applications in the civil, commercial, and military market.

Law enforcement agencies around the world are the biggest market for riot control systems. This market is expected to generate revenues of over USD 3.5 billion by the end of 2020. Countries such as the US, Iran, Egypt, Russia, China, and Thailand have started procuring riot control equipment and are investing heavily in NWLs. Moreover, special vehicles that are equipped with water cannon and reservoirs have been designed for security personnel, for use in areas of conflict to handle large crowds and demonstration. Demand for such equipment is expected to rise during the next few years

The largest region for riot control systems is the Americas, and forecasted growth of this region is a CAGR of just over 4%. In North America, the prominent markets are Canada and the US and the law enforcement agencies in these nations are best equipped with the upgraded weapons. The militarization of the police department and other law enforcement agencies in the Americas has encouraged the use of advanced riot control equipment. The disputed circumstances of shooting unarmed 18-year-old heightened existing protests and civil unrest in Ferguson, Missouri, US in 2014. Rifles, NWLs, and heavy vehicles were used to control the crowd and growing protests during this incident.

http://www.newsmaker.com.au/news/499...t#.Vxe4VvkrKUk