DE GROTE EURO ZONE CRISIS : The Endgame

[Boa]

"De crisis is voorbij. Vanaf nu zal het alleen maar beter worden."

EU-president Herman van Rompuy

http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/3424/econom...-voorbij.dhtml

[Carnivore]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Boa

"De crisis is voorbij. Vanaf nu zal het alleen maar beter worden."

EU-president Herman van Rompuy

http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/3424/econom...-voorbij.dhtml

LOL
�*lles om 't nog even rustig te houden.

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Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door patrickve

Had dit artikel niet gelezen. Nagel op de kop. Was waar ik ook naar hintte. Maar je ziet wel dat het werkt he: kijk naar sommige reacties hier "hoe empatisch"

Zo zie je maar. De politieke elite, Eurofielen en hun fervente aanhangers deinzen voor niets terug. Dit alles ten koste van de zuurverdiende levensstandaard van de gemiddelde Europese burger.

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Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Boa

"De crisis is voorbij. Vanaf nu zal het alleen maar beter worden."

EU-president Herman van Rompuy

http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/3424/econom...-voorbij.dhtml

De vaste voorzitter van de raad van regeringsleiders van de Europese Unie geeft toe dat hij wel eens twijfelde of de euro wel gered kon worden. "Er zijn momenten geweest waarop we allemaal bang waren. Zeker in het najaar van 2011 moest ik mijn best doen om in een goede afloop van de crisis te geloven", aldus de ex-premier.

Dus hij geeft toe dat hij en Co. gelogen hebben en dat hij nu de smaak te pakken heeft, want nu liegt hij gewoon verder. Griekenland is per definitie failliet en de gevolgen van het ontkennen van dit feit zullen voor de EU op zeer korte tijd negatief of zelfs nefast zijn.

Blijkbaar krijgen de meeste mensen het uiteindelijk in de smiezen.
De HLN poll : 23 % vinden het grappig, 69% deprimerend en 3% ergerlijk. (totaal 95% die er dus niets van geloven)

Lees ook even de commentaren op het artikel, die zijn ronduit 100% van negatieve aard.

Mss wil hij zeggen dat het dieptepunt van de crisis nu voorbij is en dat we nu naar het hoogtepunt ervan gaan.

Nog, uit De Tijd:

Van Rompuy heeft niet wakker gelegen van de crisis. En dat hij enkel in Nederland en niet in België doorgaat voor ‘bevlogen politicus’ deert hem niet. ‘De eurozone bijeenhouden, daar zal ik op afgerekend worden, niet op het feit of ik charisma heb.’

Zeker in het najaar van 2011 moest ik mijn best doen om in de goede afloop te geloven

Voor Van Rompuy blijft het zonneklaar dat er verder moet worden gesaneerd.

Ook de reacties op het artikel in De Tijd zijn ronduit negatief.
http://www.tijd.be/reactie/9168091-3149-0

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Bloomberg - Iceland Will Adopt Euro or Other Currency, Prime Minister Says

Iceland will either adopt the euro after joining the European Union or drop the krona and unilaterally adopt another currency as “the situation can’t remain unchanged,” said Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir.

“The choice is between surrendering the sovereignty of Iceland in monetary policy by unilaterally adopting the currency of another country or become a member of the EU,” Sigurdardottir said in a speech delivered at a Social Democrat Alliance party convention today in Reykjavik, the capital. EU membership will allow Iceland to “cooperate with EU countries as a sovereign nation, which has a say in the decision and policy making in all fields of cooperation.”

Iceland started EU-entry talks in July 2010 and will probably vote on accession in early 2013. Of a total of 35 negotiating chapters for EU accession, Iceland has opened 11 and completed eight, the EU said in December. The primary challenges facing the talks relate to agriculture, the environment and fisheries, according to EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fule.

A Capacent Gallup poll last month showed that about a quarter of the island’s voters support joining the bloc, or 26.3 percent, while 56.2 percent oppose EU membership.

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Antonis Samaras, voorzitter van de Griekse partij New Democracy (ND) wil vervroegde verkiezingen.
De geplande austeriteit is moeilijk uitvoerbaar...

Greek opposition leader attacks debt deal and hints at early election

Het IMF heeft geen vertrouwen in de Griekse situatie en wil risico's beperken. Ze schroeven hun hulp aan Griekenland drastisch terug.

Tja, wat kan men verwachten van een failliet land...

Bloomberg - IMF Scales Back Aid to Greece in Nation’s 2nd Rescue Package

[D'ARTOIS]

Trol Van Rompuy staat en valt met zijn kenmerkende belachelijke en grotendeels onware uitspraken.

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Duitsland wil geen vervroegde verkiezingen in Griekenland.

Indien Duitsland het wenst kunnen ze vlot de E.U. verlaten.

ZEROHEDGE - The Black Swan NO ONE is Talking about: Germany’s “Plan B”

While the Second Greek Bailout may or may not be complete (depending on whether we get a credit event as a result of it), Germany can and will walk from the Euro if it needs to. This is the unforeseen black swan everyone is ignoring.

Obviously, Germany wouldn’t want to do this as it would result in Germany being blamed for the Euro failing. So thus far, “Plan A” for Germany has been to offer bailout funds that are contingent on requirements so unpalatable that Greece or any other PIIG would likely end up preferring to walk rather than submit to them.

Case in point, before the second Greek Bailout German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble proposed that Greece should postpone its April elections as part of the bailout package.


In simple terms, Schäuble is concerned that the unpopularity of the austerity measures being imposed on Greece as part of the second bailout package would lead to a “wrong” democratic choice.

Let that last paragraph sink in for a moment; it’s so outlandish it’s hard to even comprehend. Imagine if a Chinese official suggested the US put off its elections otherwise China would dump US Treasuries en masse and you’ll see what I mean.

Understand, Schäuble is no idiot. He knows that there is no way Greece would go for this. So his comment can only be seen as an attempt to incite a Greek backlash while also winning political points in Germany.

Indeed, those who show themselves willing to play hardball with Greece have seen a huge boost in the polls (Merkel recently saw her approval ratings hit their highest levels since her re-election by doing this). Schäuble is obviously taking a page from her playbook here.

...

Put another way, German leaders, particularly Merkel and Schäuble see the writing on the political wall: that both Greece and France are likely going to find themselves with new leadership that is pro-socialism, anti-austerity measures, and most certainly anti-taking orders from Germany.


Thus, Germany must be aware (as the EU, IMF, and ECB are to some degree) that it is ultimately fighting a losing battle by participating in the bailouts. Indeed, Schäuble has even gone so far as to recently call Greece a “bottomless pit” where money is wasted (having just participated in Greek bailouts that exceed the entirety of Greece’s GDP, he does have a point here).

Schäuble’s statements have not passed unnoticed by the Greeks. Greek politicians have regularly brought up Germany’s lack of war reparations to Greece post-WWII while the Greek media has begun regularly portraying Schäuble and Angela Merkel as Nazis.

So while a “deal” may have officially been struck for Greece, there are deep underlying tensions that could bring the EU to a crashing halt at any point.


Big picture, we must remember that Greece is just the opening act for what’s to come in Europe: Italy and Spain are waiting in the wings to take center stage as soon as the Greece bailout deal is finalized (if this happens… which remains to be seen).

Having seen how ineffective the whole “hand over fiscal sovereignty in exchange for more, cheaper debt/ bailouts” deals have been for Greece, Spain’s already told the EU to “shove” its budgetary requirements. This kind of political tension will be growing between EU members in the coming months as Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy all start showing their hands at the EU poker table.

Germany is aware of this, as well as the fact that there is no way German voters will go for bailouts of any more of the PIIGS (even if Germany, the IMF, and ECB had the funds to bail out Spain or Italy… which they don’t). This is why Germany has decided to play hardball with Greece. It’s also why Germany has put into place a contingency plan that would permit it to leave the Euro if it had to.


What is Germany’s “Plan B”? Leave the Euro but remain in the EU (maybe).


If you don’t believe me, consider that in the last six months Germany has:


Passed legislation that would permit Germany to leave the Euro but remain a part of the EU
Reinstated its Special Financial Market Stabilization Funds, (or SoFFin for short)


It is the second of these items (the reinstatement of the SoFFIN) that the western media and 99% of investors have missed entirely. In short, Germany has given the SoFFIN:

€400 billion to be used as guarantees for German banks.
€80 billion to be used for the recapitalization of German banks
Legislation that would permit German banks to dump their euro-zone government bonds if needed.

That is correct. Any German bank, if it so chooses, will have the option to dump its EU sovereign bonds into the SoFFIN during a Crisis.

In simple terms, Germany has put a €480 billion firewall around its banks. It can literally pull out of the Euro any time it wants to. The question is whether its current EU power grab is successful. If it isn’t… and other EU nations refuse to play ball (like Spain has started to) then Germany could very easily leave the Euro.

This is the black swan no one is talking about. If Germany bails on the Euro, the EU will collapse. It will be Lehman Brothers times 10 if not worse.


I recently published a report showing investors how to prepare for this. It’s called Surviving a Crisis Four Times Worse Than 2008 and it’s chock full of information on how to not only survive but thrive during if this particular black swan (or any of the others lurking in the system) comes to pass.

...

[zonbron]

Ivm vorig artikel.

The Economic Collapse - Is Germany Actually Preparing To Leave The Euro?

For a long time, most analysts have believed that if someone was going to leave the euro, it would be a weak nation such as Greece or Portugal. But the truth is that financially troubled nations such as Greece and Portugal don't want to leave the euro. The leaders of those nations understand that if they leave the euro their economies will totally collapse and nobody will be there to bail them out. And at this point there really is not a formal mechanism which would enable other members of the eurozone to kick financially troubled nations such as Greece or Portugal out of the euro.



But there is one possibility that is becoming increasingly likely that could actually cause the break up of the euro. Germany could leave the euro. Yes, it might actually happen. Germany is faced with a very difficult problem right now. It is looking at a future where it will be essentially forced to bail out most of the rest of the nations in the eurozone for many years to come, and those bailouts will be extremely expensive. Meanwhile, the mood in much of the rest of Europe is becoming decidedly anti-German. In Greece, Angela Merkel and the German government are being openly portrayed as Nazis. Financially troubled nations such as Greece want German bailout money, but they are getting sick and tired of the requirements that Germany is imposing upon them in order to get that money. Increasingly, other nations in Europe are simply ignoring what Germany is asking them to do or are openly defying Germany. In the end, Germany will need to decide whether it is worth it to continue to pour billions upon billions of euros into countries that don't appreciate it and that are not doing what Germany has asked them to do.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party recently approved a resolution that would allow a country to leave the euro without leaving the European Union.

Many thought that the resolution was aimed at countries like Greece or Portugal, but the truth is that this resolution may be setting the stage for a German exit from the euro.

The following is an excerpt from that resolution....

So was that paragraph written for Greece?

Or was it written for Germany?

That is a very interesting question.

What is clear is that the status quo cannot last much longer.



Meer...

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Zoals verwacht, de rechtzaken tegen banken en de Griekse staat beginnen...

ZEROHEDGE - The Greek PSI Lawsuits Begin

You didn't think investors would voluntarily give up on the potential to generate returns between 50% and 333% now did you following the 'coercively voluntary' (aka Schrodinger Spanish Inquisition) Greek debt exchange? Because here they come. Reuters reports that a Hamburg law firm representing 110 Greek bond holders have formed a class action group and intend to sue banks and the Greek state following the Greek swap. It is unclear yet if there are any hedge funds participating in the group, or if these are the entities represented by Bingham. Most likely not: those will almost certainly seek non-class action status so as not to dilute the legal effort, if not fees. However, now that the precedent is set, look for the onslaught of lawsuits to start in earnest. What is probably quite important is that European taxpayers will now be delighted to know they are paying the Troika lawyers' $1000/hour legal fees (and uncapped expenses).

From Reuters:

Lawyers in Germany representing 110 Greek bond holders said on Monday they have formed a class action group and intend to sue banks and the Greek state following last week's Greek bond swap, which slashed more than 100 billion euros from Athens' debt.



The Hamburg legal firm said most of the investors had spent 100,000-500,000 euros on Greek paper, although the highest investment reached 3 million euros.



It did not name any of the banks it might targett.



The suit, likely to be filed in Washington, will claim banks failed to properly advise clients about the risks of Greek paper and seek compensation.



Separately, lawyers will argue that Greece, in orchestrating a debt swap, infringed against a German-Greek investment treaty intended to protect German investors from political risk.



Lawyer Matthias Groepper of legal firm Groepper Koepke said those who had agreed to the terms of the debt swap would be unable to claim compensation.



This would prevent any suit derailing the overall deal.

And here is the official google translated statement from the law firm:

The State shall be liable - Investors are preparing lawsuits lawyers. Groepper KÖPKE has established an interest group for victims. More by lawyer Matthias Gröpper.

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Raar maar waar, het failliete Griekenland krijgt zelfs niet de titel gedeeltelijk bankroet opgeplakt.

Integendeel, de kredietrating van dit land wordt opgetrokken naar een tot een B-. Tot zover kredietbeoordeelaar Fitch.

Fitch verhoogt rating Griekenland tot B-

Er is leven na de dood !

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Juist na de beslissing van Fitch de kredietbeoordeling van Griekenland te verhogen werd de failliete staat gered dmv het goedkeuren van het 2de bailoutpakket.

EU: Griekenland krijgt 130 miljard euro voor 3 jaar

Goed nieuws voor de banken. Goed nieuws voor de Griek ?

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Het gaat goed met Italie.

Italiaanse staatsschuld bereikt nieuw record
De Italiaanse staatsschuld is in januari gestegen tot 1.936 miljard euro, een nieuw record, meldt de Italiaanse centrale bank Banca d'Italia.

Eind vorig jaar lag de overheidsschuld nog net onder 1.900 miljard euro. De Banca d'Italia verwijst naar seizoensgebonden factoren, hogere rentes en de storting van de Italiaanse participatie aan het Europese noodfonds.

Het vorige record dateert van juli 2011. Het lag op 1.912 miljard euro.
Italië heeft na Griekenland de hoogste staatsschuld van de eurozone

...

Slecht nieuws voor de technocratenduo Monti/Draghi ? Of is het eigenlijk goed nieuws voor hun ? Wat meer kan men verwachten van de Italiaanse Goldman Sachs regering...

Misschien kunnen ze nadien in Drakenbergs Park regeren.


Monti dei Draghi (Drakensberg)


Nog voor de liefhebbers:


Spadaro: «Draghi, Monti,
Van Rompuy: gesuiti al comando»

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Duitsland mag nog wat 'extra cash' ophoesten, zodat de PIIGS-landen braadworst en andere Duitse producten kunnen blijven importeren. De economie moet blijven draaien, maar dat heeft zo zijn prijs.

Zero Hedge - Dear Germans: Bring Out Ze Checkbooks

Something funny happened on the road to a "fixed" Europe.

A week ago we presented the €2.5 trillion closed liquidity loop at the heart of Europe's (solvency and mercantilist) problems: the cumulative capital account deficits of Europe's import countries (virtually all of them except for Germany and Holland), and the under the table funding mechanism, in the form of Germany's subsidizing of said countries via the ECB TARGET2 cash settlement process. In simple terms, in order for the PIIGS to import German "stuff", Germany had to fund their economies in a very roundabout, yet unmistakable fashion (see chart). Well, as the latest update from TARGET2 shows (courtesy of Sean Corrigan of Diapason), the fact that this now accepted enabling mode of existence continues, as nothing has changed in Europe except for Greece going bankrupt, and all the PIIGS still pretending they have fixed their economies when in reality all that has happened is a $1.3 trillion cash injection providing some very brief dry powder to drive bonds to lower yields temporarily, Spain and Greece have just posted their biggest draw on TARGET2 bringing the total to just under €400 billion! Congratulations Germany - This is the amount that Jens Weidmann and the German Bundesbank will have to fund to keep the ponzi going.

...

To all our German readers: sorry. Yes, extend and pretend actually has a price.

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[D'ARTOIS]

Vandaag was er een melding van de ECB dat er geen geld voorhanden was voor economische steun aan de individuele lidmaten. Het is nu ieder land voor zich om z' n eigen econimie te boosten, voor Brussel/ECB is dat alreeds een gepasseerd station.

Ik las dit in Nu.nl

Wat de EU met Griekenland wil is dat de banken akkoord gaan met 47% van het geinvesteerde geld - over de rente en rente over rente wordt nergens gesproken.

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De grootse Griekse leugen, Spanje (en Italie) doorziet ze. Wie volgt ?

Zero Hedge - The Big Fat Greek Lie Is Now Obvious to Spain... So Who's Next to Default?

The big fat Greek lie being spread throughout the financial community is that Greece has been saved.

It’s a lie for the following reasons:

Greece did in fact default
- Greece now has more debt than it did before the bailout (how does writing off €100 billion Euros in debt and taking on €130 billion Euros in more debt improve this situation?)
- The Greek economy continues to implode (youth unemployment over 50%, one in ten Greek youth looking for jobs abroad, Greek GDP fell 7% in 4Q11)
- This Second Bailout was indeed a “Credit event” which the markets have yet to discount (though German investors are already lining up litigation)
- Germany’s finance minister has already admitted Greece may need a third bailout.

Anyone who thinks that Greece is better off, let alone “saved” is out of their minds. The Euro may have been saved for a few more weeks/ months. But Greece is in worse shape than ever.

Indeed, if anything, the Greek situation has made it clear that the whole “give up fiscal sovereignty and implement austerity measures in exchange for bailouts” formula is a waste of time and money. Let’s take a look at the progression here.

Greece claims it doesn’t need a bailout at all (January 2010-March 2010)
Greece begins to ask for a bailout (April-May 2010)
Greece gets a bailout equal to 57% of its GDP (May 2010)
Greece posts a GDP of -4% in 2010
Greece announces it won’t be able to meet budget requirements/ payback the first bailout on time and asks for an extension (January-February 2011)
Greece asks for another extension (May 2011)
Talk of Second Greek Bailout begins (July –October 2011)
Greece posts a GDP of -6.5% in 2011
Second Greek bailout announced/ finalized (February/March 2012)
Talk of third Greek bailout begins (March 2012)

No other EU country could look at this progression and think “this looks like a good approach.” Indeed, Spain and Italy must be watching what’s happening in Greece and asking themselves whether they want to go through this whole process of negotiating for bailouts via austerity measures.


Both countries have already had a small sampling of the austerity measure medicine. Spain recently implemented a meager 19€ billion in austerity measures while Italy passed 30€ billion in austerity measures in 2011… hardly a drop out of their respective 1.06€ trillion and 1.5€ trillion economies.


Yet, even these tiny moves resulted in protests and riots. One can only imagine what Spanish and Italian politicians are thinking as they witness the widespread civil unrest, country-wide strikes, and economic depression that have occurred in Greece as a result of that country’s full commitment to the EU’s austerity measure demands.

Spain’s official Debt to GDP is only 64%, but its private sector debt is at an astounding 227% of GDP. And the Spanish banking system is leveraged at 19 to 1 (worse than Greece).

Moreover, the country is already experiencing an economic Crisis with an unemployment rate of 20+% and an economy that has been contracting since mid-2011 (in fact Spain’s GDP just actually went negative in the first quarter of 2012)…

Indeed, Spain’s recent efforts to tell the EU to “shove it” have put a crack in the Eurogroup power over individual EU members that can quickly widen.

Spain's sovereign thunderclap and the end of Merkel's Europe

As many readers will already have seen, Premier Mariano Rajoy has refused point blank to comply with the austerity demands of the European Commission and the European Council (hijacked by Merkozy).


Taking what he called a "sovereign decision", he simply announced that he intends to ignore the EU deficit target of 4.4pc of GDP for this year, setting his own target of 5.8pc instead (down from 8.5pc in 2011).

In the twenty years or so that I have been following EU affairs closely, I cannot remember such a bold and open act of defiance by any state. Usually such matters are fudged. Countries stretch the line, but do not actually cross it.

With condign symbolism, Mr Rajoy dropped his bombshell in Brussels after the EU summit, without first notifying the commission or fellow EU leaders. Indeed, he seemed to relish the fact that he was tearing up the rule book and disavowing the whole EU machinery of budgetary control.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...erkels-europe/


The EU rejected this (of course) and Spain has since agreed to meet softer budgetary requirements. But it’s clear that a shift has begun in how EU members will deal with the Eurogroup as a whole.

So… we must consider that it is highly likely the option of simply defaulting is being discussed at the highest levels of the Spanish and Italian government. Should either country decide that austerity measures don’t work and it’s simply easier to opt for a default, then we are heading into a Crisis that will make 2008 look like a joke.

...

[D'ARTOIS]

Het zijn uitsluitend de onnozelaars en politici die hun eigen woorden geloven .........

[zonbron]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door D'ARTOIS

Vandaag was er een melding van de ECB dat er geen geld voorhanden was voor economische steun aan de individuele lidmaten. Het is nu ieder land voor zich om z' n eigen econimie te boosten, voor Brussel/ECB is dat alreeds een gepasseerd station.

Ik las dit in Nu.nl

Wat de EU met Griekenland wil is dat de banken akkoord gaan met 47% van het geinvesteerde geld - over de rente en rente over rente wordt nergens gesproken.

Ik zal het trachten te bekijken, maar op Nu.nl zou een besmettelijk beestje (virus) zitten.

Blijkbaar is het probleem Nu opgelost : http://nuweblog.wordpress.com/2012/0...eid-via-nu-nl/

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Heb het gelezen Nu. Dus blijven de ECB printing presses alvast nog even koel staan en zullen ze minder uitlenen. Op zich is dat geen slechte zaak. Dat leidt tot minder geld(schuld)creatie met alle gevolgen vandien.

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Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door D'ARTOIS

Het zijn uitsluitend de onnozelaars en politici die hun eigen woorden geloven .........

Nigel Farage gelooft er alvast NIETS van. (Delusional politicians... hilarisch )


ENJOY !

Video Nigel Farage : Eurocrats Carry On Up The Khyber, Determined and Delusional, says Farage
Uploaded by europarl on Mar 14, 2012

transcript:
Well, you're back Mr Van Rompuy, another two and half years. No doubt a reward for your great success. Indeed, listening to you I thought perhaps I had got it all wrong.

You talked about how positive the last Council meeting had been - that we've reached the turning point, that everything is going swimmingly. I was beginning to believe it.

But then I realised you did not mention the D word- default. No, that cannot be talked about. We pretend there has not been a default. Well, we know in fact in Greece last week there was a very major credit event.

And indeed, listening to all of you this morning, reminds me of the British comedy classic, 'Carry On up the Khyber' where the colonial English go on having dinner, ignoring the fact that impending disaster is all around them. You are determined but delusional in this attempt to keep the Euro propped up.

And whilst you're enjoying your dinner, incoming shells are landing all around you. Youth unemployment in Greece went through 50 per cent last week. That's fine, carry on, serve the main course.

(* zoals reeds vermeld in deze draad)
And you will have seen yesterday that 110 German holders of Greek bonds are going to take legal action against the banks and against the Greek Government. But don't worry chaps, carry on, everything is going to be fine.

But perhaps the biggest bombshell is the German Finance Minister saying just yesterday nobody can exclude a third bailout. Pass the port. Do enjoy the party.

I mean this is a farcical situation. And why is it happening? That's what people in Europe want to know. Why is this happening?

Is this being done to help Greece? No, it is going to crucify Greece.

It is being done to prop up a failing project because you know that once Greece goes, others will go as well.

And some of the language! Mr Barroso, when leaders stand up and say that political moves are irreversible, history has one lesson. You are always, always going to be proved to be wrong.

[D'ARTOIS]

@ Zonbron

Voor Farage maak ik zeer gaarne en dus met alle plezier een uitzondering ......