DE GROTE EURO ZONE CRISIS : The Endgame

[eno2]

snel veel exporteren jongens

[zonbron]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door eno2

snel veel exporteren jongens

Hoe doen we dat ? Vanuit China ?

[zonbron]

Welke fout heeft de EU gemaakt ? Waar gaan we naartoe ?

Zijn staatsgrepen in Europa en ondemocratische toestanden normaal ?

Hoe moeten we de schulden oplossen ?

Default ?

Het instorten van de EU zal slechts het begin van de ware oplossing betekenen.

NO BIG GOVERNMENT...

Telegrapg/RT - The euro, the debt crisis and the future of the EU

[zonbron]

Een Merkel & Lagarde onderonsje, Duitsland en het IMF praten over de toekomst van de EU...

Eurozone debt crisis live: Merkel and Lagarde meet

7.50am: Morning everyone, and welcome back to our live coverage of the eurozone debt crisis.

Today we have another big meeting, this time between German chancellor Angela Merkel and IMF head Christine Lagarde. The pair are meeting in Berlin and are expected to give a press conference later.

• German chancellor Angela Merkel to meet IMF chief Christine Lagarde
• Austrian debt auction amid Hungary turmoil
• French industrial and manufacturing figures
• Fallout from Hildebrand resignation

[zonbron]

Globalist IMF & Lagarde...

IMF chief: European debt problem solving in 2012 the euro will not die

Maar... wie moet ervoor opdraaien ? En willen deze mensen het wel ?

[eno2]

Enootje altijd gelijk

[zonbron]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door eno2

Enootje altijd gelijk

mmm...

[UnionJack]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door eno2

Enootje altijd gelijk

Over 3 kwartier zal er een persmededeling komen, dat onderandere Frankrijk zijn rating verlaagd is met 1, mogelijk twee stappen. Zij zijn niet de enigen.

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/...owngrade-looms

[UnionJack]

En meer goed nieuws :

http://www.beursduivel.be/nieuws/261...rd-schuld.html

1 euro = 1,2623 dollar

[parcifal]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door UnionJack

En meer goed nieuws :
....

1 euro = 1,2623 dollar

Prima, goed voor de export en binnenkomend toerisme.

Vind je dat overigens plezant, dat aanhalen van een wel heel rechts eurosceptisch vodje als de 'Daily Express' dat zelfs naar engelse 'standaarden' ondermaats is en slechts dient als publicatiemedium van de UKIP?

[UnionJack]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door parcifal

Prima, goed voor de export en binnenkomend toerisme.

Vind je dat overigens plezant, dat aanhalen van een wel heel rechts eurosceptisch vodje als de 'Daily Express' dat zelfs naar engelse 'standaarden' ondermaats is en slechts dient als publicatiemedium van de UKIP?

Ja, ik heb een vod voor u

[kameleon]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door parcifal

Prima, goed voor de export en binnenkomend toerisme.

Vind je dat overigens plezant, dat aanhalen van een wel heel rechts eurosceptisch vodje als de 'Daily Express' dat zelfs naar engelse 'standaarden' ondermaats is en slechts dient als publicatiemedium van de UKIP?

De energiekosten gaan ook omhoog. Bedoel je dat ze waardevolle chocolade mee kunnen nemen naar het buitenland en en hun waardeloze euromunten bij Manneken Pis achterlaten ?

[Mam]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door eno2

snel veel exporteren jongens

Wat exporteren? Er moet eerst terug geproduceerd worden ...

[zonbron]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door kameleon

De energiekosten gaan ook omhoog. Bedoel je dat ze waardevolle chocolade mee kunnen nemen naar het buitenland en en hun waardeloze euromunten bij Manneken Pis achterlaten ?

Helaba, onze driemaal gefermenteerde en andere fijnehandwerken zoals het kloswerk niet vergeten.

[kameleon]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door zonbron

Helaba, onze driemaal gefermenteerde en andere fijnehandwerken zoals het kloswerk niet vergeten.

Als doekje tegen het bloeden dan.
Zerohedge heeft een aparte rubriek gemaakt op de voorpagina voor de downgrade van gisteren. Historisch !

[zonbron]

Jawel beste Dames en Heren (en kinderen).

Het was een uiterst bloedige vrijdag 13de. De woelige markten blijven nazinderen.

January 14, 2012 – FRANCE – Standard & Poor’s swept the debt-ridden European continent with punishing credit downgrades Friday, stripping France of its coveted AAA status and dropping Italy even lower. Germany retained its top-notch rating, but Portugal’s debt was consigned to junk. In all, S&P, which took away the United States’ AAA rating last summer, lowered the ratings of nine countries, complicating Europe’s efforts to find a way out of a debt crisis that still threatens to cause worldwide economic harm. Austria also lost its AAA status, Italy and Spain fell by two notches, and S&P also cut ratings on Malta, Cyprus, Slovakia and Slovenia. The downgrades on more half of the countries that use the euro could drive up yields on European government debt as investors demand more compensation for holding bonds deemed to be riskier. Higher borrowing costs would put more financial pressure on countries already contending with heavy debt burdens. “In our view, the policy initiatives taken by European policymakers in recent weeks may be insufficient to fully address ongoing systemic stresses in the eurozone,” S&P said in a statement. Stocks fell Friday as downgrade rumors reached the trading floors of Europe and the United States. But the declines were nothing like the wrenching swings of last summer and fall, when the debt crisis threw the markets into turmoil. The Dow Jones industrial average in New York was down 0.5 percent. Stocks fell 0.6 percent in Germany, 0.5 percent in Britain and 0.1 in France, but each of those markets closed before French Finance Minister Francois Baroin gave first word of the country’s downgrade on French television. –LA Times

Maandag...

Nu nog even wachten op de nuclaire economische fallout.





Dit terwijl Euro ongezien hoogtes (laagtes) bereikt.

[Piero]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door zonbron

Jawel beste Dames en Heren (en kinderen).

Het was een uiterst bloedige vrijdag 13de. De woelige markten blijven nazinderen.

Nu nog even wachten op de nuclaire economische fallout.

Dit terwijl Euro ongezien hoogtes (laagtes) bereikt.

Iets anders, de besprekingen van de EU en het IMF met Griekenland deze week hebben niet opgeleverd. Er is een denkpauze ingelast. Langzaam aan wordt het duidelijk dat Griekenland uit de EMU zal stappen. En dan kunnen we gaan speculeren over de vraag wie de volgende patiënt zal zijn die moet worden opgegeven. Dit zal vooral de banken in Italië zwaar bezuren.

http://nos.nl/artikel/330505-nog-gee...et-athene.html

[zonbron]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door kameleon

Als doekje tegen het bloeden dan.
Zerohedge heeft een aparte rubriek gemaakt op de voorpagina voor de downgrade van gisteren. Historisch !

A small step for S&P, a giant leap towards 'The Endgame' !!

Hier de link naar het artikel van zerohedge en de S&P FAQ

Zerohedge - The Real Dark Horse - S&P's Mass Downgrade FAQ May Have Just Hobbled The European Sovereign Debt Market

All your questions about the historic European downgrade should be answered after reading the following FAQ. Or so S&P believes. Ironically, it does an admirable job, because the following presentation successfully manages to negate years of endless lies and propaganda by Europe's incompetent and corrupt klepocrarts, and lays out the true terrifying perspective currently splayed out before the eurozone better than most analyses we have seen to date. Namely that the failed experiment is coming to an end. And since the Eurozone's idiotic foundation was laid out by the same breed of central planning academic wizards who thought that Keynesianism was a great idea (and continue to determine the fate of the world out of their small corner office in the Marriner Eccles building), the imminent downfall of Europe will only precipitate the final unraveling of the shaman "economic" religion that has taken the world to the brink of utter financial collapse and, gradually, world war.

Here are the key take home messages from the S&PFAQ

[zonbron]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Piero

Iets anders, de besprekingen van de EU en het IMF met Griekenland deze week hebben niet opgeleverd. Er is een denkpauze ingelast. Langzaam aan wordt het duidelijk dat Griekenland uit de EMU zal stappen. En dan kunnen we gaan speculeren over de vraag wie de volgende patiënt zal zijn die moet worden opgegeven. Dit zal vooral de banken in Italië zwaar bezuren.

http://nos.nl/artikel/330505-nog-gee...et-athene.html

'Een pauze om na te denken' OMG

Dat de ze knoop maar doorhakken. Griekenland zal het na een paar jaar wel halen, en BTW na de Arabische Winter hebben we nieuwe goedkope vakantiebestemmingen nodig.
We zullen er waarschijnlijk binnen een paar jaar wel op de fiets naartoe moeten.

Maar zoals U terecht opmerkt, zal Italië snel volgen, maar dat is tevens een prima vakantiebestemming. Spanje heeft ook problemen, maar mss zal Don Carlos bijspringen.

[zonbron]

HET SNEEUWBAL & BUTTERFLY-EFFECT

The question is no longer if the European Union will face a debt crisis. This was still a debatable topic as we entered 2011. We now can see that investors have turned on the debt, which marks an important psychological moment for the markets.

A piece of snow falls from the sky and lands on a mountainside. It triggers a few more pieces of snow to fall down the mountainside, they begin to gain speed, pick up other pieces of snow, and gain more speed. It reaches a tipping point when it has clearly become an avalanche and at that point it is far more difficult to contain or slow down than the point when it first began. The same theory applies to the collective psychology in our modern bond markets. The entire financial system is based on trust and confidence. What looks like a calm snow bank can soon turn into an avalanche in just a few moments if trust is lost. This can been seen repeatedly throughout market history (Latin debt crisis in 1980’s, Asian debt crisis in 1990’s, Long Term Capital Management in 1998, US subprime debt in 2007) but has most recently been applied to Greece, Portugal, and now Italy.



Now that the avalanche is here and visible the question is: how does this now impact the important financial markets around the world. The butterfly has flapped its wings in Europe, so what will be the effect in a small town in China, or a small business in America?

A recent book called This Time Is Different looked back at centuries of debt crisis and what took place after. Some simple key points:

-When a country reached a total debt to GDP ratio of 90% or higher it became a prime target for a debt avalanche to occur.

-After a major credit crisis (2008) a country becomes likely to soon after experience a sovereign debt crisis if they began on an unstable footing in terms of their sovereign balance sheet

- A sovereign debt crisis leads to austerity (spending cuts) and higher inflation due to bond purchases and bailouts from central banks and other governments

This last point is key because it is where we are today in Europe. When a country is forced to cut government spending their economy is going to slow down in the short term, especially if a large part of its GDP (economy) is currently funded through direct or related government spending.

To help understand why, imagine that you currently spend $20,000 per year using after tax revenue from your job. For the last 10 years you also have spent $20,000 per year using credit card debt that you only make the monthly payment on. You now have $200,000 in credit card debt and the company has told you that you can no longer borrow money. What impact would this have on your personal living standards and lifestyle? Your economic “growth” would take a major hit. It would also impact the economy around you. If you spent $400 a week at a prestigious restaurant and could no longer go, their business would suffer. If you purchased $500 a month in expensive new clothes and now had to shop at Wal-Mart, the high end store would suffer.

This exact scenario, although a very simple example, is what is taking place in Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy as their governments look for ways to cut spending where they did not need to look before. The country as a whole will slow down without the artificial boost it was receiving with enormous deficit spending. This slow down will reduce tax receipts, which will require even more spending cuts, creating a downward spiral effect.

The three major pillars of the global economy are currently the United States, Europe, and China. Many smaller and developing areas are tied in directly to these economies based on the interconnected nature of global trade and finance. While people pay very close attention to China’s exports to the United States, they only recently have taken notice of how dependent China is on exports into Europe.

Many view China’s economy as a potential snow bank just waiting on the first trigger to ignite an avalanche. The reason is not a problem with their government balance sheet (they have run a large trade and balance sheet surplus for many years), it is due to their real estate market.

China has pegged its currency to the United States to keep it artificially low which has provided a boost to their export market (specifically to the United States and Europe). However, when a government intervenes in the free market there are perverse side effects. Imagine a boat pulls up to China’s shores to collect goods that will be shipped back to the United States for consumption. The man on the American boat hands the Chinese exporter American dollars in exchange for the goods. The Chinese exporter then takes those dollars bank to his bank to deposit them.

The Chinese bank then provides the Chinese exporter an equal dollar amount of money in yuan, their local currency. But where does the (large) supply of yuan come from to satisfy the demand of the large number of exporters that show up to the bank to collect the money?

It is created (printed) by the Central Bank of China. The Central Bank stores the dollars as reserves and provides newly printed yuan in exchange. This has flooded the market with currency and has created high inflation in China. This is only one way dollars have entered the country; money can flow freely across borders in our global economy and investors and businesses have poured money into China buying real estate, stocks, businesses and bonds.

In a normal environment this would cause the currency in that country to soar in value (high demand and limited supply), but the central bank has matched this demand with new supply to keep the currency peg in place. So what effect does this have on China? This flood of yuan needs to find a home for Chinese citizens to protect themselves from higher prices. A lion's share of the money has moved into the real estate sector.

This caused prices to rise to astronomical levels creating an unimaginable price vs. income level. This, as we have seen first hand in America, has now created a housing bubble. In addition to the investment money pouring into the market, the government itself has doubled down on the bet and poured government funds into real estate development. Multiple “ghost cities” have even been constructed where hundreds of empty buildings now sit.

Developers are now beginning to miss payments on borrowed money from the banks and many will soon walk away from these debt obligations. This will bring strain on their banking system.

Estimates from fund managers who study the Chinese economy believe that somewhere between 20 – 75% of the entire economy is directly or indirectly related to real estate development. Only 6 – 10% is directly related to exports; the hot button that most analysts like to focus on.

The Chinese real estate market has reached the point where prices are beginning to fall in many major cities. Falling prices will cause new investors to back away from the market and recent investors to become underwater on their loans (sound familiar?). Falling prices in the real estate market is the psychological trigger, the snowflake landing on the slope, that triggers the downward spiral that is extremely difficult to reverse.

A Chinese slowdown of any kind has dramatic repercussions everywhere in the world. Commodity prices are impacted greatly by China’s insatiable appetite for growth (real estate growth). The Australian economy for example is heavily dependent on resource exports to China.

If Europe slows significantly, slowing a major portion of China’s exports to that region, it will only magnify the pain on China’s real estate market, significantly slowing their overall economy. The butterfly has flapped its wings in Italy, and a snowflake may fall on the Chinese economy.

How else will this butterfly effect impact markets around the world? Let’s take a look at a very important mountain slope just waiting for that triggering snowflake.



Bron + Lees meer :[url="http://www.ftense.com/2012/01/2012-outlook-global-butterly-effect.html"]THE FUTURE TENSE: 2012-outlook-global-butterly-effect/URL]