DE GROTE EURO ZONE CRISIS : The Endgame

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Geen Eurocent meer voor Griekenland !

EURUSD Sliding On Anti-Rumor From Europe - Headlines "No More Money To Greece From Eurozone, IMF"

This is not the rumor that the central planning doctor ordered. This time from Dow Jones:

No Intention By Euro Zone, IMF To Give More Money To Greece, Say Dow Jones Sources -DJ
Major Greece creditors made clear EUR130 bn bailout loan "won't be increased by a single euro" - DJ

It remains to be clear if Greece will even get the €130 billion loan still, but that is a different story. EURUSD, and stocks, not happy.

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De ESM/EFSF bluf

The ESM/EFSF Bluff

Both EFSF and ESM rely primarily on guarantees which we know Most European politician think is as valuable as toilet paper, so why not provide more?
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Lagarde wil meer middelen voor het ESM.

FT - Lagarde calls for bigger eurozone firewall

[UnionJack]

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...01/2012_424036

Merkel casts doubt over Greek rescue




German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday expressed doubts for the first time that Greece can be saved from a meltdown, given that after two years of financial assistance and brutal austerity measures, the debt-wracked country still appears unable to rally.

Speaking in a interview with the UK's Guardian and five other leading European newspapers, Merkel described Greece as «a special case,» saying that «despite all the efforts that have been made, neither the Greeks themselves nor the international community have yet managed to stabilize the situation."

Merkel's statements come before a crucial European Union summit on Monday, where she aims to push through a «fiscal compact» treaty that will allow for fines to be levied against fiscal sinners, give the European Court of Justice the power to judge the budgets of the 17 members of the common currency and establish legally binding debt ceilings for eurozone governments.

"There would be no point in promising more and more money without tackling the causes of the crisis,» Merkel said. «Amid all the billions in financial assistance and rescue packages, we Germans also need to watch that we don't run out of steam. After all, our capacities aren't infinite, and overstretching ourselves wouldn't help us or the EU as a whole.

"We will only be able to strengthen our common currency if we co-ordinate our policies more closely and are prepared to gradually give up more powers to the EU. If we make loads of promises about debt reduction and sound budgeting, those need to be things that can be enforced or brought to court in the future. The point of the fiscal compact, after all, is to make it possible to check on those commitments. That means giving our [European] institutions more monitoring rights -– and more bite,» the German chancellor added.

[AsGardSGO]

Griekenland moet uit de Euro stappen zo simpel is dat. Ofwel barst hij daarmee ofwel stutten ze hem nogmaals kunstmatig in de hoop dat het zich vanzelf recht trekt verder...

[eno2]

Ik ben wel een beetje jaloers op deze draad.
De endgame blijft duren....

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Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door eno2

Ik ben wel een beetje jaloers op deze draad.
De endgame blijft duren....

Geduld AUB, het einde komt in zicht.

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Een flow diagram van wat de EU en Griekenland te wachten staat.

*** Eurofielen opgepast, lees enkel de uiterst linkse keuze in het diagram en voorkom een mogelijke ontgoocheling.

Van links naar rechts in het diagram = van minst slechte tot de default van Griekenland.

Next Steps: Presenting The Definitive Greek End Game Flow Chart

Confused by the Greece situation? Dizzied by the PSI haircuts, retractive CACs, Troika promises, ECB participations, local vs non-local law implications, CDS triggers, and ultimately contagion concerns? Fear no more (just like Jamie Dimon apparently) as Barclays presents the definitive Greek End-Game Scenario decision tree.





*** note that the further we move to the right the more likely contagion becomes a large concern. Of course, the key is not simply Greece but the reaction by Portuguese, Irish, and Spanish politicians at Greece's 'out'.

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Ook trouble in het V.K., een reden meer om de E.U.S.S.R niet langer te steunen met belachelijk hoge sommen.

DAILYMAIL - Well, hallelujah! Archbishop blasts clerics who oppose welfare reform and declares the REAL moral scandal is our £1TRILLION debt

[kelt]

Het is vermoedelijk in het belang van de Grieken zelf dat ze er uit stappen.....een jaar of 10 hun zaakjes op orde zetten,en dan,mochtens ze dat willen,en mocht de andere EURO-leden hen nog willen(!!!),opnieuw solliciteren voor de EURO-club.Ik wil dat nog geheel los zien van het lidmaatschap van de EU!

Combinaties van draconisch sparen en economisch groeien zullen in Griekenland niet lukken.Temeer daar de Grieken zelf,anarchistjes als het zijn, hun spaarcentjes al ge-evacueerd hebben naar andere EU-landen....

Een propere uitstap-scenario uit de EURO,met opties om er later weer in te stappen,DAT moet uitgewerkt worden.Zoniet valt niet enkel de EURO maar gans de EU uit elkaar...

We zitten nu in de steeds ondraaglijker situatie dat Duitsland zich geheel "los" groeit" van de EU en dat de EURO op Duitsland ingeschat wordt,niet op al die andere pummeltjes-naties.Het is een kwestie van tijd voordat Merckel in Duitsland het pleit verliest tegen iemand die gewoon die realiteit omzet in politiek en economisch feit...en dan IS het afgelopen...

Dus EU moet voor deze generatie niet persé synoniem staan met EURO!

of nog anders: De EU is een leger,maar om de EURO te mogen gebruiken moet je de commando-opleiding doorlopen hebben!Tot die tijd moeten strukturen ontworpen worden die dit incalculeren....en niet meer doen alsof we één economisch en financieel blok zijn.Niemand gelooft dat nog..stop de schijn...

o ja...
Een deel van de Griekse schulden aan de privé-sector zit overigens in hedge-funds...Zal iemand treuren als die een "hair-cut" van 100% krijgen?

Een ander deel zit bij banken die de facto al overgenomen zijn door de overheid.Het is waarschijnlijk in staatsbelang dat we een zeer grote haircut aanvaarden.We willen nu eenmaal niet dat Griekenland KAPOT gaat,en ondertussen de saga van het niet kunnen terugbetalen nog jaren aansleept nietwaar..

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We zullen allen 'draconisch' moeten sparen beste @kelt.

EU Finance Ministers Push Through ESM Treaty in Fishy Fly-by-Night Move 24 JAN 2012

Submitted by The Prudent Investor

EU Finance Ministers Push Through ESM Treaty in Fishy Fly-by-Night Move

RED ALERT TO EVERYBODY INTERESTED IN THE ESM: THERE IS NO CURRENT VERSION OF THE ESM TREATY AVAILABLE!!!

Europe's most important treaty on the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which will lead the EU into a financial dictatorship, has been pushed through by EU finance ministers late Monday evening.

But the latest version of the ESM cannot be found on English and German EU websites. A link on consilium EU only leads to a 'file not found' message and the German EU website "Europa von A - Z" does not mention the ESM at all. This reminds one of the secrecy around the Federal Reserve Act, that was pushed through in 1912. Is the EU Commission now playing the same fishy game 100 years later?

Media reports from last midnight only said that the ESM treaty was agreed on by EU finance ministers and mentioned January 30 as the date when the treaty will be officially signed.

Significant changes have been made, a few media reported.

The capital of the ESM will now be only €80 billion instead of the €700 billion proposed in the only available draft version from July 2011 (see treaty text below). The finance ministers also agreed to bring the ESM into existence one year earlier by July 2012, putting national governments under immense pressure to ratify the ESM treaty without sufficient public discussion.(zoals voorspeld)

German state TV ZDF reported shortly after Monday midnight that the fund shall have a financing volume of €500 billion, but this figure is a moving goal post. IMF head Christine Lagarde proposed a volume of €1 trillion whereas Italian prime minister Mario Monti and Austrian finance minister Maria 'Mizzi' Fekter said later that the ESM should be upped to €750 billion. Such important changes cannot be found in publicly released EU documents anywhere on the web. The ESM will be the successor of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) which lost its AAA rating a few days ago.

It does not exactly reassure Eurozone citizens when European leaders throw around figures between €500 million and €1 Trillion, proving they have no other clue than to fight debt with more debt if the fund is going to be leveraged inthe proposed style.

It all the more troubling that last night's agreement changes have not been communicated by the EU at all. It reminds one of the ACTA act that was signed in a non-public meeting of the Agriculture and Fishing Commission and is designed to destroy the freedom on the internet. As a side note: Anonymous brought down the websites of three Austrian ministries and the Austrian chancellery on Monday evening, protesting that Austria will be one of the first countries to ratify this attack on internet freedom. This was not reported by Austrian state broadcaster ORF.
I have published my objections to the ESM in this post from last December. Nothing has changed since except for the reduction of the proposed capital and the date the treaty shall go into effect. The ESM and its staff will be completely immune and cannot be sued, but can sue itself. This stinks.

Here is a video describing the democratic shortfalls of the ESM treaty in German with English subtitles.

Nogmaals de ESM-video HIER

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Analyse ESM und Fiskalpakt: EU-Gipfel ebnet Weg zur Schuldenunion

Beim EU-Gipfel am Montag wurden die vermutlich weitreichendsten Veränderungen für Europa seit Einführung der gemeinsamen Währung beschlossen. Mit dem ESM verliert der Deutsche Bundestag die volle Souveränität im Budget-Recht. Die EZB wird die Finanzwirtschaft durch Gelddrucken stützen. Und der verwässerte Fiskal-Pakt ist nicht mehr als ein Feigenblatt, damit Deutschland als der größte Nettozahler nicht unnötig gereizt wird.

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Der ESM schafft eine zentrale Veränderung in Europa: Die Staaten zahlen 700 Milliarden in einen Fonds, der von Technokraten verwaltet wird. Das Geld der Deutschen kann im weiteren Verlauf beliebig in Europa verteilt werden. Es entsteht eine Schuldenunion nicht gekannten Ausmaßes – vollkommen ohne jede parlamentarische Mitwirkung. Auch das EU-Parlament ist nur Zuseher (mehr im Detail hier).

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Das zweite Vehikel, der sogenannte Fiskal-Pakt (mehr über diesen Vertrag – hier; und über seine finale Form – hier) soll den europäischen Staaten eiserne Fiskaldisziplin auferlegen.Der Pakt wurde am EU-Gipfel ebenfalls beschlossen, Großbritannien und Tschechien machen nicht mit.

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Een explosief rapport ?

Business Insider - The Report That Will Blow Up The Eurozone

Germany wants Greece to give up budget control

Germany is pushing for Greece to relinquish control over its budget policy to European institutions as part of discussions over a second rescue package, a European source told Reuters on Friday.

"There are internal discussions within the Euro group and proposals, one of which comes from Germany, on how to constructively treat country aid programs that are continuously off track, whether this can simply be ignored or whether we say that's enough," the source said.

The source added that under the proposals European institutions already operating in Greece should be given "certain decision-making powers" over fiscal policy. "This could be carried out even more stringently through external expertise," the source said.

The Financial Times said it had obtained a copy of the proposal showing Germany wants a new euro zone "budget commissioner" to have the power to veto budget decisions taken by the Greek government if they are not in line with targets set by international lenders.


...


a second bailout for Portugal is looming near:

Investors fear mounting losses in Portugal as second rescue looms

Portugal is fighting a losing battle to contain its public debt and may be forced to impose haircuts of up to 50pc on private creditors, according to a top German institute.

A report for the Kiel Institute for the World Economy said Portugal would have to run a primary budget surplus of over 11pc of GDP a year to prevent debt dynamics spiralling out of control, even in a benign scenario of 2pc annual growth.

"Portugal's debt is unsustainable. That is the only possible conclusion," said David Bencek, the co-author, warning that no country can achieve a primary budget surplus above 5pc for long. "We won't know what the trigger will be but once there is a decision on Greece people are going to start looking closely and realise that Portugal is the same position as Greece was a year ago."


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Bullman said that shipping companies have also been deliberately slowing down their journeys to save fuel, with trips from China to the US going now taking around 50% longer than they were early in 2011.

Instead, he said he was surprised by how long the Baltic Dry took to fall. The NewContex index – an indicator of prices for transporting products in container ships – started falling in April last year. Bullman said: "When we saw that happening in April, we realised that risks had returned to pre-2008 levels. We thought the Baltic Dry would start falling too, but it was actually relatively resilient."

"What this is signalling is that the world economy is slowing down much more quickly than people have been thinking."

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...in Holland, where I'll be for a few more days, there's a "rogue" right-wing party named PVV (Party for Freedom). It has no cabinet ministers, but the minority moderate right-wing government needs its support to stay in the saddle. The PVV, like other European right-wingers, is, among many other things, against much of what the European Union stands for. It's certainly against the Euro, and the bailouts with Dutch taxpayer money of countries like Greece and Portugal.

A few months ago, the PVV announced they had commissioned a report from British financial consultancy firm Lombard Street Research on the economic consequences of staying in the Eurozone versus returning to the guilder.

That report is about to be published "within days". It will prove to be highly explosive material. And the PVV will do all it possibly can to make sure it receives a lot of media attention. It may tear down the incumbent government, which is a heavy advocate of all things Europe, and which will have to quit once the PVV support dies, but for that party that's not the no. 1 concern.

And if and when Holland has a large scale discussion on the report and the issues it raises, Germany won't be able to ignore it and stay behind. And then, neither will France.

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Why Germans and Dutch will exit 'suicide pact' eurozone

Germany and the Netherlands are likely to quit the eurozone rather than swallow an indefinite number of 'unrequited transfers' to the union’s crisis-stricken nations, according to Charles Dumas, chief economist at Lombard Street Research.

Speaking at an event in central London, he said that before joining the single currency, German incomes had stayed level but their purchasing power had increased as the Deutschmark appreciated. With the weaker euro, the economist said, they have seen 'tremendous' wage restraint, leading to huge growth in German firms’ market share but ‘no serious growth of the economy’ and a squeeze on disposable incomes. Meanwhile, consumption rose elsewhere in the eurozone, he said.

'So what you’re actually dealing with here... is a German population which has had a rotten deal – and that’s why they’re all so angry' noted Dumas, who is also chairman of the macroeconomic forecasting consultancy. Branding the monetary union a 'suicide pact', he continued: 'So what this exercise in uniting Europe has achieved is to divide Europe.'

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This morning, Dutch daily Algemeen Dagblad cited Dumas as saying these numbers are "cautious estimates". They are valid only if Greece and Portugal would leave the Eurozone in 2012 - which Dumas expects will happen -. If they don't, the payments will be even higher.

He predicts the costs of a return to the guilder will be much less than for instance the Dutch government's Central Planning Bureau claims, which warns of huge losses if Holland were to leave the Euro.

Dumas: "It's just like in a religion: first they promise you heaven, and if that doesn't work out, they threaten you with hell."

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Sure, the Dutch government, and certainly the EU and the banking system, have formidable PR machineries at their disposal. We’ll see a lot of numbers being floated that contradict Lombard's report. And we'll have to wait a few days to see exactly what numbers Dumas et al. come up with.

But the people of Germany and Holland are already very nervous about the fact that they face austerity and budget cuts while billions of euros are transferred to southern Europe. Up until now, the fear of economic disaster predicted in unison by government leaders have kept them quiet. Now that a reputable economic research firm flatly contradicts these predictions, and states that, instead, it's staying within the Eurozone that will be the far more costly option, the people will grow increasingly restless.

Charles Dumas again, from Algemeen Dagblad:

"The Dutch people have lost thousands of euros in purchasing power per year since the currency was introduced."

Governments in Berlin and The Hague will have a lot of explaining to do. They have to do so against a backdrop of (near-)failing Greek debt swap talks, which will at the very least force them to admit that they have a lost tens of billions in taxpayer money to Club Med countries already.

With a second Portugal bailout waiting in the wings. And lots of negative news on Italy and Spain. And more domestic budget cuts.

They’ll realize that their governments have painted far too rosy pictures about the issues so far. And they’ll expect them to deliver more of the same. This is what we call a receding trust horizon.

It's not the report alone, it's the entire combination of factors. The report will "merely" serve as the catalyst that blows up the powder keg. It may take a few months, but it will happen. The publicity hungry rogue PVV party that commissioned it, followed by anti-Eurozone voices elsewhere, will make sure of that.

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Spoedig rest Griekenland enkel nog de absolute armoede...

ZEROHEDGE Greece Warns It Will Soon Be In "Condition Of Absolute Poverty"

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Koffers pakken ?

Exodus from the Eurozone Debt Crisis

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VOKA : België officieel in recessie

[Piero]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Piero

Met de collaps van de Eurozone die al is begonnen zullen de geldpersen volgend jaar (2012) moeten gaan draaien om de gegarandeerde bankrekeningen van geld te voorzien. Dit betekent een devaluatie van de Euro en van alle waardepapieren (o.a. vastgoed, aandelen en staatsobligaties) waardoor de klap tot in China en Australië te horen zal zijn. Banken gaan volgend jaar wereldwijd crashen.

Gisteren werd opgemerkt dat de Spaanse banken pas 30% van de daling van de waarde van vastgoed hebben afgeschreven (Nu.nl). Ze moeten dit jaar van de SB voor 50 miljard Euro afschrijven. Vandaag blijkt ook Nederland hiermee achter te lopen. Pensioenfondsen die nog een vastgoed portefeuille hebben zijn gewaarschuwd! >

DNB vreest derde financiële crisis
Laatste update: 3 februari 2012 08:01 info

AMSTERDAM - Na de kredietcrisis en de Europese schuldencrisis dreigt de vastgoedsector de derde financiële crisis te worden. Dat zegt de nieuwe directeur toezicht bij De Nederlandse Bank (DNB), Jan Sijbrand, in een interview met Het Financiële Dagblad van vrijdag.

''Vastgoed is een probleem voor de sector door het structurele overaanbod aan kantoren en winkelpanden. Er is minder behoefte vanwege het nieuwe werken en het internet-winkelen'', aldus Sijbrand.

Behalve banken hebben institutionele beleggers als verzekeraars en pensioenfondsen miljarden euro's uitstaan in commercieel vastgoed.

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Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Piero

Gisteren werd opgemerkt dat de Spaanse banken pas 30% van de daling van de waarde van vastgoed hebben afgeschreven (Nu.nl). Ze moeten dit jaar van de SB voor 50 miljard Euro afschrijven. Vandaag blijkt ook Nederland hiermee achter te lopen. Pensioenfondsen die nog een vastgoed portefeuille hebben zijn gewaarschuwd! >

Ach... bah. Nevertheless is Uw herinnering van Uw vorige post 'een geestesverruimer, dit alhoewel het bwaaaa-gevoel.


Maak U geen zorgen, spoedig aanmoedigende notities vanuit het steeds (geografisch) groeiende Islas Canarias.

Kruis alvast Uw vingers.

Ach... once again.

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En oja Dames, Heren en... de instabilisatie neemt grootse proporties aan...

Europe's "Great Deleveraging" Has Only Just Begun



Maar dit is niets om U zorgen over te maken, het namelijk 'pas begonnen' en zonder twijfel onononononomkeerbaar. De sneeuw zal spoedig smelten.

[Piero]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door zonbron

En oja Dames, Heren en... de instabilisatie neemt grootse proporties aan...

Europe's "Great Deleveraging" Has Only Just Begun

Maar dit is niets om U zorgen over te maken, het namelijk 'pas begonnen' en zonder twijfel onononononomkeerbaar. De sneeuw zal spoedig smelten.

Inderdaad, de geldpersen zullen nog jaren euro's uitspugen.