Open Europe : Daily Press Summary

[Politics.be]

New Open Europe briefing: The UK would likely get a trade deal in goods outside the EU but may struggle in services;Use of ‘Article 50’ risks giving the EU the upper hand in Brexit talksOpen Europe has today published a new report, based on the conclusions of the first-ever simulated UK-EU negotia*tions hosted by Open Europe in December, looking at what deal the UK could realistically get outside the EU – and how it would actually leave. The report argues that while the so-called Article 50 process is a guaranteed way to trigger negotiations in Europe – which David Cameron’s renegotiation strategy lacks – it comes with several drawbacks, including the remaining EU member states being in charge of the timetable, the actual vote on the deal not including the UK, and the European Parliament having a veto over any new free trade agreement with the UK.In addition, while there would be a strong incentive for the EU to conclude a trade deal with the UK for goods, where Britain has a trade deficit with the EU, striking a deal on services and financial services in particular – where it has a trade surplus – would be far more difficult. Ultimately, even though the transaction costs of leaving the EU will undoubtedly be very high, it might be an unavoidable price for greater economic and political independence if the necessary reform of the EU proves unattainable or if the EU becomes dominated by the eurozone. However, given how complicated the process of leaving is, it would be a major mistake not to test the limits of reform first. Open Europe's full report 'Gaming Europe's Future: Simulating the negotiations that could determine Britain's place in Europe', assesses the negotiating dynamics in both a 'renegotiation from within' and 'Brexit' scenario.Open Europe press release Open Europe briefing

Dutch Foreign Minister: We’re ready for EU Treaty change in next five years but many EU reforms can be achieved without it;
Fabius: EU Treaty change could take place in 2019
In a debate on the future of the EU in the Dutch Parliament yesterday, Prime Minister Mark Rutte insisted that “EU reforms are needed to deal with legitimate concerns". Foreign Minister Frans Timmermans said that the Dutch government “would do everything to keep the UK on board it's the UK's choice”. He argued that “The Netherlands has chosen to stress the importance of subsidiarity without asking for special treatment. This approach increasingly appeals to the United Kingdom as well”.

Timmermans added that “Our top priority is reform within the current EU Treaty framework but we'll be ready in case it comes to EU Treaty change… this can take five years and either way we should try to achieve EU reform already”.

Separately, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius yesterday said that France was anticipating negotiations over EU Treaty change taking place in 2019, at the end of the next Commission’s term of office.
ND ND 2 ND3 SP blog

In a televised address yesterday, French President François Hollande confirmed the appointment of Manuel Valls as new Prime Minister. Valls is expected to unveil his cabinet tomorrow. Cécile Duflot and Pascal Canfin, two incumbent ministers from the Green Party, said yesterday that they would not take part in the new government because “the ideas supported by the new Prime Minister ...do not constitute an appropriate response to the problems of the French.”
Open Europe blog Telegraph European Voice Euractiv BBC FAZ: Nonnenmacher Süddeutsche Times Times: Leader Mail WSJ Le Figaro Le Monde La Tribune Les Echos FT FT 2 Reuters EUobserver Handeslblatt: Hanke

The New York Times Dealbook cites Open Europe’s ‘Battle of Londongrad?’ flash analysis. Open Europe’s Raoul Ruparel is quoted arguing that, “Claims that the City of London would suffer major losses in case of financial sanctions against Russia are overblown,” given that the data show the links between the two are not huge, since London is a global financial centre.
Open Europe flash analysis NYT

Putin claims to be pulling back troops from Ukraine border as invasion fears continue;
NATO examining possibility of defence alliance with Eastern European countries
Speaking to German Chancellor Angela Merkel yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin assured her that he had ordered a partial pullback of troops from the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, Russia today hiked the price that it charges to Ukraine for natural gas price by almost 44%.

Separately, Spiegel reports on an internal NATO paper suggesting military exercises – or even the possibility of a defence alliance – with countries like Moldova and Armenia. Speaking in Weimar this morning, German Foreign Minister, Frank Walter Steinmeier said that, “I do not see a way for NATO membership” – although this is not the official position of the German government.
Telegraph Irish Times BBC Irish Independent FAZ FAZ: Veser Süddeutsche FT FT Interview: Tymoshenko EUobserver EUobserver2 FT 2 Times Spiegel Handeslblatt Welt Reuters Deutschland Irish Independent

Labour’s Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls will today say that “To walk away from our EU membership would be reckless, foolish and deeply damaging. It would be anti-investment, anti-jobs and anti-business.”
Reuters

The Times reports that in a report addressed to the European Commission and to Baroness Ashton, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, MEPs have recommended “setting up a worldwide European radio service could be very useful as a comprehensive tool for the EU’s external relations and the promotion of universal democratic values and human rights”.
European Parliament report Times Times: Leader

Data released yesterday estimated that eurozone annual inflation fell to 0.5% in March, its lowest level for five years, increasing pressure on the ECB to take action at its meeting this week. EU Economics Commissioner Olli Rehn said yesterday that he is “concerned” about a prolonged period of low inflation while IMF officials said they are “very worried” and that there is scope for “more easing” by the ECB.
Open Europe blog FT Reuters Reuters 2

The European Commission's Expert Group on a debt redemption fund and eurobills yesterday presented its final report. EU Economics Commissioner Olli Rehn said that the report laid out options for completing the Economic and Monetary Union, stressing that the eurozone has “virtually exhausted the options under the current Treaty”, adding, “Any steps to further solidarity should go hand-in-hand with greater fiscal responsibility and integration.”
Commission press release

In an interview with Bloomberg yesterday Greek Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras stressed that the country will not need a third bailout, saying that the country was “fully for the next 12 months”. Separately, eurozone finance ministers will meet in Athens today to discuss progress of some of the bailout countries.
Bloomberg Kathimerini Kathimerini 2 Süddeutsche European Voice

The WSJ reports that the pay-out of the next tranche of bailout funds for Portugal has been delayed until late June. This delays any debate about future financing or aid for Portugal until after the May European elections have taken place.
WSJ

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi yesterday unveiled a new bill to reform the Senate, the upper house of the Italian parliament, so that it no longer holds equal powers with the lower chamber. The proposed reform involves changing the constitution, a process that can take several months.
FT Repubblica

Germany’s CSU party demands immediate stop of Turkish EU accession negotiations;
Dutch governing party calls for an end to EU subsidies for Turkey
German CSU General Secretary Andreas Scheuer has said “the CSU demands the immediate stop of EU accession negotiations” with Turkey. Meanwhile, De Volkskrant reports that the Dutch government has “grave concerns” about Turkey's blocking of Twitter and Youtube, with VVD’s EU spokesman Mark Verheijen saying that with these actions Erdogan is pointing “his middle finger” towards the EU. Verheijen is calling for an end to EU subsidies for Turkey.
FAZ Süddeutsche Spiegel Welt Volkskrant Erdogan speech Svenska Dagbladet


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