Open Europe : Cut through the chatter

[Politics.be]

Former German Constitutional Court judge says EU free trade agreements with the US and Canada breach German as well as EU lawA former German Constitutional Court judge, Siegfried Broß, is quoted by Süddeutsche Zeitung as saying, “Germany and the EU are not allowed to complete [the TTIP and CETA] agreements with the currently known clauses regarding investor protection and private arbitral courts…these clauses violate German Constitutional Law, EU law and constitute a breach of international law.”Source: Süddeutsche Zeitung

Finland, Commission and IMF sceptical of Greek debt write down though France suggests it is open to the idea
In an interview with the Financial Times, French Finance Minister Michel Sapin suggested he was open to discussing a restructuring of Greek debt saying, “all the possible issues” must be dealt with. However, in an interview with Kathimerini, Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb reiterated his opposition to such a move saying, “It would not be acceptable to Finland. It would not be in line with basic EU rules”. Similarly, EU Commission Vice President in charge of the euro, Valdis Dombrovskis, also told Reuters that the Eurozone is “not considering debt write-offs”. Speaking to the Irish Times IMF Chief Christine Lagarde expressed scepticism, warning that debt is a “contract” and changes have consequences for “confidence”.

With one week left until the elections polls show SYRIZA’s lead holding – a survey published on Sunday in Greek To Vima newspaper showed its lead actually increased from 2.5% to 3.1% over New Democracy. Separately, Reuters reports that the Commission is mulling a further six month extension of the Greek bailout, though this would not involve any new cash.

Source: Kathimerini, The Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Irish Times, Reuters
Poll finds Conservative voters favour restricting migrants’ benefits over ending EU free movement
A Survation poll for the Bright Blue think tank has found that twice as many Conservative voters thought the best way to control immigration was to limit migrants’ access to benefits (61%), rather than withdraw from free movement rules in the EU (29%). The poll, published today as part of a new report, was conducted before the Prime Minister made his immigration speech in November 2014.

Source: Open Europe Intelligence: Saving free movement, The Daily Telegraph, Bright Blue polling
EU finance ministers will not discuss easing of Russian sanctions
Ahead of a meeting of EU Foreign Ministers today, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini has stated that the bloc’s sanctions on Russia will not be up for discussion. This follows the disclosure last week of an EU document outlining possible areas of renewed cooperation with Moscow. Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said that the Ukrainian government has rejected the peace plan proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin last Thursday.

Source: Bloomberg, The Irish Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Wall Street Journal 2
Lucke pushes through in AfD internal power struggle
Bernd Lucke, leader of Germany’s anti-Euro AfD party, prevailed in an internal leadership battle as the party’s senior figures agreed on Friday that from December 2015, AfD will only have one national chairman, instead of the current triumvirate. As an interim solution until then, the party will function under the dual leadership of Lucke and Frauke Petry, the party’s leader in Saxony.

Source: Handelsblatt
Uber boss: Favourable regulation of ridesharing apps could lead to 50,000 new jobs in Europe
Uber founder and CEO Travis Kalanick yesterday argued that the taxi-sharing app could create 50,000 new jobs in Europe this year and take 400,000 cars off the streets if regulators in European cities start working with Uber to introduce “progressive regulation” allowing the growth of ridesharing apps.

Source: CityAM
Philip Hammond: UK welfare system “wide open to abuse” of EU free movement rules
Britain is “wide open to abuse” from migrants looking to “freeload”, UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said yesterday. He told MPs on the House of Commons European Scrutiny Committee, “We have tightened up some things already and there are going to be more measures that we can introduce to make it more difficult for people from the EU to abuse our system. But there will be some areas where we need changes to change the way the EU rules work if we are to have sufficient impact on immigration levels to satisfy British public opinion.”

He added, “I can only speak for myself, but I think I speak for many others – we can’t say we are supporters of continued membership until we see what the reform package we are able to negotiate looks like.” Referring to his meetings in other EU capitals, he said, “Now that I have embarked upon the exercise that I am doing…I am very clear that we will be able to negotiate a substantial package of reform.”

Meanwhile, Sir John Major has said that Britain would lose “some of its influence and power” if it left the EU, adding, “That case must be used to recapture the hearts and minds of the British people.”

Source: Open Europe Intelligence, The Times, The European Magazine

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Dutch Parliament sceptical of benefits of ECB bond-buying
Dutch media report that a majority in the lower house of the Dutch Parliament are against ECB Quantitative Easing (QE), including the governing centre-right party VVD. Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem criticised French President François Hollande for suggesting that the ECB would announce QE at its meeting tomorrow. He said, “Obviously this shouldn’t happen. It’s not possible that knows about this.”

Meanwhile, according to Italian business daily Il Sole 24 Ore, Thursday’s vote in the ECB may end 13-8 in favour of QE – which would signal a much larger split than anticipated. The Financial Times cites Open Europe’s recent paper on QE saying, “as Raoul Ruparel of Open Europe, a think-tank, has shown, the steep devaluation of the yen since 2012 has failed to spur any significant increase in Japanese exports.”

Source: De Telegraaf, Il Sole 24 Ore, The Financial Times, NU.nl, Open Europe Intelligence
SYRIZA leader pledges to “respect” Greece’s obligation to maintain balanced budget
SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras writes in the Financial Times, “We must end austerity so as not to let fear kill democracy. Unless the forces of progress and democracy change Europe, it will be Marine Le Pen and her far-right allies that change it for us”. He also stressed that a SYRIZA government “will respect Greece’s obligation, as a Eurozone member, to maintain a balanced budget” but will not pursue austerity.

Meanwhile, Front National leader Marine Le Pen told Le Monde that she “would be delighted” if SYRIZA won the Greek elections, as this would be a victory against “the totalitarianism of the EU and its accomplices.” Separately, Greek Finance Minister Gikas Hardouvelis has warned that “a Quantitative Easing programme alone is not enough to solve the Greek economy’s liquidity problems.”

Source: Le Monde, Kathimerini, The Financial Times
Schäuble: Dissolving the Troika would require EU treaty change
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports that German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble told the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry yesterday that dissolving the EU/IMF/ECB Troika would require EU treaty change, while stressing that the Troika is “the right instrument” to supervise Eurozone countries under bail-out programmes.

Source: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Reuters
New poll: Greens surge at expense of Labour, giving Conservatives the lead
A new YouGov poll for the Sun has the Conservatives on 32%, Labour on 30%, UKIP on 15%, the Greens on 10%, and the Liberal Democrats on 8%.

Source: The Sun
Poroshenko: Western sanctions an instrument to keep Russia at negotiating table
Ahead of talks in Berlin this evening between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany aimed at renewing the ceasefire between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has said that Western sanctions on Russia “are working”, since they are “not just bringing some problems to Russia, but an instrument to keep it at the negotiating table.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, BBC News
Poland announces investigation into impact of SNB move on Poles with mortgages in Swiss Francs
The Polish government has ordered an investigation into the impact of the Swiss National Bank’s decision to remove its peg with the euro on the 550,000 Polish homeowners who have $36bn worth of mortgages denominated in Swiss francs.

Source: TVN
Microsoft calls for EU-US data sharing agreement
The Financial Times reports that Brad Smith, general counsel of Microsoft, has called for an agreement between the EU and the US to make it easier for law enforcement authorities to access and share citizens’ data.

Source: The Financial Times
Sir John Cunliffe gives cautious welcome to Capital Markets Union at Open Europe event

Speaking at an Open Europe and City of London Conference yesterday, Sir John Cunliffe, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, welcomed the EU’s plan to create a Capital Markets Union (CMU) in order to wean the EU off its heavy reliance on the banking sector for financing – although he warned that creating a CMU would be “a marathon, not a sprint.” He said, “Though there may be early wins, it will involve a carefully planned, detailed and sustained effort over a number of years and in a very wide range of areas. The benefits, however, could be very large indeed.” Speaking at the same event, Lord Green of Hurstpierpoint added that the UK had “a very clear role to play” in the creation of CMU as “practitioners in London have more breadth of experience than any other practitioners in Europe…We should play on that.” The event was covered by Reuters.

European leaders intervene in debate as ECB readies QE for Thursday
French President François Hollande yesterday surprisingly announced mid-way through a speech, “On Thursday, the ECB will take the decision to buy sovereign debt” – seemingly revealing the action of the independent central bank. Hollande later attempted to backtrack saying he was referring only to the “hypothesis” of Quantitative Easing (QE). German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that she had “only one plea”, that, “It must be avoided that any action taken by the ECB in any respect whatsoever could result in the impression that what needs to be done in the fiscal and competitive spheres could be pushed into the background.”

Meanwhile, amid reports of compromises on the structure of the bond purchases, Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan said, “if becomes the function of national central banks rather than primarily of , then I think it will be ineffective.”
Separately, Open Europe’s new paper assessing the effectiveness of QE was cited by the Daily Mail, Capital and Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten, Open Europe Berlin Director Michael Wohlgemuth was cited in the German newspaper Badische Zeitung, arguing that “QE is more likely to create political damage in the Eurozone than economic benefits.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung The Irish Times The Daily Mail Badische Zeitung

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Greek Finance Ministry officials fear ‘de facto Grexit’ if Greece is left out of ECB QE
Kathimerini reports that, according to Greek Finance Ministry officials, plans to exclude Greece from the ECB QE programme could amount to a “de facto Grexit” – since it excludes Greece from decision making and breaks the ECB’s promise to support the country while it is in a bailout programme. El Pa�*s notes that around 100,000 young Greeks born in 1997, who will turn 18 this year, will not be able to vote in Sunday’s general election despite being entitled to do so under Greek law. This is because the country’s electoral register is updated every year in February.

Greek Deputy Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos told Italian daily La Stampa that SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras is promising “a magical return to the prosperity of the past, as if he were Harry Potter”. However, he suggested his party would be prepared to form a coalition with SYRIZA if necessary.

Source: Kathimerini La Stampa El Pa�*s
New research finds twice as many EU nationals claim UK unemployment benefits than vice versa
Research by The Guardian has revealed that there are around 30,000 British nationals claiming unemployment benefits in 23 of the 27 other EU member states, compared to around 65,000 nationals from the rest of the EU claiming Job Seeker’s Allowance in the UK. Open Europe Research Director Stephen Booth appeared on LBC discussing the figures and pointing out that access to in-work benefits was a more significant issue.

Source: The Guardian The Daily Telegraph The Daily Mail
IMF cuts forecasts as Eurozone seen weighing on global growth despite oil price fall
The IMF today downgraded its global economic growth forecast, with the forecast for Eurozone growth being cut by 0.2% this year and 0.3% next year – bringing them to 1.2% and 1.4%. The forecasts include the effect of further ECB action.

Source: IMF
Alexander: Labour would “review, repair and reset” UK-EU relations
The Financial Times reports that Labour’s Shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander will give a speech in Paris today in which he will accuse Prime Minister David Cameron of presiding over “the most significant decline in British influence in Europe for a generation”. He will pledge that a Labour government would “review, repair and reset” UK-EU relations.

Source: The Financial Times
Germany’s ‘anti-Islamisation’ movement Pegida calls for dialogue with political parties
At an unprecedented press conference yesterday, Lutz Bachmann and Kathrin Oertel, two members of the ‘anti-Islamisation’ Pegida movement’s organisation committee proposed initiating a dialogue with political parties about their demands which include tighter immigration controls and the insertion of a ‘duty of integration’ clause into the German Constitution. Die Welt reports that while the SPD’s General Secretary Yasmin Fahimi categorically rejected the overture, while the CDU’s Wolfgang Bosbach, the chair of the Bundestag’s Home Affairs committee, indicated that he would be open to such a dialogue.

Source: Die Welt
Popularity rebound for Hollande in the wake of Paris attacks
The approval ratings of French President François Hollande have risen significantly in the wake of the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris. His popularity increased by 21% in the latest IFOP poll for Paris Match, and by 20% in the latest Ipsos Barometer for French magazine Le Point.

Source: Le Figaro
Renzi faces party rebellion ahead of key vote on new electoral law
The left wing of Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party is threatening to vote against the new electoral law ahead of today’s key vote in the Italian Senate, the upper house of parliament. The bill is still expected to pass thanks to support from Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party.

Source: Corriere della Sera La Repubblica
AfD slips slightly in new poll amid signs FDP could be mounting a recovery
A new INSA poll for Bild has German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU in the lead on 42% (-1%) followed by the SPD on 23%, the Greens on 10%, Die Linke on 9%, the anti-euro Alternative für Deutschland on 7% (-0.5%) and the liberal FDP on 3.5% (+1%).

Source: Bild
Danish Central Bank cuts interest rates ahead of ECB action
The Danish Central Bank yesterday moved its deposit rate further into negative territory (to -0.2%) and cut its main interest rate to near zero to help protect its currency peg to the euro as the ECB prepares to launch QE. The move raised concerns that Denmark could follow Switzerland in scrapping its euro peg.

Source: Danmarks Nationalbank
EU Foreign Ministers to discuss changing rules on Schengen agreement
European Foreign Ministers gathered in Brussels yesterday to discuss a plan to coordinate intelligence efforts to prevent terror suspects exploiting the ease of travel within the EU. Open Europe’s Christopher Howarth is quoted by Spanish news agency EFE saying that the EU should focus on the “implementation of a procedure for the sharing of passenger name records. This should allow states to track potential terrorists or suspects across borders while ensuring appropriate safeguards are in place to protect passengers’ personal details.”

Source: EFE The Wall Street Journal The Independent GVA
64% of French in favour of delivering Mistral warships to Russia
According to a new IFOP poll for La Tribune, 64% of French are in favour of delivering the two Mistral warships ordered by Russia in 2011. France has so far held up the delivery in light of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.

Source: La Tribune
German immigration figures on 20 year high
Passauer Neue Presse reports that 1.23 million people migrated to Germany in 2013 which is the highest figure since 20 years. However, emigration figures also increased leaving a net migration of 430.000 people.

Source: Handelsblatt
Open Europe and City of London to host leading figures to discuss role of financial services in a changing EU

Open Europe and the City of London will today host a conference to discuss the challenges facing the financial services sector in light of the changing nature of the EU, and Britain’s role in it. Leading economists and policymakers will offer their insights, with a keynote speech by Sir Jon Cunliffe CB, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England.

Amongst other speakers, delegates will be addressed by Rimantas �*adžius, the Finance Minister of Lithuania, representing the newest member of the Eurozone, and Sharon Bowles, non-executive Director of the London Stock Exchange and former Chair of the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.

Bron: politics.be