De economische kant van het conflict

[kelt]

Overheden,gelijk welke overheden,kunnen en zullen bedrijven onder hun jurisdiktie desnoods DWINGEN een beetje mee te werken als er eens iets is...een oorlogje bijvoorbeeld...
LAat ons geen illusie hebben en we mogen gerust naar overal rond wijzen...

Zo is er een nieuw,en mogelijk nog steeds onschuldig slachtoffer gevallen...

De gewaardeerde software-beveiligingsfirma Kaspersky wordt massaal gedesinstalleerd,tot zelfs bij mijn eigen werkgever toe.

Dit wordt ook uitdrukkelijk geadviseerd door steeds meer overheden.(het was begonnen met de Amerikanen uiterraard)

Het is gewoon een ongelofelijk risico een Russische softwarefirma te laten "opereren" in het binnenste van het binnenste van onze computerinfrastruktuur....

jammer maar helaas...

[Bach]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Jan van den Berghe

Schijnbaar bent u een aanhanger van de complottheorie van de gouden dinar... De VN-resolutie laat evenwel andere redenen zijn die de militaire tussenkomst gerechtvaardigd maken.

De R2P resolutie ivm Libië werd misbruikt om een regime change project door te voeren met bombardementen waarbij ook burgers stierven, onder protest van China en Rusland over dit misbruik van een VN resolutie.

Een van de eerste dingen die de westerse veroveraars deden na de macht gegrepen te hebben in Libië en de moord op Gaddafi was de Libische goudreserves het land uit slepen richting VS.

[Bach]

..

[Boduo]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Jan van den Berghe

Welke munt wordt er dan nog wel gedekt door de goudvoorraad van een land?

het gaat niet over een munt.
Het gaat over de waarde van goud.
Een gouden Krugerrand was in 2004 +/- 120 € waard.
Nu, 18 jaar later is dat +/- 1900 €.
Wat is er nog zo veel gestegen in waarde ???

[Jan van den Berghe]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door gunter5148

geen enkele. de laatste was de usd tot nixon de "goldwindow" dichtdeed in '71. Omdat hij geen goud aan de gaulle kon blijven leveren, die het handelsoverschot liever niet in dollars aanhield.

Tot vorige week, dus.

En nu blijf ik met een fijne kam door alle mogelijke nieuwsbronnen gaan, om bevestiging te zoeken, dat het ECHT de bedoeling van de russen is, van de roebel een "gedragen" munt te maken.

Wat is er dan wel vorige week gebeurd?

[Dade]

kijk , kijk, een tweedekker

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/i...?itok=nhgvYPGQ

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/i...?itok=dHXhcEcf

[Bach]

The Bank of Russia has frozen the assets of unfriendly countries for $ 300 billion

Yesterday, the Central Bank announced that it had taken mirror measures against unfriendly countries to freeze their financial assets in Russia totaling $ 300 billion.

It was for this amount that a restriction on the movement of capital was introduced, by introducing a complete ban on the possibility of foreign companies selling shares of Russian companies on the stock market, as well as by completely refusing to pay foreign debts.

The Bank of Russia has suspended payments on the corporate debt of our companies to creditors from unfriendly countries. Now all payments to such creditors are possible only with the written consent of a specially created commission under the Government of the Russian Federation. Simply put, the Central Bank has frozen any external payments from Russia to unfriendly countries, with the exception of foreign trade transactions for the purchase of Russian goods. At the same time, Vladimir Putin has already announced that soon unfriendly countries will be able to buy Russian goods only for Russian currency.

"Restrictions were imposed on the movement of capital, a ban on the sale of securities by foreign investors and a ban on their withdrawal of funds from the Russian financial system," the regulator noted.

By the middle of next week, the Central Bank will develop a procedure for transferring European consumers to settlements in rubles for gas. It is likely that this document will become the basis for the subsequent transfer of our "partners" to rubles and other goods. As for the measures taken by the Central Bank to refuse to repay foreign bonds in foreign currency, in fact, our Central Bank deliberately goes to the technical default of Russian companies.

The total amount of corporate debt of Russian companies is estimated at $ 478 billion. In the next 3 years, Russian companies must pay over $200 billion to unfriendly countries. However, now Western commercial banks will have to forget about this money for a long time. This will lead to the default of Russian companies and to a decrease in their corporate ratings, which will not allow them to receive loans from Western banks in the future. But we will not need these loans from Western banks in the future. The actions of our Central Bank obviously demonstrate that he, and the state as a whole, simply became indifferent to the fact of declaring technical defaults.

At the moment, the Central Bank, together with the government, will decide who to pay the debts and who not. Perhaps, in the event of the unfreezing of the Central Bank's assets, the corporate debt will be repaid by a commensurate amount.

https://kremll.info/bank-rossii-zamorozi…

[Bach]

Economic war
Oil, gas, wheat, fertilizers: the EU on the precipice

The incompetence of the EU is currently even more evident than normal. Russian television shakes its head in disbelief at what Brussels is coming up with.

The incompetence of the EU is not new, but now it is becoming dangerous, because in order to please the Lord and Master in Washington, the EU leadership has imposed suicidal sanctions against Russia, which are already economically stalling the EU before Russia has even responded with counter-sanctions. This was the topic of a very interesting report by the Russian Europe correspondent in the weekly news review of Russian television on Sunday

Putin has put the EU in an extremely difficult position
Since the beginning of the week, Europe has been preparing for a series of crisis summits – the G7, NATO and, of course, the European Union. The plan was to consider new sanctions and consider how they could slowly get out of Russian coal, Russian oil and Russian gas.

"I believe that by early summer we will continue to reduce our dependence on Russian coal, and by autumn we will completely abandon it. We also want to reduce the quantities of oil and gas,“said German Economy Minister Robert Habeck.

A complete embargo on Russian hydrocarbons is currently not possible – that would trigger a recession, warned Chancellor Scholz. But recession – lower growth - is a weak term, in fact it's about the worst form of depression. Therefore, everything must be done wisely.

But on Wednesday, Vladimir Putin came and turned over the table on which they had neatly laid out their plans: gas for rubles. "No one knows how to react. Rubles must be purchased from the Central Bank. Putin is thus putting the West in an extremely difficult position, because Western sanctions are being led to the point of absurdity,“ der Spiegel writes.

The ruble was one, if not the main, goal of the sanctions: the devaluation of the Russian currency, "starvation" on euros and dollars and decoupling from the global credit market – all this, according to calculations, was to drive the Russian economy into bankruptcy. But instead of the expected panic and capitulation on all fronts, the opponent increases the stakes - there is no time for calm, systematic strangulation:

They had hoped that a little effort would be enough – saving water and electricity, turning down the thermostats, maybe eating a little less meat and giving up personal transport on weekends - but no, now they can escape the reverse knockout effect of the sanctions. It only remains for them to ask themselves: why us?

"In the existing contracts, the currency in which payments are made is fixed. As a rule, it is the euro or the dollar, and we must proceed from this, “ Olaf Scholz said.

They have frozen the assets of the Central Bank of Russia, which are invested not only in dollars and euros, but also in their own government bonds. And now they suddenly remember contracts. Well, you can re-close them in rubles at the exchange rate of the Central Bank.

"Of course, you can tell us that this year they will easily replace 111.5 billion cubic meters of gas. But in reality, without a deindustrialization of Europe, without a collapse of the public utility sector in Europe, it is impossible to refuse to buy Russian gas. The proposal on our part is very simple. We keep our deliveries, our obligations in terms of quantities and pricing formulas, we do not change anything except the currency of payment. In this regard, the idea is simple. If you want to get Russian gas, change the contracts," said Konstantin Simonov, director of the National Energy Security Fund.

By insisting on the former instrument of mutual settlements, Europe is de facto offering Russia to supply it with gas and other resources for free, that is, to exchange real goods for its unsecured bonds in the form of euros, which can then also be frozen at any time. And this is something that Russia certainly cannot get involved in. This is all the more true, since in a number of cases the possibility of mutual offsetting of gas in national currencies is already provided for in the existing contracts. In Bulgaria and Moldova, for example, the transition to rubles was accepted without any problems – there are banking mechanisms. In this regard, quite unexpectedly, some countries may come into possession of huge reserves of fossil fuels, which they will sell to their European neighbors for a commission.

Everyone understands that. This week, many had the impression that Europe is following the well-known pattern of accepting the inevitable: first denial, then anger, then haggling. The German government no longer insists on it, but recommends: "Since the state itself does not buy gas, one can only appeal to private providers to refuse payment in rubles," said Finance Minister Lindner.

The price of one thousand cubic meters of gas jumped to around $ 1, 500 due to the news about the ruble. Now the market is waiting to see how Gazprom's European partners will decide: if they follow the recommendation of the German Finance Minister and if Russia decides to stop deliveries, futures could return next week to the record level of March 7 in the amount of $ 3,800 per thousand cubic meters. This is the guaranteed disaster.

In 2019, the German Federal Office for Civil Protection simulated a scenario for an interruption in gas supply: the fact that the industry is at a standstill is not even half the problem, because it turned out that social institutions – hospitals, schools, nursing homes – would not be able to provide people with hot meals, and that private households would switch to burning what is at hand. And that means injuries and fires – the emergency services would be overwhelmed. This is a scenario for temporary difficulties, but if this becomes the norm, Germany runs the risk of falling back into the 19th century and the flourishing welfare state will be destroyed. Even the heating system will no longer exist. This is not Russian propaganda, this is what The world writes.

And the green utopia with which Baerbock and Habeck lured the voters, decarbonization, carbon neutrality – all these trillions of euros of high–tech from the fairyland - has disappeared. The sanctions you have devised yourself only allow an energy transition for Germany: not to renewable energies, but to the most traditional energy sources in the form of brown coal from the Ruhr area.

And even if Mrs. Ursula von der Leyen and the German Greens can still seduce the Europeans for a while with the fairy tale of salvation by wind turbines and solar panels, they will soon enough stop believing this. "That is why, as Europeans, we want to diversify supplies from Russia to suppliers whom we trust, who are our friends and who are reliable," von der Leyen said.

It is unclear why Russia has become an unreliable supplier, when even now Gazprom is still pumping fuel to Europe through the Ukrainian pipeline. But for von der Leyen, the USA is a reliable supplier and the fact that the Americans diverted their liquefied natural gas to Asian premium markets this autumn has been forgotten. Biden has promised 15 billion cubic meters for this year, a tenth of what Europe gets from Russia. So that's nothing at all. However, these volumes may increase in the future if the appropriate infrastructure is built, that is, not very soon.

"A liquefied gas terminal requires 1.5 years of planning and 3.5 years of construction time. This is common practice. But what is approved on paper, Germany usually has to multiply by 3 or 4, as in the case of the Berlin airport, “ Robert Habeck clarified.

In theory, Putin could turn off the gas tap already by refusing to buy in rubles, but then Germany would no longer be able to trade surpluses with Poland and Ukraine, as it has done in recent months. Germany will heat with coal and firewood, take in refugees and spend one hundred billion euros on the modernization of the Bundeswehr. Something clearly does not fit together here, so the switch to the ruble is inevitable: if Germany does not want to, others will do it.

Austrian OMV subsequently stated that it wanted to continue paying Gazprom in euros, but it will probably be forced to change its mind.

"In Brussels, Scholz explained that it was a conscious decision by the EU not to include energy in the sanctions package, as some countries are very dependent on gas, oil and coal from Russia. Karl Nehammer, the Austrian Chancellor, made it clear: with us there will be no gas and oil embargo against Russia. This is not only unrealistic for Austria. Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary would also be severely affected,“ writes Die Zeit.

Poland with the greatest zeal urged its colleagues to immediately abandon Russian gas. Poland consumes only 20 billion cubic meters per year, half of which comes from Russia, but hopes to be able to switch to Norway by the end of 2022 – thanks to the small Baltic pipeline under construction.

The others are desperately searching. The German Energy Minister Habeck even made a rather humiliating trip to Qatar. Humiliating because, according to the German media, the country is almost a tyranny where human rights are violated and slave labour is used, and suddenly Habeck has to bow there. Habeck has returned from Doha elated - he has succeeded in negotiating a stable supply of liquefied gas, an energy partnership so to speak. But his joy at the success was short-lived. The East is delicate.

"Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi has dampened German expectations of a quick replacement for Russian gas: "It will take years." He cannot imagine anyone being able to replace Russian supplies in the short term. "Nobody can do that. To say that you can do without Russia today and to say that Qatar or other countries can replace it is ridiculous. It's not going to happen." Al-Qaabi denied reports of a long-term energy partnership between Germany and Qatar. Asked if such an agreement exists, he clearly replied, "No," Die Welt points out.

To offset the damaging effects of the fluctuating fuel market, the EU summit agreed to adjust the price mechanism - the cost of gas in the megawatt-hour price should not exceed a value yet to be determined. They wanted a market, not long-term contacts, and have arrived at a method of planned management. And they have also worked out a plan for centralised gas purchasing - for everyone at once - via Brussels and the bureaucracy there. And there are problems to be expected: for example, they have already procured Covid vaccines.

Russia has not yet announced counter-sanctions, but Europe is already in trouble. This is Lorient in France. Farmers are dumping mountains of soil and manure, blocking traffic on the city's roads. They cannot start sowing. Because of the price of gas, which accounts for up to 70 per cent of the cost of fertiliser, or because of the lack of fertiliser.

Russia and Belarus control 40 per cent of the potash fertiliser market, almost a quarter of the ammonia export market, 14 per cent of the urea market and the same share for phosphates. Farmers' costs have already tripled or quadrupled. The Wall Street Journal writes that for farmers, this is a nightmare out of a horror movie. From Argentina to Indonesia, growers are drastically reducing their acreage and in Germany, greenhouses are empty. In the long term, the supply of wheat, rice, soybeans, maize and vegetable oils will fall drastically. North Africa is facing famine due to food shortages and Europeans will see a significant drop in quality due to loss of income.

Spanish fishermen burn tyres on the bridge in Ayamont. They want to prevent local seafood wholesalers from going to Portugal - where they are still cheaper because diesel is not as expensive. The authorities are cracking down, but diesel stocks in Europe are only enough for one month, even though they promise to help Ukraine.

The price of a barrel of Brend is $115 on Saturday. And there is no good news that points to a price reduction. But there is bad news: Saudi Aramco's oil depot burnt down after an attack by Yemeni Hussites. In the Black Sea, the infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium was damaged by a storm - the oil market will lose about one percent of its volume.

"To put it in figures, it is about 1.1 million barrels per day. According to expert estimates, the recovery could take 1.5 to 2 months, and it is really a serious trigger for the market that this volume will not be delivered for now," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said.

When the pipeline will be able to deliver again depends not only on the skills of the engineers. On Saturday morning, the first sea mine was spotted near Istanbul, laid by Ukraine off Odessa and then blown out of its moorings by a storm. No one knows how many are now floating on the waves towards the Bosphorus, but for a proper assessment of the situation, these pictures are more important than all the charts and quotes about the high prices for gas and everything else.

Whether Europe will buy gas for roubles is not yet clear, but it must be noted that, to the delight of the US president, the EU's political leaders and their key figures have not voiced any clear objections to sacrificing the public good in a protracted economic war with Russia. Perhaps this will not last long, because in this context German polls are very interesting: according to surveys by FOCUS magazine, a majority of Germans are in favour of punishing Russia in some way, but the same majority is not prepared to pay a single cent for it.

[SDX]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Bach

Economic war
Oil, gas, wheat, fertilizers: the EU on the precipice

"And we will all go down together."

[Jay-P.]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door SDX

"And we will all go down together."

Een Partouze

[Vlad]

Een lijst van internationale bedrijven die in Rusland actief waren/zijn en hoe ze reageren op de situatie.

[Bach]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door SDX

"And we will all go down together."

Een loose loose more strategie wordt bevoorkeurd door de VS in plaats van de win win strategie die China voorstelt. De enige prijs die de VS voor een win win zouden dienen te betalen is haar hegemonisch project laten varen en China een plaats gunnen in een multipolaire wereld.

Rusland zegt nu dat ze haar gas niet gratis gaan leveren en vraagt (zonder de goedkope prijzen noch te leveren hoeveelheden aan te passen) betaling in haar eigen munt in plaats van geblokkeerde of te blokkeren dollars en euro's, maar de G7 (zeg maar degenen die bepalen wat er in earpiece Joe's oor gefluisterd wordt) wijst dit af. De gevolgen zullen zich vooral in Europa doen voelen als men die mannetjesputter mentaliteit niet wat terug schroeft.

[Dade]

We kunnen dit heel snel oplossen, we veranderen van regering en brengen mensen aan de macht die de vlaamse belangen dienen en niet die van wat oorlogscriminelen van over de oceaan.
Maar ja, we zitten in vlaanderen, land van de laffe achterbakse patattenboeren.

[Erra555]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Boduo

het gaat niet over een munt.
Het gaat over de waarde van goud.
Een gouden Krugerrand was in 2004 +/- 120 € waard.
Nu, 18 jaar later is dat +/- 1900 €.
Wat is er nog zo veel gestegen in waarde ???

Bitcoin o.a.

[gunter5148]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Jan van den Berghe

Wat is er dan wel vorige week gebeurd?

Er is een nieuwe goud-raam opengegaan.

De roebel stijgt vandaag 7% in waarde.

https://www.wisselkoers.nl/russische_roebel

Of, we maken aan de levende lijve de "onzichtbare hand" van Adam Smith mee. Anders gezegd, je kan lang gelijk krijgen, maar je kan maar 1 keer gelijk hebben.

ik ben te snel geweest. 8,5% stijging.... (1055u)

[gunter5148]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Dade

We kunnen dit heel snel oplossen, we veranderen van regering en brengen mensen aan de macht die de vlaamse belangen dienen en niet die van wat oorlogscriminelen van over de oceaan.
Maar ja, we zitten in vlaanderen, land van de laffe achterbakse patattenboeren.

Het economisch hart van de wereld zit in de city van londen, frankfurt en brussel.
de financiële elite beschouwt de us nog steeds als "de kolonies."
lagarde zal nu snel kleur moeten bekennen.
het bestaande systeem is per dag aan het afbrokkelen, en buiten een uitbreiding van de grondoorlog is er NIETS dat de eur/doll banken nog kunnen doen.

Dus verwacht u maar aan escalatie, waarschijnlijk door de reeds lang voorspelde "false flag."

[Nr.10]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Bach

Economic war
Oil, gas, wheat, fertilizers: the EU on the precipice

Uit het genoemde artikel:

(...)

But on Wednesday, Vladimir Putin came and turned over the table on which
they had neatly laid out their plans: gas for rubles. “Nobody knows how to
react. Rubles must be bought from the Central Bank. With this, Putin is putting
the West in an extremely difficult position, because Western sanctions are being
taken ad absurdum,” writes Der Spiegel.

(...)

Machinevertaling naar het nederlands:

(...)

Maar woensdag kwam Vladimir Poetin en draaide de tafel om waarop ze
hun plannen netjes hadden uiteengezet: gas voor roebels. "Niemand weet
hoe te reageren. Roebels moeten worden gekocht bij de Centrale Bank.
Hiermee zet Poetin het Westen in een uiterst moeilijke positie, omdat
westerse sancties worden herleid tot het absurde", schrijft Der Spiegel.

(...)

[gunter5148]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Dade

kijk , kijk, een tweedekker

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/i...?itok=nhgvYPGQ

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/i...?itok=dHXhcEcf

Schitterend om te zien, dat waarover ik al 25 jaar mijn kop breek, nu gewoon gebeurt.

Hard money.

[Nr.10]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Vlad

Een lijst van internationale bedrijven die in Rusland actief waren/zijn en hoe ze reageren op de situatie.

Komt van een Amerikaanse professor. In Rusland mogen de Amerikanen vertrekken, weest gerust.

[Gipsy]

Oorspronkelijk geplaatst door Vlad

Een lijst van internationale bedrijven die in Rusland actief waren/zijn en hoe ze reageren op de situatie.

Interessante lijst, bedankt.